Call shove with a flush draw.

TooncesTDCTooncesTDC Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
Day 2 of a 2 day $500 buy-in tournament. We are down to 45 people from 480. This tournament pays 15%, and the payout structure is quite flat until the final table. This felt to me like a spot where I'm trying to accumulate chips, and ICM isn't too applicable. For the sake of argument, feel free to give me a cash game feel for this call, as well as a tournament opinion.

I have 94K chips. The average stack is 160k. Blinds are 2000-4000 with a 4000 BB Ante. I am UTG 9 handed and raise to 9K with :Ts :9s . I plan to fold this to a 3-bet, and while it's a bit aggressive here, I think with smaller typical raises here, I can safely add this to my range as an occasional outlier hand, and I have been playing pretty tight. Probably not going much lower here. UTG+3 calls. BB calls. Both have about 1.75x more chips than me.

33000 pot. Flop is :Ks :7s :5c . BB Checks. I bet 18000 of my remaining 85k. UTG+3 folds. BB goes all-in.

I go into the tank for a while. 69000 is in the pot and I need to call another 76000. That requires about 34% equity. If my flush outs are good, that's 9 outs for 36%. My backdoor straights are worth maybe 2% more? IF she shoved on a 7, a 5, 88 or just high cards, then I have 1 pair outs as well. If she is shoving on a bare flush draw as well, then I only have the 1 pair outs unless her high spade is less than a 9, in which case I am ahead.

I calculated about 36% and called.

First, I want opinions if the river call is good, bad, or horrible. I certainly got plenty of looks when I flipped it.

Second, obviously, I wanted to be the one to shove this hand so that I had fold equity. Given that, should I do something different with my action or bet sizing? Do I plan to shove the turn on most turn cards if called on the flop?

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Comments

  • KingKKuntaKingKKunta Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
    I am not a tournament player but I will try to give my opinion purely based on the situation and the range of the BB.
    It looks like you are ahead on this flop when raising UTG with 21BB and then cbetting >1/2 pot 3ways, you definitely have a lot of K in your range like AK, KQ, KJs, also AA KK and some good flush draws like AJs, ATs. Because of this I think that it is unlikely he check-shoves on you with 88 or a 7 but it depends on the opponent also I guess, maybe you have a read.

    Then he check-calls most of his weak FD and straight draws, so I would expect him to shove only combo draws, sets, 2 pairs and strong flush draws - maybe also some FD with backdoor SD like QsJs or Js8s.

    So considering a range of AsXs(except AQ which he 3bets), K7s, K5s, 55, 77 and all the spades combos: JQ, J8, 86, 65, 64, 45 and 43 you get around 33.18% which is not enough. It is hard for him to have worse FD as you block T and 9 of spades and 7 is on the board and all the better FD with Q or J lower your percentage.

    If you are able to add 8s5s to his line and 5s3s then you get to 34.42% and barely a call. But if you think he shoves 88 and A7 you get to almost 39%.
    Without info on BB this looks like a fold cause you block too much worse hands but if you have a read that he shoves A7 here then it's a call.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 256 ✭✭✭
    I'm no tourney pro myself, but here are my thoughts.

    May seem a bit tight, but at this depth and in this position it seems like this hand should be a fold, unless your table is playing pretty tight and folding too much preflop. If you get called, you're going to be playing a guessing game most likely out of position, and using a large portion of your stack to do the guessing.

    Once you get to the flop, I agree that you want to try to maximize your fold equity, but I do not think betting is the way to do that. I would check, and either take a free card or consider jamming over a bet. If it's checked to you on the turn as well, you can pretty safely bet and take it down.

    As played, you have about 17 BB left (don't you have 67K left?). So, this is not an absolutely mandatory spot to get it in, though you do need to consider that you'll be putting in two BB next hand, so not a great spot to be in. Unless the blind levels are pretty quick, I would probably just let it go and look for a better spot.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,637 -
    edited January 22
    Mostly agree with Rob. At 21bb I'm much more looking for spots to 3b-shove light than to open light. UTG this is a tough ask. That said, I like the preflop sizing and if the table has nitted up cos of being ITM it might be justifiable.

    In real time your equity calculation is decent, but off table it would be interesting to really do a full analysis of V's range and see how you shape up. My guess is it could be a quite a bit worse than your estimate.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,773 ✭✭✭✭✭
    it's very simple. This is one of your worst hands and worst flush draws. You do not have to go broke with all of them. The 10 high performs well as a b/f. You have others to b/c and x/r and x/c. If a poker player finds himself felting all draws, he is doing something wrong.

    So if this is a b/f the question is what is the most efficient sizing, one that has the quality of not inducing a leveraging bet and still working with the rest of the betting range. Clearly a little smaller is better. If there is no sizing that won't induce a leveraging bet then your b/f category shrinks substantially, and rewinding to preflop will reveal an error.
  • MattPMattP Red Chipper Posts: 98 ✭✭
    (* Don't play many tournaments, but still, here's my $.02)

    In a cash game, this is a call. In a tournament, I don't think so. If you gamble and lose at a cash game, you rebuy and go again. But you're near the finish of a big tournament, and there's no reward for long-term EV here.

    I'm probably over-simplifying here, but you seem to be at best a coin flip here if you call. If I'm late in a tournament, I'd rather be the one shoving in this spot and combining my odds of making the big hand with some fold equity.

    You've got a fair amount of chips left and plenty of time left before blinds force you to really get aggressive. I'd cringe, fold, and get ready for a better spot.
  • TooncesTDCTooncesTDC Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    edited January 23
    Thanks, everyone for the responses. As for the equity, I had gotten to 36% on equilab, but only if I included hands like 88 and A7 which are really questionable if they would shove (instead of x/c). In real time, my big mistake was only thinking about the hands that were pairs or better (where my flush outs were good) without considering all the hands that she was bluffing with that had me beat. Her actual hand was Q6 of spades and Q hi won the giant pot to everyone's amusement.

    [quote="persuadeo;c-90143"
    So if this is a b/f the question is what is the most efficient sizing, one that has the quality of not inducing a leveraging bet and still working with the rest of the betting range. Clearly a little smaller is better. If there is no sizing that won't induce a leveraging bet then your b/f category shrinks substantially, and rewinding to preflop will reveal an error.[/quote]

    Persuadei, can you define what you mean about "not inducing a leveraging bet"? I think what you are saying is that if you don't want to put your opponent in a good spot to put in a shove that I could fold. If I'm right about that, what is the pot ratio that I am trying to avoid in this bet so she doesn't want to push all in?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,773 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You roughly introduce leverage when the spr (or rsp, for purists) reaches 1. When you lay a price that is less, it is harder for you to be shut out of the pot as her jam is less frequent and less profitable. Your 10 high draw specifically wants to see another card, doesnt want to felt as it can pair or hit backdoors, but doesnt want to xc as it has no sdv. So logically the leanest price going forward greatly benefits this hand.

    To grasp this another way, think abstractly of cbet strategy. When we lay a polarizing price, all our folds now cost more, so the counter is naturally more raises. When we lay a smaller price, the profitablity of xr as a counter goes down, as less dead money goes into the pot. So the smaller price induces the least amount of leverage, down to a bet of zero, which may be correct here if there is no size that will prevent her from shoving.

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