NLO8 3 way preflop

jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited January 2019 in Omaha Variants
NLO8 .01/.02 online 9 handed. Villain 1 is a loose player who likes to shove all in preflop sometimes. But when he puts in just a standard raise, it's usually a standard hand such as A2xx, A3xx, A4xx, 23xx. He will open shove some other crazy hands, but he is never folding once he raises. Villain 2 is unknown but has been quiet and tight. I happen to know the play of Villain 1 pretty well and have made a couple of big +EV plays against him that probably look very questionable to others at the table (assuming they've been paying attention), since I know he will get it in preflop really badly sometimes. Villain 2 had the chance to observe a couple of these plays.

Villain 1 raises to .06 with a .85 stack, I call with Ac2d3s8h and cover both. Villain 2 shoves with .95. Villain 1 calls and I call. Villain 2 shows Ts9c7s7h and Villain 1 shows As3h4h6s.

What do you think of Villain 2's play and my play?

Comments

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    For easier reading, the cards were:
    :AS::3H::4H::6S:
    :TS::9C::7S::7H:
    :AC::2D::3S::8H:
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,695 -
    You know what you're doing and V2 doesn't.
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  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    That is certainly the conventional wisdom.

    I was hoping this forum would get more traffic, hopefully in the future. So I guess this is more for me than anyone, but I analyzed this hand quite a bit because I've encountered this sort of thing before, and it's surprising.

    There are several perspectives in this hand. I'm using ProPokerTools simulation to look at equity/EV.

    1) From my perspective in the hand, I know my hand and can put villains on different ranges. Let's put Villain 1 on a top 20% range, and Villain 2 on a top 20% range.
    Villain 1: 38%
    Villain 2: 36%
    Hero: 27%
    From this perspective, my call was bad (from my point of view, I probably should have folded).

    We should probably consider that it's extremely difficult to really know what "top 20%" of hands really looks like. There is a chart with the hands ranked here, but good luck with that.
    http://www.propokertools.com/orderings/o8ordering.txt
    But I think we can assume there are a lot of AA, A2, and A w B (wheel card, Broadway card) hands in there.

    2) We can look at the actual hands.
    Villain 1: 25%
    Villain 2: 46%
    Hero: 29%
    This makes Villain 2 look like a genius. Would anyone have guessed he was so good here? This makes my call close to neutral given the money already in the pot, but still not good.

    3) We can look at it from Villain 2's perspective. If you put Villain 1 on 20% and me on 20%:
    Villain 1: 36%
    Villain 2: 28%
    Hero: 36%

    Actually not a good shove, because between Villain 1 and me, he should know Villain 1 is never folding, and I am sometimes folding. If he gets heads up with Villain 1, it looks like:
    Villain 1: 62%
    Villain 2: 38%
    Which is terrible.

    It's hard to see how Villain 2 thinks this can turn into a favorable situation, unless he specifically puts us on hands like we have, which as I said makes him look like a genius.

    But let's take it a step further. We could eliminate AA from both Villain 1's hand and my hand (which is perfectly reasonable given the action and our attributes - I certainly would not have flat called with AA). Because certainly getting crushed by AA is a big problem right?

    4) Using a ProPokerTools range of 20%!AA (top 20% hands without AA):
    Villain 2: 28%
    Villain 1: 36%
    Hero: 36%

    That's weird, exactly the same.

    Only by assuming pretty specific cards does Villain 2 come out looking like a champ here. In ProPokerTools I used the following syntax for Villain 1 and Hero (I am no expert at the complicated syntax) which means something like A-2 wheel cards-random card (no AA). (This will include some wheel card pairs in the range, like A228).

    5) ProPokerTools range of A[2-4][2-5]!AA
    Villain 2: 38%
    Villain 1: 31%
    Hero: 31%

    Kind of makes you rethink what you thought you knew about crap hands in PLO8, when other hands start blocking each other heavily.

    Even if you put just one hand with A and 2 or more wheel cards, it gets you up to neutral+, given the money in the pot!

    6) ProPokerTools range of A[2-4][2-5]!AA for Villain 1 and 20%!AA for Hero
    Villain 2: 32%
    Villain 1: 35%
    Hero: 33%

    This seems pretty surprising. I draw some conclusions from this:
    - You may have ways of creating an extremely gambley table image of yourself for free
    - There may be bizarre +EV spots hiding that have not been discussed in literature or forums anywhere
    - It's not just that Villain 1 and I are blocking each other's cards, it's also that when we do win, we lose a lot of equity by sometimes chopping one side of the pot or the other with each other. Villain 2 basically never chops his share with anyone.
    - It's often harder to get an edge on bad players than you thought (a bad player being one who hasn't thought this through, but naively thinks T977 actually looks like a good hi/lo hand.) Villain 2 had us crushed here, while I was muttering under my breath what a complete donkey he was.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,695 -
    You've made the compelling case for why big bet O8 is played PL and not NL.

    There's an ancient pXf video of Josephy playing an online PLO8 tournament. He plays medium rundowns throughout, talks complete nonsense, and final tables.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,364 ✭✭✭✭✭
    lol jeffnc x/r gamekat
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,695 -
    Incidentally, isn't a bigger problem with V2's play here that he only gets called in 1 spot? If your hand physically cannot make a low and it's odds on your opponent can, this must be bad.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,695 -
    edited January 2019
    Incidentally, isn't a bigger problem with V2's play here that he may only get called in 1 spot? If your hand physically cannot make a low and it's odds on your opponent can, this must be bad.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Incidentally, isn't a bigger problem with V2's play here that he may only get called in 1 spot? If your hand physically cannot make a low and it's odds on your opponent can, this must be bad.

    Yup I think I mentioned that. It's very bad.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2019

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