Facing all-in when I have top pair on the dry board

ErinningErinning Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
Hello everyone, thank you for checking out.
It's 1-2 NL game. It's my second hand at that table. I played with the villain before. I had 300 stack, she had 320. The villain is a old lady who bluffs very very very little chance bc she shows her hand every time. However, sometime she overvalues her hand.
She raised to 15 from UG, I reraised to 45 with :Ah :Kh from CO. She called.
The flop is (Pot is 90)
:Ac :8c :2h
She checked, I bet 55, she called
The turn is (Pot is 200)
:QD:
She bet 75, I called
The river is (Pot 350)
:3d
she went to all-in(pot is 475), for me is 125 to call.
I am thinking should I call on the turn? If I call, it would be a good price for me to call on the river.
Or I should call turn then give up on the river? She seems like have AQs, QQ, AJ.
I only beat AJ, what's the way to play?
Thank you!

Comments

  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 334 ✭✭✭
    edited January 9
    Getting 2:1 on the turn if you are always calling river (she's practically jamming 200).

    You've already answered your own question: AJ is the only thing you beat on the turn, but I'd say it's extremely unlikely for her to donk bet the turn with that unless you've seen her do it before. Turn is already a fold imo. Thank her for letting you play perfectly.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,758 ✭✭✭✭
    Erinning wrote: »
    The turn is (Pot is 200)
    :QD:
    She bet 75, I called
    Calling here is a blunder IMHO (or at least a bad mistake).

    First, as pointed out by @LeChiffre , what does she donkbet with ? What do you beat / are beaten by ? And where does AK stand in your hand distribution ? (Spoiler: she is rep only hands which beat AK, AK is a bluff catcher against someone who is never bluffing, and you've way better hands to call with. Easy fold.)

    Second: when you c-bet flop with 55$ (I'd have bet smaller but that's another discussion), you set up a pot bet on turn. When she is betting 75, the leverage point is reached: it's playing for stack (either call-turn call river or raise turn) or fold. Calling turn and folding river is a terrible line.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Erinning wrote: »
    The turn is (Pot is 200)
    :QD:
    She bet 75

    Think for a second about how the hand played out, and how she must be perceiving your range. She raises from EP, which is strong. She should know that you know that's strong. Regardless of the strength this shows, you reraise. Unless you've been messing around recently, this is an obvious show of more strength and she calls anyway. An ace flops, the strongest card in the deck, with no other Broadway cards. A set of aces is the nuts, a set of 8s might be possible, but other than that AK is the nuts realistically. You bet into that scenario, and yet she still calls. Perhaps you only have KK and you're bluffing, but she'll have to wait and see. Or perhaps you went off the rails with AJs, so she might have a chance to beat you with AQ.

    A Q peels, and all of a sudden she doesn't have to wait and see any more. What changed? It seems ridiculous to fold AK here, but what exactly would she play this way and why? If she has AJ, then she must be putting you on AT to play this way. Does AT seem a likely hand for you? If you actually had KK, why would she donk bet here? Given the action, what hands might she have overplayed that she would play this way?

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