Adjusting to a casino with a quads bonus - limping with pocket pairs

TooncesTDCTooncesTDC Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
I think I've convinced myself that it is wrong to open-limp with a small pocket pair even in scenarios with a generous bonus for quads, but I want to understand how bad of an EV play this is for limpers.

Let's assume that in a 1-3 game that quads pays a flat $200 if both hole cards play, and you are allowed to rabbit hunt if you have a set (the rules at my local casino). The odds of either flopping a set and getting quads by the river OR flopping quads are about 1 in 136. That makes the bonus EV of a pocket pair, $1.47 which goes away if the raise is not called. However, if the hand makes it to the flop, than they will be raking $2 to $7 which they won't rake if the hand is resolved preflop, so I think this mitigates quite a bit the lost value of the pocket pair.

What I don't know is how much EV is typically lost by limping with a pocket pair over raising, assuming all decisions after the flop are still GTO. I know that raising is worth well less than $4, since I know that it is worth more EV to win the blinds than it is to be called.

Comments

  • JoeOffsuitJoeOffsuit Red Chipper Posts: 387 ✭✭✭
    Are you OK giving a straight draw or flush draw a free card on the river against your set in hopes of catching quads? (In a typical 1-3 game with maybe a $50 pot on the turn, I would think we would need a LOT more than a $200 incentive to slow play a set for quads here on a drawish board.)

    Most poker rooms I have seen with these bonus's require a minimum pot to payout these bonus's so you need to make sure you get this far, so if you wait for the river before you get the pot to the right size, when you get the river it will be hard to get your opponents to call any bets when you have the quads to the pair, another potential disaster.

    In most cases, just play your game regardless of the promo, just be sure to show your quads if the pot is big enough and everyone folds.



  • TooncesTDCTooncesTDC Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    In this particular game, if everyone folds to you with a set or a SF draw, then you are allowed to show your hand and rabbit hunt for the quads. So, the only time you might need to adjust your strategy is preflop with a pocket pair.
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 925 ✭✭✭✭
    If you raise small pairs (all pairs) in most games your not doing it to set mine. Your doing ti to take control of the pot and often steel it after the flop.

    Again it depends on the games you playing in...Many of the games I play in, steeling post flop and winning lots of small and medium pots is where the money is. Switching to set mining, because I might make $200 bonus as well is probably pretty bad.

    I rarely change my game because of promotions...well other then splash pots...It might be slightly wrong, but I look at the extra money I pay for promotions (that I dont' get fully back because I dont' play for promotions) to be my share of the advertising I play to attract bad players to my games...
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,758 ✭✭✭✭
    Eazzy wrote: »
    I rarely change my game because of promotions...well other then splash pots...It might be slightly wrong, but I look at the extra money I pay for promotions (that I dont' get fully back because I dont' play for promotions) to be my share of the advertising I play to attract bad players to my games...
    On one side I agree with you. We want to play against bad players and take their money, and not to win a promotion. And for us studied players, promotion is mostly an additional rake.

    But I think that you've to still adjust your strategy to the expectations and bad strategy of the other players who play or hope for the promotion. Especially in high hand promotion (some boats, quads, etc.) and some villains will change their line - like limping their small PP in hope to hit quads -, then I think we, as studied player, know how to hence have to adjust our strategy - like by being more aggro and sizing bigger when I see someone who is going to follow a rather passive inelastic line in hope to hit quads.
    Only promotions like bad beat jackpot, who are basically lottery. shall not change the dynamic of the game - thus doesn't requiring an adjustment.

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