Live 1/2 Facing Overs ?

Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
$300 Effective

Villain was older lady who I felt was leading alot of flops light (Playing the Old Lady card as I call it)

I have :Ts :Tc in Middle Position. Think i was the LJ.

I make it $14 everyone folds to Villain in BB who calls.

Flop comes :Kh :7c :7d

Villian Leads for $25 and I call.

Turn :As She checks and I check.

River: :Jc She leads $40.

I call and scoop the pot. ( I don't force people to show their hands, she said good hand and I showed my TT)

Table is shocked I'd call so maybe I'm playing this wrong?
Thoughts?

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,140 -
    Maybe the table is shocked that someone they mis-profiled as Old Lady Coffee would bluff the end?
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 317 ✭✭✭
    edited January 12
    Michael E wrote: »
    Villain was older lady who I felt was leading alot of flops light (Playing the Old Lady card as I call it)

    I'm thinking this turn is a dream card for us when she checks. I wouldn't be calling this flop with no plan to take it away at the first sniff of weakness.

  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Maybe the table is shocked that someone they mis-profiled as Old Lady Coffee would bluff the end?

    That's true..IDK why I didn't think of that.
    I usually pick up on those things right away when others always assume she has it.

    Self obvious I'm just player profiling by more than age and gender...
  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 138 ✭✭
    Just spitballing here.....
    If we think villain leads light can we raise her flop bets with ATC? Our holding seems less important with this read. So maybe we should be attacking her BB with a wide range until the table picks up on our plan?
    Why are we checking back the A turn and then calling on another overcard on the river? The turn check just seems odd to me.
    Can villain take this line with Ax,7x, Kx, J8+?
    Villain doesnt show so what sort of range are we inferring from her play?
  • Michael EMichael E Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    CASEY M wrote: »
    Just spitballing here.....
    If we think villain leads light can we raise her flop bets with ATC? Our holding seems less important with this read. So maybe we should be attacking her BB with a wide range until the table picks up on our plan?
    Why are we checking back the A turn and then calling on another overcard on the river? The turn check just seems odd to me.
    Can villain take this line with Ax,7x, Kx, J8+?
    Villain doesnt show so what sort of range are we inferring from her play?

    I don't raise people with wide range here because she will fold the bottom part and call with the top part. I want her to keep betting the bottom part of her range when I am near the top of mine.

    Let bluffers bluff is my play.
  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 138 ✭✭
    I agree, Im just wondering what sort of range we think shes flatting the BB with and if we can exploit it with ATC
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    Bet the turn. I'm surprised your 10's were good here. When she checks the turn, I think it's time to spring into action. I'd have wrong profiled here on KQ
  • JoeOffsuitJoeOffsuit Red Chipper Posts: 398 ✭✭✭
    I might go against the community here and say that even if you hadn't posted the result, I really don't hate your line as played.

    I think we all agree that while TT is to weak to bet for value on the turn, I also think its too strong to bluff. We can't expect to get an A or 7 to fold, and it may take another bet on the river to get a K, QQ, or JJ to fold (which could be expensive if they have an A or 7), and just about everything else we get to fold we are already beating. The only argument I can see for betting is if we are too timid to take a stand on the river, so by betting the turn we hope to take the pot period. But you showed we can take a stand on the river. Sure, villain will show up with a better hand at showdown some percentage of the time, but I think checking back the turn with a plan to call on the river is fine overall, and makes us more money when it induces a bluff.
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 317 ✭✭✭
    I'm wondering of we are equating "leading flops light" with "bluffing". I see a disparity.

    I don't see many scenarios where she donks with Ax/7x and then doesn't follow up on the turn. So I like the flop call, essentially floating as the PFA. But aren't we calling to exploit her action on turn? Fold when she continues. Bet/fold to a c/r?

    I don't see how showing down 4th pair will ever be profitable. Don't we have to feel that a large % of her river "bluffs" are Kx/Jx/QQ?
  • JoeOffsuitJoeOffsuit Red Chipper Posts: 398 ✭✭✭
    If this villain were truly balanced making this $40 river bet, she would be bluffing 40/(40+78) = 34% of the time, and then we would be completely indifferent between calling and folding. However, no one at these stakes are truly balanced, so the villain only needs to be bluffing more then 34% of the time to be "overbluffing" which would make this a mandatory call on the river.

    But if we think the villain has less than 34% bluffs on this river, then the river play becomes a fold. I agree its not easy to determine what the villains river betting range is. If we assume that the villain would bet any A, K, or 7 on the turn, and then check on the river everything else that beats us, than the villains story on the river very suspect. I tend to think the villain would be hoping to check down a Kx, Jx or QQ on the river.

    Backing up to the turn after we floated the flop, betting to get a stronger hand to fold, to get a weaker hand to call, or to deny a drawing hand equity are all great reasons to bet. Would our turn bet accomplish any of these? Betting to get a weaker hand to fold only gives us card protection (sure, some people value this differently than others.) But then what is our plan if we get called or check-raised? I tend to think TT is a little strong to be bet-folding. But with a weaker hand I would be much happier to fire this turn.
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 317 ✭✭✭
    edited January 15
    Good analysis Joe, as always. My sticking point is this villain type. We have to believe she's leading the flop with air or a lower pair? It would be really hard to convince me of that in the moment. This is a terrible board for a donk lead bluff and it seems you'd likely be hard pressed to find many players, regardless of skill level, that would lead this board for either bluff or value (well, guess we did find one).

    Regarding the turn... I am certain that a good percentage of low limit players are in constant fear of the A when they don't have one, then over-value them when they do.

    Maybe I'm too damn nitty? Had I been there, I guess you could just add me to the list of bewildered witnesses.

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