# 32 Times Pocket Pair -- Never Hit a Set

ragin_cajun
Red Chipper Posts:

**47**✭✭
Last 4 sessions, I've started counting how many times I'm dealt a pocket pair, and NOT flopped or turned a set. I'm up to 32 times in a row now....32 times I've been dealt a pocket pair and whiffed.

I should flop a set once every 8 times...so how unlikely is this? What are the odds of never flopping or turning a set in that many attempts? Must be really unlikely, right? How would I calculate that?

I should flop a set once every 8 times...so how unlikely is this? What are the odds of never flopping or turning a set in that many attempts? Must be really unlikely, right? How would I calculate that?

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## Comments

1,796-However, I'd suggest the issue is not so much how you would calculate that as why you would.

47✭✭1,796-4,546✭✭✭✭✭By the way @ragin_cajun , there are many probabilities that are easier to calculate by figuring out the opposite and then subtracting that from 1 (100%), so if you want to calculate probabilities you should keep this trick in mind. Sometimes there are many ways something

canhappen, but fewer ways theycan'thappen. So that little trick saves a lot of work. It's easier to calculate not flopping a set because there's only one way to do it - all 3 cards have to miss you. To calculate the probability of flopping a set, you would have to add together the probability of the first card hitting and the next 2 cards missing, the first card missing and the second card hitting and the 3rd card missing, and the first 2 cards missing and the third card hitting.Note that doing it this way means we're really calculating the probability of flopping a set, quads, or full house (flopping a set or better). Flopping exactly a set and no better would be harder.

The chance that the first card misses is 48/50, the second card misses 47/49, and the third card misses 46/48. Multiply those and subtract it from 1, = .118.

455✭✭✭The law of probability has a lot more time and patience than we do lol

Yes my count has gone over 100 more than once

3,832✭✭✭✭✭1,796-47✭✭1,684-Endeavor to only tell "good beat" stories (like when you XR a gutshot, bink it on the turn and stack a flopped set!) It will make you happier and more interesting.

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744✭✭✭I wish i could go 32 times without hitting one

1,684-This is the length of one millions streaks trying to hit a set.

The line at 32 is starting to get into the tail, but nothing crazy.

As your streak grows, remember that the cards have no memory. Going from 32-40 is just at likely as going from 0-8.

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162✭✭3,832✭✭✭✭✭4,546✭✭✭✭✭I was going to say "careful what you wish for", but I didn't want to jinx him :)

90✭✭I've never counted in my life. Like jeffnc said (or Doug Hull) the cards have no memory. They don't care how many times in a row they have hit a set..they don't care how many times the flush didn't come it...or how many times AA got beat on the river.

It now is more of a psychological issue than anything. You get that pair of 8's...and instead of thinking how best to play your hand and focusing on the action, you are probably focusing on the fact you haven't hit a set for X times in a row. When...it doesn't matter! It will never matter! Ever. Like, never ever.

One session you will flop three sets, and now your ratio becomes 1 out of 14. It doesn't balance out until thousands and thousands of hands!

Let the counts go and play your best poker!

4,546✭✭✭✭✭1,796-True assuming Candide overlooked an overly high hit rate in sessions preceding the current anti-Panglossian streak.

4,546✭✭✭✭✭