IMPLIED ODDS ??

obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 70 ✭✭
Here's a hand that you math wizards might help me... Not long and thanks in advance

6-max 20NL (117bb effective/hero)
Hero in CO opens :Qs :9s for 2.5bb
I get 3b from BB for 7.5bb (I have only 20 hands and it's her 2nd 3b {40/15/14})

FLOP :As :Ks :Jd (15.5bb)
V leads out 15bb, I flat
Against worst case scenario JJ+ AK (or any) I have 33% pot odds and 13 outs..
TURN :8d (45bb) . My outs stay the same but now her AdKd is a better flush draw and top 2

She pots it again (45bb) and now I'm asking myself if I have enough implied odds to call (95bb effective)

I'm just not sure if my math is correct. I thought if I call and hit I'll win my 95+ her 95 which would be 235bb total assuming it all goes in on the river.
My math was 235/45 <-- to call which is about 20% pot odds and I'm still about 25% to hit..

How badly did I get this wrong? Thanks again . (no i didn't hit and folded, she x'd the riv with top set...

Comments

  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    You can only count the pot...plus what extra money you will win from her stack. Pot has 90 Big Blinds in it after her bet. You are calling 45 BB to win the 90 BB PLUS the remaining 49.5 in Villains stack assuming Villain pays off.
    139.5 / 45 for a non Ten Spade....Villain doesn't stack off if a ten hits.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 162 ✭✭
    You flopped the world, good time to raise
  • boyd148boyd148 Red Chipper Posts: 92 ✭✭
    edited January 11
    I think you are counting the :Ts twice. You only have 12 likely outs.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭
    The other thing to consider is would she actually pay off, when considering implied odds? Doubt she is getting all in wif another spade hits, maybe if the straight hits but on this board thats a big maybe so your implied odds are pretty slim

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