1-2 River Decision

Steve JonesSteve Jones Red Chipper Posts: 95 ✭✭
edited December 2018 in Live Poker Hands
Typical 1-2 game, lots of limping, people playing their cards face up.

Hero on button $400 dealt :4s :4d
Villain older asian in BB covers

Utg 1 raises to $10 4 callers
With $50 already in pot and position I call, BB calls.

Flop :Ad :4c :Qh

Checks around, I was hoping for a bet from someone, but figured Id check to disguise my hand.

Turn :8s

Villain leads for $50 folds around to me, I call. I am guessing he has an Ace, or 2 pair, or maybe a set sometimes.

River :Jh

Villain leads for $50 again, hero?

I know Im ahead of most of his range, but is this a raise fold, raise call, or just a call?

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,797 -
    In a typical $1/$2 game with players as you describe, you have to bet the flop IMO. On the end, it's a raise-something. You can probably fold if shoved on.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Steve JonesSteve Jones Red Chipper Posts: 95 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    In a typical $1/$2 game with players as you describe, you have to bet the flop IMO. On the end, it's a raise-something. You can probably fold if shoved on.

    I agree, and usually I will bet about half pot here, but figured Id check to disguise, and wanted to mix up my check in position range, just in case anyone is paying attention, prolly a dumb decision because no one is paying attention haha.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,797 -
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    In a typical $1/$2 game with players as you describe, you have to bet the flop IMO. On the end, it's a raise-something. You can probably fold if shoved on.

    I agree, and usually I will bet about half pot here, but figured Id check to disguise, and wanted to mix up my check in position range, just in case anyone is paying attention, prolly a dumb decision because no one is paying attention haha.

    The funny thing is the one player who IS actually paying attention will conclude you're just betting cos you're on the button and give you action.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Steve JonesSteve Jones Red Chipper Posts: 95 ✭✭
    Yea, you are right, missed a street on flop. Anyway I will post results tomorrow, so far on river we have raise fold? How much to raise fold here?
  • ErinningErinning Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    you should be betting the flop, to build the pot and get value from many hands.

    As played, I would say river is a raise fold, cause at these stakes, river 3 bets are almost always the nuts. He maybe slow playing pocket Aces because the flop was so dry.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,797 -
    I probably make it about $150 and hate life if I get shoved on.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Steve JonesSteve Jones Red Chipper Posts: 95 ✭✭
    Ok not too much traffic on this forum, so heres what happened. I decided to make it 115. I figured this was the size he could call with a worse hand and if he jammed, I still had room to fold. Not too sure I could have folded for about another 150ish tho, maybe. He called and mucked.

    I was thinking this was a bet and puke fold on river spot, and that seems to be the correct line from the responses, so thanks.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,832 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You have a set facing a weak bet on the river, don't expect much fanfare over this hand.
  • Steve JonesSteve Jones Red Chipper Posts: 95 ✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    You have a set facing a weak bet on the river, don't expect much fanfare over this hand.

    I agree, but this is an interesting spot when you think about the fact that we may need to raise fold a set on river with no obviohs str8 or flush on board.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,832 ✭✭✭✭✭
    He never has it, and you are never needing to fold. It is a crappy overpole turn, same bet line, indicating protection plus thin value, or a heartless bluff.
  • Steve JonesSteve Jones Red Chipper Posts: 95 ✭✭
    He never has 888 here?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,832 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 1
  • ragin_cajunragin_cajun Red Chipper Posts: 47 ✭✭
    what does "overpole turn" mean?
  • Steve JonesSteve Jones Red Chipper Posts: 95 ✭✭
    what does "overpole turn" mean?

    He means his hand is polarized, meaning he either has a big hand or bluff. I dont think so tho, because most villains in this game dont understand bet sizing or hand strength. I believe his range here is merged, meaning he can make this bet with medium strength hands, and the nuts. This is why I posted the hand.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,832 ✭✭✭✭✭
    No, i use it as shorthand for "potentially unnnecessarily polarized," or to put it another way what incentive does villain have to use this sizing on turn?

