Missing value with a 5 high flush

DeadliftsDeadlifts Red Chipper Posts: 120 ✭✭
Line check please (50NL online):

Hero: BTN-- :4c :5c --$75.65
Villain: BB--$49.25

Pre: Hero opens 3x, V calls, Pot: $1.75

Flop: :Jc :4s :Kc
V checks, hero bets 1/2 pot, V calls
**I opted to cbet here because my hand is quite vulnerable, and there are plenty of turn & river cards I can bet on if need be. This flop also connects well with my range (I feel), in that I can rep a K or J; but there are also plenty of hands villain can continue with

Turn: :7h
x/x

River: :Qc
V bets 1/2 pot, Hero??

Not sure how to place spoilers in the post, but I can put results in the comments. I am thinking I missed value on the turn here, thoughts?

Comments

  • pokerdj4pokerdj4 NYRed Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    Any reads on villain? Specifically, is he 3 betting light out of the bb or folding a lot to steals? Does he call with his suited connectors? I like the line you took and I don’t think we are missing any value. Below I explain why. If you do not want to post the spoiler, please dm me.

    Lets imagine he is calling with: 99-22,AJo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-QTo,JTo,ATs-A2s,KTs-K7s,QTs-Q7s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s 288 combos.
    On this flop we have 64% eq against this range. Betting is fine. How would v play his top pairs? I think v would check call his made hands except his sets, and two pairs as the board is coordinated and if he has a big hand, he may want to get the chips in now. H bets, V calls with top pair 39 combos middle pair 33 combos flush draw 21 combos and oesd at 16
    Range: AJo,KQo,KTo-K9o,QJo-QTo,JTo,KTs-K7s,QTs,JTs-J9s,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac8c,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,Qc9c,Qc8c,Qc7c,Tc9c,Tc8c,9c8c,9c7c,8c7c,8c6c,7c6c,6c5c
    The 7h gives V 58% eq against us. Without any info on V, I’d elect to check. I think his flop continuing range is mostly top pair and middle pair hands I don’t think he would fold to a bet here. We can’t value bet, no worse hand would call, no better hand would fold.
    River V bets half pot. Lets say he has 15 combos of flushes, all beat us. 14 two pair combos, 27 top pair combos and I don’t think he would bet with his middle pairs. I like calling (unless villain is going to showdown to much) then I’d elect to raise and hope to get a call from his two pairs and MAYBE his top pairs. Fold to a reraise.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,983 ✭✭✭✭✭
    it is somewhat inconsistent to say this flop hits my range so my range wants to bet, a blank falls on turn so i want to check.
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 281 ✭✭✭
    Deadlifts wrote: »
    Line check please (50NL online):

    Hero: BTN-- :4c :5c --$75.65
    Villain: BB--$49.25

    Pre: Hero opens 3x, V calls, Pot: $1.75

    Flop: :Jc :4s :Kc
    V checks, hero bets 1/2 pot, V calls
    **I opted to cbet here because my hand is quite vulnerable, and there are plenty of turn & river cards I can bet on if need be. This flop also connects well with my range (I feel), in that I can rep a K or J; but there are also plenty of hands villain can continue with

    Turn: :7h
    x/x

    River: :Qc
    V bets 1/2 pot, Hero??

    Not sure how to place spoilers in the post, but I can put results in the comments. I am thinking I missed value on the turn here, thoughts?

    Why do you think that your turn bet is a value bet and not a bluff?
  • DeadliftsDeadlifts Red Chipper Posts: 120 ✭✭
    @persuadeo you are absolutely correct, I fully realize now that my mindset is inconsistent here, I now see this as a hand that I could have gotten value on all 3 streets.

    @pokerdj4 thank you as well for you input, it's nice to see a detailed breakdown, which is something I did with poker cruncher afterward. To your point about villain in this hand, the only info I have that might make a difference, is he was caught riding 98s from EP to showdown with a busted draw. The results were pretty similar to what you had mentioned. V bet 1/2 pot OTR, so I raised 3x, V folds. I'm not sure honestly if overtime my raise OTR is + or -EV

    @AceFromSpaceKK I would have to look at the numbers, but I'm not entirely sure that a bet here on the turn would be for value; seeing as I would have to be ahead of villain's range at least 50.1% technically for it to be a value bet.
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 70 ✭✭
    edited December 2018
    The first thing I thought is that the flop hits your range but really smashes V's range too. Your BU open range is more diluted if you think about it. Sure you have all the JJ-AA but he's loaded with broadway cards and has much less weaker stuff than most normally wide BU RFI ranges..I'd surely FCB and probably TCB for maybe 1/3 pot. If you miss then hope for free Showdown. Since you did hit ur low flush I'd play call the riv only. OR i'd raise his riv lead but make it smaller. If you re-raise and V comes over the top then what? Unless he's crazy you're most likely beat. You do get value with a small raise from V's made flushes and maybe straights and 2P's

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file