Confusion with The 2x-4x Rule

dukeroyaldukeroyal Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
Let’s say I have a flush draw on the flop and the only way to beat the villain is by hitting my flush. With 2 cards left I have about 35% equity, correct?

So if the villain bets pot I have 33% pot odds (excuse me if my terms are incorrect) so it is a +EV call correct?

So if the above is true than my confusion lies in the fact that in order for me to realize that 35% equity do I not have to see both cards? Do I not really only have 18% equity? (9 outs * 2 (one card))

And would you not then need someone to bet 1/4 pot to even BE?

So confused. Thanks for your help?

Best Answers

Answers

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,034 ✭✭✭✭
    Sully wrote: »
    b) as @Red mentioned you take into account implied odds. However, especially in the case of flush draws, it's hard to get paid as they are very visible and even harder to get value if OOP
    Some are non believer - naturally or bc you've a wild image
    Some have a hand "too strong to fold"
    Some have a worst FD

    So there is still room to get paid. How big is this room is the question
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 471 ✭✭✭
    LeChiffre wrote: »
    dukeroyal wrote: »
    Let’s say.

    This story only applies if the flop bet is an all-in by the way.
  • ChibberChibber Red Chipper Posts: 373 ✭✭✭
    OP check out:
    Poker Math That Matters
    By Owen Gaines
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,073 -
    Chibber wrote: »
    OP check out:
    Poker Math That Matters
    By Owen Gaines

    Doug Hull's book is excellent even tho it's not really for math geeks - it's very accessible:

    https://tinyurl.com/yctcab3k
    Moderation In Moderation
  • dukeroyaldukeroyal Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Thanks so much for everyone’s help. I am still working my way through the CORE program and haven’t done much study of implies odds yet (I will now).

    I am definitely guilty of calling the flop bet and folding on the turn because my equity all of a sudden went from 35% to 18% haha!

    So how are you playing your flush draws then? How much are you adding for implied odds?

    Because in the games I’m playing no one ever bets under half pot and playing a 2-way pot that is only going to give me 25% pot odds which doesn’t give me the 18% I need to see one card? Am I wrong?
  • dukeroyaldukeroyal Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    edited January 7
    Awesome thanks LeChiffre! This is starting to make more sense.
    Last question I think I have about this. Then if I call a flop bet with only 20% equity I need to win 5x my investment of 50. This makes sense.
    But what changes then if I call another 1/2 pot bet on the turn? Is it the same math but just recalculated with your turn bet?

    So to clarify my thinking :

    Pot size on flop : 100

    Villain 1/2 pot bet : 50

    Hero : Call 50 with 20% equity so need to win 5x of investment or 250 to be +EV

    Turn card : not the suit I’m chasing

    Villain 1/2 pot bet : 125

    Hero : calls 125 with 20% equity so I need 5x the investment or 625 to be +EV (which would be really hard to achieve)

    But maybe I pick up some outs have 25% equity then only need to win 4x my investment which is 500 which is a lot more attainable because if hero calls the turn bet the pot is already 500!! Man if this is right I’m going to have to be careful because I’m going to convince myself to chase way too many draws now haha.
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 471 ✭✭✭
    edited January 7
    dukeroyal wrote: »
    Hero : calls 125 with 20% equity so I need 5x the investment or 625 to be +EV (which would be really hard to achieve)

    That's indeed how you should look at it but I'd like to add it's not really that hard to achieve if you're in position for that price. You will have the ability to bet for value when checked to (doesn't have to be large of course given the price you paid on the turn) when you hit or call or raise villain's river bet. I would say in position you can still call against most opponents for that price. Out of position it's much harder since you rely on villain not to check back, which is very likely when the flush hits and you check to him. Of course you could consider donk betting but let's leave that aside for now. The point stands.

    Another factor should be how much you and villain have left behind. If that is already less than what your implied odds tell you he should still put in on later streets, you don't have the right implied odds!

    If villain bet pot on the turn, it's of course going to be even harder to call. In that case you can decide to either fold or consider a semi-bluff raise (an option you also have even if he bet 1/2 pot)
  • dukeroyaldukeroyal Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Man oh man! I feel like I can see clearly now haha! I can’t wait to play some draws now haha. I’ve got to go do the math on OESD’s, gutshots and different bet sizings now! Thanks LeChiffre!
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 471 ✭✭✭
    edited January 7
    dukeroyal wrote: »

    But maybe I pick up some outs have 25% equity then only need to win 4x my investment which is 500 which is a lot more attainable because if hero calls the turn bet the pot is already 500!!

    Makes sense right? If villain requires you to have 25% equity to call the bet, and you have 25% equity, you don't need much implied odds cause you're breaking even on a call :)

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file