Live $1/3 Value Bet ?

Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
Live $ 1 / 3
I have $925 and Villain has me covered.

Average table...half rec players, half seem like decent players.

I’m in the Big Blind with :Qh :Jh
Two players limp and the button who seems like a solid player raises to $22

I call and the other player calls.

Flop ($66): :Qs :Td :2h

I check, HJ checks, and the button bets $40.

I call and the other player folds.

Turn ($146): :Qs :Td :2h :Jc

I check. Villain bets $65. I make it $195 and Villain calls.

River ($536): :Qs :Td :2h :Jc :4c

I have $675 left. How should I size my river bet? I wasn’t sure to bet small to induce..check call to pick up any bluffs...or bet for value vs. AQ and overpairs.

Comments

  • rickmfrickmf Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
    Also curious about this one.
    Did villian snap call the turn raise?
    Two pair on this board seems like it would be best most of the time. Would think his button squeeze range is pretty wide, but curious what kind of worse hole cards he might call you down with.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 422 ✭✭✭
    First Q: why not 3 bet here with QJs if you believe button to be opening pretty wide trying to steal? I probably am going to 3 bet this. Interested to hear if others would as well. I think we wanna play this uncapped OOP and we can fold to a 4 bet if button wants to get serious.

    I would agree that button's raise pre if going to be pretty wide here if he is a thinking player, however, he fires two streets and then calls your turn x/r.

    So V does not have air here. What hands would V be raising pre, and then firing two barrels at, calling a fair-sized check raise, that you now beat here? That's the question.

    Personally, I think we can eliminate things like non-top pair holdings, so AT, Tx, etc are out for me. Maybe V is doing this with AQ. KQ seems more likely to me given that V has top pair pretty good kicker (and may expect you to have 3 bet AQ) AND an OESD going to the river. However, I certainly see people refuse to lay down top-top all the time. Think we can also assume AA and KK are in his range too.

    But V also has QQ, JJ, TT, 22 all in his range, of course we block out combos of QQ and JJ to just a single combo of each remaining so that's nice. 3 combos of TT remain, 3 combos of 22 remain. V may have raised QT on the button as well, which we beat. However, V could certainly have 89 or AK here which is the nuts on the turn (and will remain the nuts unless board pairs so conceivable V flats and lets you get stacks in on river).

    So the range I have here that seems reasonable based on the action is 22, TT+, AK, QJ+, QT, KJ, 98. And I think the KJ holdings are much less likely based on the action. Open to comments here, maybe I'm seeing too many good hands here but at low stakes you don't see people calling big bets without too many great hands.

    So on the river, looking at the range above, I have us winning 48.9%, losing 46.5% and chopping the rest of the time.

    So this brings me to my real question: how do you know you're betting for value here? Value implies a worse hand is going to call and while V certainly has some worst hands in his range, you only have a little more than a pot sized bet left, so I don't think there's much of a chance you're folding out anything you don't beat.

    Seems like an awkward bet sizing on the river to bet like 2/3 with almost nothing left behind so I'm probably just going to shove here. But I'm not sure what we're getting value from unless we really think on the turn when straights get there, V is going to call a x/r with top pair or something. Interested to hear what others think.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 284 ✭✭✭
    This feels amazingly like a mirror image of this hand.

    https://forum.redchippoker.com/discussion/11846/i-think-i-shouldve-folded-here

    I think it would be a good spot to bet something like 220, targeting KK, AA, KQ, JT, QT, and planning to fold to a raise.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,979 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Good identification, Roblivion. In both hands, players involved are not playing r v r very well at all. And here, we have a player falsely poling himself into the top end RA of the opener.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 162 ✭✭
    If I were in your shoes I would've just flatted the turn, too many legitimate holdings crush you with that jack. Its not gappers making straights here, the flop bet may have been a semi-bluff or V may have flopped a set. But I know plenty players that'll bet that flop with two overcards and a gutshot all day.

    Still it depends what Button is raising with preflop but if his PFR is polarized then I'd prefer to get to showdown as cheap as possible and either take down a pot or take notes or both.

    Depoled, well then im 3betting PF and going from there.

    Either way thats a pretty big pot for 2pair, not sure I'd particularly enjoy being in a situation like that even if I won the pot.
  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    First Q: why not 3 bet here with QJs if you believe button to be opening pretty wide trying to steal? I probably am going to 3 bet this. Interested to hear if others would as well. I think we wanna play this uncapped OOP and we can fold to a 4 bet if button wants to get serious.


    Generally, QJs i feel plays well multi way..plus I don't usually try to squeeze out guys that i don't think play very well.

    He called it quickly pretty quickly.

