HH: KK miss flop, face two all-ins

Matt SMatt S Red Chipper Posts: 29 ✭✭
1/3 NLHE, Hero has been at table about two orbits without a hand, $294 in stack. Much of the table is limp happy and likes to see the flop w/ ATC. Have not yet determined what minimum opens will be respected, as opens have been all over the place (if at all). Have not seen a heads-up flop yet. One of these Vs earlier called a $40 3-bet from the BB with 92o and ~$200 stack, R'd 9s full 2s. On to the hand.

3 limps to H in CO ($294) w/ :Ks :Kd , opens $20
B calls, SB folds, BB (92o V above) calls, limpers (including LJ) call

Flop ($116: $5 rake) :6c :7d :2h
BB shoves for $90
1 limper calls
LJ re-shoves for $175 total

Pot is now $471, H stack $274
What should H do?

Comments

  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 169 ✭✭
    I don't think it matters much what you do. The only thing I wouldn't do is call. Re-re-shove of fold.

    There's not much in the way of sane analysis here. Will you have 20% eq? 30%? 40%? There's just no path to an answer.

    So as yourself, kid, 'Do you feel lucky?'
  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 90 ✭✭
    Fist Pump All In.
    Plenty of other mid pairs and TT, JJ, 99. Some draws.
  • Loveomaha3223Loveomaha3223 Red Chipper Posts: 6
    Put all your chips in and hope for the best. With this type of table dynamic KK is good way too often to consider folding. Sometimes you will just lose but are giving up way too much long term in value if folding. Everything is poker is situational but I really wouldn't characterize Kk as missing the flop on 7 6 2 board either
  • ChibberChibber Red Chipper Posts: 371 ✭✭✭
    OP: think about the action. A flop shove followed by a call, then a shove over that. Even if your KK are good in this one spot, how often do you think they’ll be good if you played this hand 10x? A clear fold without any real thought based on information provided.
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 259 ✭✭✭
    It's good that you have solid info on the table and especially on BB. He's calling. That's great, but now you know he's going to price the limpers in because your iso is too small. My standard is 25 over 3 limps, but you have to make it bigger on this table... 35+.

    Agree w/ @Chibber... you have 3 players that have totally disregarded the fact that you raised this thing pre. Folding here is just fine.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,758 ✭✭✭✭
    A big info missing is how (loose) Villains are playing postflop ?

    Yes, they are unelastic ATC station pre - for that I'd also have raise bigger than 20 (and not only with KK, but as a standard sizing) - which is great because then you've card edge.
    But then how do they act postflop ? Are they going in light or only with great equity hands ? (Like would BB have continued with 92o on 9XX on only on 92X ?)

    Out of the blue, I'd fold. Yes it looks nitty and with a 2.5 SPR we wanted to play for stacks with KK on low rather discounted board. But considering the action, it's pretty sure we are behind. (Also note that even in the best situation - again TP, OESD and MP - we still hold 36% equity; we are favorite, but loosing the pot, in the best situation, 2/3 of the time.)

    Observation of their hands at showdown is precious info for the rest of the session..
  • Matt SMatt S Red Chipper Posts: 29 ✭✭
    Thanks @Red, I forgot to mention that. Table has been fit or fold postflop for the most part. Some floating with air and catching turns and rivers.

    I really wanted to just overshove and get it over with but I couldn't pull the trigger with 2 all-ins and the caller ahead of me, with one more to act behind. I just had a gut feeling of being crushed here against a set of 6s, 7s, or even AA from the BB. Am I being too nitty here?

    Remaining action:
    H folded, Button called, original all-in caller calls second all-in.

    Turn: :Ts checks down
    River: :Jc checks down

    The two all-ins chop with 78o. Callers didn't show.
  • (RCP Coach) Fausto(RCP Coach) Fausto RCP Coach Posts: 804 ✭✭✭✭
    edited January 7
    @Matt S first of all, the notion of raises not being respected mindest focuses u on the wrong things within poker that doesn’t benefit you. There are frequencies and somethings the opponent will do to much or little, not them “not respecting raises”

    Given the villains are extremely wide ure KK is a snap re shove all in as these players will shove plenty worse such as other PP, OESD and 7x at minimum which is plenty more than the hands that show up which could currently beat u

    Stop fearing the worst and embrace the times ure plenty ahead
    COACHING NOW AVAILABLE HERE
  • Matt SMatt S Red Chipper Posts: 29 ✭✭
    I think you're right on that mindset advice @Faustovaldez123 thanks.
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 334 ✭✭✭
    There's not much in the way of sane analysis here. Will you have 20% eq? 30%? 40%? There's just no path to an answer.

    Why not?

  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 169 ✭✭
    I don't think it matter much what you do. The only thing I wouldn't do is call. Re-re-shove of fold.

    There's not much in the way of sane analysis here. Will you have 20% eq? 30%? 40%? There's just no path to an answer.

    So as yourself, kid, 'Do you feel lucky?'
    LeChiffre wrote: »
    There's not much in the way of sane analysis here. Will you have 20% eq? 30%? 40%? There's just no path to an answer.

    Why not?

    There is a huge error cloud in any analysis.

    Show me otherwise.
  • AceBalaAceBala Red Chipper Posts: 1 ✭✭
    edited January 11
    My Two Cents, Being an Amature i would have mucked the same hand and taken a note on their All in range to adust their range.

    When Big blind showed , I would have called. The shove from LJ would make me To put him in Two Pair or a Set ( without knowing his range and watching his game).
    One additional thought is to calculate the POT odd. Our set will mostly be the nuts here and we have 8% odd to get there but the POT odd we are getting is 175:475 which is equal to 1:2.7 which is around 27% . I am not getting the right odd to call.. I will FOLD
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 334 ✭✭✭
    edited January 12

    There is a huge error cloud in any analysis.

    Show me otherwise.

    No idea what you're talking about, sorry.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,758 ✭✭✭✭
    LeChiffre wrote: »

    There is a huge error cloud in any analysis.

    Show me otherwise.

    No idea what you're talking about, sorry.

    I'd imagine he is trying to say that there is a (in his opinion, pretty big) margin of error when estimating equity.

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