32 Times Pocket Pair -- Never Hit a Set

ragin_cajunragin_cajun Red Chipper Posts: 47 ✭✭
Last 4 sessions, I've started counting how many times I'm dealt a pocket pair, and NOT flopped or turned a set. I'm up to 32 times in a row now....32 times I've been dealt a pocket pair and whiffed.

I should flop a set once every 8 times...so how unlikely is this? What are the odds of never flopping or turning a set in that many attempts? Must be really unlikely, right? How would I calculate that?

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,465 -
    Not flopping a set over 32 consecutive opportunities is about... a 2% event I think.

    However, I'd suggest the issue is not so much how you would calculate that as why you would.
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  • ragin_cajunragin_cajun Red Chipper Posts: 47 ✭✭
    to better understand how to calculate probability. so..how'd you determine it's a 2% event?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,465 -
    edited December 2018
    Probability of flopping a set is 0.118, probability of not flopping one is (1-0.118), doing that 32 consecutive times is (1-0.118)**32 ~ 0.02. Looks alright, but there's a voice in the back of my head telling me I need to use the binomial theorem to do this rigorously. In which case the way to check is to get @Doug Hull to simulate it.
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  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I believe it's as straightforward as that calculation. 1.8% to be a bit more precise.

    By the way @ragin_cajun , there are many probabilities that are easier to calculate by figuring out the opposite and then subtracting that from 1 (100%), so if you want to calculate probabilities you should keep this trick in mind. Sometimes there are many ways something can happen, but fewer ways they can't happen. So that little trick saves a lot of work. It's easier to calculate not flopping a set because there's only one way to do it - all 3 cards have to miss you. To calculate the probability of flopping a set, you would have to add together the probability of the first card hitting and the next 2 cards missing, the first card missing and the second card hitting and the 3rd card missing, and the first 2 cards missing and the third card hitting.

    Note that doing it this way means we're really calculating the probability of flopping a set, quads, or full house (flopping a set or better). Flopping exactly a set and no better would be harder.

    The chance that the first card misses is 48/50, the second card misses 47/49, and the third card misses 46/48. Multiply those and subtract it from 1, = .118.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 442 ✭✭✭
    I have had my count go WAY higher than just 32. If you think about it that's only 4 times you didn't flop a set....
    The law of probability has a lot more time and patience than we do lol


    Yes my count has gone over 100 more than once
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,699 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,465 -
    On a related note, I'm now accepting nominations for the RCP Unluckiest Player Of The Year Award.
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  • ragin_cajunragin_cajun Red Chipper Posts: 47 ✭✭
    I’m at 40 times now.
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,647 -
    Why are you counting? Does that make you a better player or just a "just so story"

    Endeavor to only tell "good beat" stories (like when you XR a gutshot, bink it on the turn and stack a flopped set!) It will make you happier and more interesting.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 732 ✭✭✭
    You lucky bastard....Last 3 I have flopped I have lost a total of $3,000 getting it all in on the flop and having villain hit river with less than 20% equity.

    I wish i could go 32 times without hitting one
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,647 -
    edited December 2018
    sa8p25a1wksw.jpg


    This is the length of one millions streaks trying to hit a set.

    The line at 32 is starting to get into the tail, but nothing crazy.

    As your streak grows, remember that the cards have no memory. Going from 32-40 is just at likely as going from 0-8.


    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 17 ✭✭
    I got into the 50s once. It's so damn frustrating. When I finally hit one, a set of 4s, I bet and everyone folded.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,699 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Sully wrote: »
    You lucky bastard....Last 3 I have flopped I have lost a total of $3,000

    I was going to say "careful what you wish for", but I didn't want to jinx him :)

  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 90 ✭✭
    I'll be honest.
    I've never counted in my life. Like jeffnc said (or Doug Hull) the cards have no memory. They don't care how many times in a row they have hit a set..they don't care how many times the flush didn't come it...or how many times AA got beat on the river.

    It now is more of a psychological issue than anything. You get that pair of 8's...and instead of thinking how best to play your hand and focusing on the action, you are probably focusing on the fact you haven't hit a set for X times in a row. When...it doesn't matter! It will never matter! Ever. Like, never ever.
    One session you will flop three sets, and now your ratio becomes 1 out of 14. It doesn't balance out until thousands and thousands of hands!

    Let the counts go and play your best poker!
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well.... technically, since our lives are not infinitely long, then it's not really supposed to even out. Assuming you've run average in the past, then if you hit a bad streak of say 40 misses in a row, then you're expected to run average in the future from here on out. Which means, overall you're pegged to be a lifetime loser at hitting sets on schedule! Bummer.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,465 -
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Well.... technically, since our lives are not infinitely long, then it's not really supposed to even out. Assuming you've run average in the past, then if you hit a bad streak of say 40 misses in a row, then you're expected to run average in the future from here on out. Which means, overall you're pegged to be a lifetime loser at hitting sets on schedule! Bummer.

    True assuming Candide overlooked an overly high hit rate in sessions preceding the current anti-Panglossian streak.
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  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭✭✭
    True, those tend to not get complained about :)

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