    The river went Ck Ck and I scooped the pot...I just felt the stack sizes were a bit awkward at the end. I figured id call a moderate bet on the river and fold to a bigger bet vs. AK.
  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    blindraise wrote: »
    If I were in your shoes I would've just flatted the turn, too many legitimate holdings crush you with that jack. Its not gappers making straights here, the flop bet may have been a semi-bluff or V may have flopped a set. But I know plenty players that'll bet that flop with two overcards and a gutshot all day.

    Still it depends what Button is raising with preflop but if his PFR is polarized then I'd prefer to get to showdown as cheap as possible and either take down a pot or take notes or both.

    Depoled, well then im 3betting PF and going from there.

    Either way thats a pretty big pot for 2pair, not sure I'd particularly enjoy being in a situation like that even if I won the pot.

    I feel like flatting the turn is bad because there are so many cards that come and kill the action. Any K, A, 9, T likely crushes me.

    Do most people 3bet this spot? I like keeping the weak players in the hand with their limp calling range.....had they called between, I'd probably 3-bet for sure.

  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 162 ✭✭
    Michael E wrote: »

    I feel like flatting the turn is bad because there are so many cards that come and kill the action. Any K, A, 9, T likely crushes me.

    Do most people 3bet this spot? I like keeping the weak players in the hand with their limp calling range.....had they called between, I'd probably 3-bet for sure.

    True but only better hands are calling you on the turn raise, so if you get called youre left on the river with a bloated pot OOP on a wet board.

    And I think QJ is a hand that plays best heads up, so yeah im 3 betting most players even if im OOP. Button laid a pretty large bet PF, so if you 3bet to say $50 and he calls you know he's likely holding TT+/ATs+/AQo+(considering hes solid, if hes loose maybe throw KTs+ in his range as well)

    Unless hes just super spewy once the flop comes you can bet something like $60 into the $100 pot and if he calls hes either slowplaying a set, chasing a draw or trying to get value out of TPTK. If he raises chances are he has a set and you can likely fold. If you make it to the turn you can check and see if he checks back (confirming the draw) or bets. If he bets with TPTK guess what you now have him crushed and if he bets big it means hes scared of the straight draw with his set.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭
    I am not raising the turn here, You either way ahead or way behind, best to just call and realize your equity, If he reraised jams you then where are you?
    Check check on river was good
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 311 ✭✭✭
    Good points made by all on pre and post play.

    To the original question about river sizing. If you feel V is solid, then unlikely you get value from 1 pair. Leaves you crushed when your river bet is called.
  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    Paul_K wrote: »
    Good points made by all on pre and post play.

    To the original question about river sizing. If you feel V is solid, then unlikely you get value from 1 pair. Leaves you crushed when your river bet is called.

    So our bluff range is 0%?
    There are specific hands we want to target. KK, KJ, KQ, JT, QT.

  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 55 ✭✭
    edited January 15
    I don't like the flat preflop. You said the reg is solid and the reg is on the BTN, so I'd expect a cbet and maybe some barreling. Which means it'd be hard to realize your equity when you flop poorly. By flatting you're basically trying to hit the board, and that doesn't seem like a winning strategy, especially when you're out of position.

    A 3bet preflop could be nice if you think BTN is the type to be making a steal raise here. But if BTN is a passive limper, the BTN open would imply strength, and you don't want to 3bet a strong opponent. I think I'd lean towards a 3bet here, but would try not to get too crazy 3betting too wide with stuff like 86s.

    Flop call is standard, I think. A raise wouldn't accomplish anything: Villain would fold their bluffs and call with their strength. And folding would be way too tight: Villain is probably cbetting lots of stuff, eg. 76s and A5s.

    Interesting turn spot. I wonder what Villain is betting here. I wouldn't think they'd be bluffing on this board, because it's hard to get folds from you. And with something like KK or AQ, idk, I could see people looking to check-call with those on a scary board, especially at live $1-3. They would probably be betting QT and JT, so there is value to be had there. But you lose to sets and straights. Without taking the time to count combos or use software, I'm having trouble coming up with enough things that you can get value from by raising, so I might prefer a call.

    I feel similarly about the river. I'm not sure whether you are ahead more than 50% of the time after the turn action. But if you are going for value, I'd look to bet an amount that you think AQ or KK would call. Maybe 2/3 pot. If you go full pot or a shove, I could see KK possibly making a snug fold. Idk though, fish don't like to fold overpairs. I don't like the check-call line though because I just don't think Villain is capable of making such a bluff.
  • Warrington_1Warrington_1 Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    I would not have raised. I think your error was not just calling all the way to river. He is showing sets and 2 possible straights. Being on the button even the lower straight is very possible when he had 2 limpers in front of him. You put yourself in a weird place here because if he shoves on you its going to be based on gut. Its very possible villain started with AK of spades. Put yourself in his position with that flop and that holding. His betting doesn't seem entirely our of line. Where you ended up you may jest have to check and see what the villain does and decide to shove or fold

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