    Then, we combine this information with the river sizing to see that he has now betting a wider range. There is no hand that beats Steve's that is incentivized to take this line. He's shut out Steve's gutters on the turn, and can't expect them to exist to bluff. Instead, he offers an attractive, merged price which will almost always be a thin value bet or a cheap bluff.

    We describe this as button clicking, and fits steve's description of his opponents. However, even if his worst fears are true, that in reality this villain is a secretly skilled player who understands that this bet has inducing power, and so shifts some nut hands into the merge to create light raises, it will still show a huge profit against the rest of those bets to raise 444 against this line.
  • Steve JonesSteve Jones Red Chipper Posts: 95 ✭✭
    Persuado, I agree with your last comment. I didnt think he was a secretly skilled player tho, I just thought he could be button clicking with 888, or possibly qqq. I still raised river tho, so yes on river with the weak bet, I was sort of comfortable that this was not a bet to induce. If it was, then I would have been very surprised, and prolly unable to fold with the stack sizes.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,832 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think the lesson is to read into his line over streets and synthesize the information. Yes, he is uncapped on turn but skewed toward the wrong hands because there is no reason to pot it. Then, everything changes and the probability of him inducing plummets. If anything, you should be overbetting river for value and now adding a few bluffs like j10, which should call turn with high IO when he does now bomb river with the rare top end.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,546 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This actually is a plausible line for some players holding KT, but there are many other hands he'd play the same way, and KT is not particularly likely to be played this way either. 88 is pretty unlikely for different reasons, not the least of which would be the bizarre turn/river bet combo. The same can be said for JJ. Set of aces or queens are unlikely given preflop action in addition to the betting mismatch. You are facing another set here rarely. (Although I've mostly stopped being amazed at showdown in $1/2 games, so go ahead and show me AA here, lol. Every decision here with AA could be explained by the way some players think.) You will typically be looking at something like Q8 or KQ or A9.

    I'm trying to work more minraises into my game, this might be an interesting spot. Did your J8 just get there to bad beat his weak ace? but aha he actually crushes you with Q8, he snap calls mwahahaha. Or, he might have the awareness to see how weak his river bet looks so he might expect a big raise to be a bluff and chew on that piece of beef jerky for a minute.

    On the flop, I think you have to ask yourself what exactly are you waiting for, and how likely is that to happen? The button is a good place to be. It's great to know what everyone else thinks of their hand, but it doesn't do you much good if you're just watching like it's TV. By the way, no one is going to put this in their database for "mixing up your checking in position range" - they're not going to think anything about it at all, because everyone simply slowplays sets on the flop period. With AT or AK, you'd have a point*

    Maybe you had a good reason for slowplaying, but I'm not reading it in your OP. How does betting scream "set" in this situation? (Sets always get slowplayed on the flop, remember?) Or to put it another way, why does your hand need disguising particularly right now? So put together all the reasons for slowplaying and see if that's what you need to do.
    https://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/issue168/david-sklansky-theory-of-poker-no-limit.php

    We can discuss the details of each, but briefly I don't think you're going to be especially happy with a K, J or T (25% of the deck) on the turn with 14 live cards out there that are heavily in the weak broadway range (including KJ, KT, JT) given the action so far. Also I'd say we're getting pretty borderline for #5 already at 5.5 SPR - $70 is not what I'd call a small pot at $1/2.

    * Which is not to say I'd check those either, but at least you'd have a point. But since we're talking about range and deception, betting AT here let's me bet my sets too. Actually, I get to bet my sets here just by virtue of the fact that I'm on the button and everyone checked. And if I were to show up with AK here at least once, then what on earth must I have next time I 3-bet from the button? You would be put in the database as "a smart guy who understands that AK is just a drawing hand, like I do."
  • Steve JonesSteve Jones Red Chipper Posts: 95 ✭✭
    edited January 1
    I checked back because there were so many people in the pot that checked before the preflop raiser. Usually everyone checks to the raiser so their range is uncapped till the raiser makes a bet. The raiser checked in this case, so I wanted to see if the ep players would come alive on turn after the pfr checked.

    I agree tho, this is a bet on flop almost always.

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