220kr ($24) level 1, 3bet pot vs reg

OrigamiHeroOrigamiHero Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
Blinds 10/20 no ante.

LJ (fish, stack 3000) raises to 55,
Hero, BTN (2940) calls with JTdd.
SB (reg, stack 2740) 3bets to 280. Folds to LJ who folds, hero calls.

Flop Qc8d5s. Pot is 635, Villain bets 211, hero calls.

Turn Kd. Pot is 1057, Villain (2249) bets 957. Hero (2449) folds.

I don't see how villain has any bluffs in this spot, giving her a very nutted range of QQ+, AK+ at the very least. Her hand strength doesn't really matter as we have roughly 30% equity against all holdings of Qx or better, and she's very much committed at this point. I don't see villain ever folding to a shove, and needing ~47% equity to just call makes it seem to me that the only viable option is to fold.

I was considering 3betting preflop to isolate, and possibly folding to a 4bet depending on size.

Is floating flop too marginal? I gave SB a range of JJ+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo, which we have ~27% equity against, needing 25% to break even. I was considering implied odds given how deep we we're. Still, should we try to avoid these break even spots against strong regs?
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Answers

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,637 -
    I think if you float the flop, get the best card other than a 9 on the turn, and can't call a bet, then you have to question the flop float. That said, the issue here is that massive upsize she goes for on the turn. Pretty hard to predict that.
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