Flop decision with AA

ElGiganteElGigante Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
edited December 2018 in Live Poker Hands
2/3 NL. Friday night 9pm decent game.

Utg bad reg limps with a $500 stack which is dwindling Down from 1000. Folds to me on B I have $400 as I just topped off. I make it $20. B calls. He’s a station with 500.

Flop 60$. 9s10s3c. I C bet 40. B folds. Utg makes it 95.

I think utg would open 99 and 1010 so only 33 makes a set here. 910s for sure make sense but usually they are raised much larger here so I doubt it. So with this guy being pretty wide here I figured he would have a ton of FDs, OESDs, and pair plus draws.

Thoughts on this range?

What’s the play?

Comments

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,546 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ElGigante wrote: »
    910s for sure make sense but usually they are raised much larger here so I doubt it

    ???

  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭
    I am checking flop or betting small like 40% pot. This is a very connected dynamic board... a board AA hates. If turn is a brick or a Broadway now bet 2/3 to 3/4 If turn completes any draw just check and try to get to showdown
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 291 ✭✭✭
    Is this a check-raise from utg? I assumed you were on button, but now I see another caller was “on B”, so it’s a bit confusing.

    Also, the location of the As is very relevant here.
  • pokerdj4pokerdj4 NYRed Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    Its a little confusing to understand where you are. Are you on the BTN or BB? From the wording it appears you are on the BB. From the BB I would elect to bet, and look to get it in versus the mostly draws villain has. Of course, this is all depending on if you believe villain would raise his draws. Lets imagine for a second he would raise his draws.
    The range I give villain pre is:
    99-22,AJo-A9o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,ATs-A2s,KJs-K2s,QJs,Q9s-Q5s,J9s-J6s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-64s,54s

    I can see this making sense for a limp call from a station. Villain willl have 32 flush and 24 OESD combos on this flop. Would he make this play with sets/two pair? Some players like to slow play hands like that even when the board is connected.

    Lets imagine he does play sets and two pair this way along with his draws. Our Aces will still have at least 52% eq.

    Lets take away the sets and two pairs. We will have 62% eq against his draws, I'd still want to shove to his bet (especially is we have the As (which blocks roughly 7 combos of A high flush draws). It's a high variance spot for sure, however if I felt villain would do this with a wide range of hands, I'd jam.
  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 90 ✭✭
    Travis wrote: »
    I am checking flop or betting small like 40% pot. This is a very connected dynamic board... a board AA hates. If turn is a brick or a Broadway now bet 2/3 to 3/4 If turn completes any draw just check and try to get to showdown

    It's a bad board for AK..but for AA it's not the worst. We aren't fist pumping but I'm definitely betting! There are so many hands that will call that we beat and there are too many cards that hurt us to just give them a free card.

    Villian is going to check raise with some made hands 99-TT-T9....and if he is limping with TT and 99, does he limp with JJ and QQ? Even KK could be a hand he was slow playing. Add in the draws.

    Call the check raise and evaluate on the turn.

    Is he aggressive and tricky? Will he stack off light? IF yes, then we can put in a 3bet here and play for stacks.
  • Loveomaha3223Loveomaha3223 Red Chipper Posts: 6
    Educate me.... are GTO players and math guys ever factoring in the implied odds of playing marginal hands conservatively early on in a session to win a big pot later when you have an aggressive opponent drawing dead. And yes I would rate AA in this specific hand as a moderately strong hand when you are behind you are in pretty bad shape when you are ahead you are slightly better than 50 pct.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,797 -
    Educate me.... are GTO players and math guys ever factoring in the implied odds of playing marginal hands conservatively early on in a session to win a big pot later when you have an aggressive opponent drawing dead. And yes I would rate AA in this specific hand as a moderately strong hand when you are behind you are in pretty bad shape when you are ahead you are slightly better than 50 pct.

    Since as far as I know there are no GTO meta-game solvers, the answer there is no. I know of many math guys who manipulate their table image, so yes.
    Moderation In Moderation

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