Top Two Facing Turn Shove

Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 391 ✭✭✭
Hey RCP, hoping everyone a great weekend and a productive one if you were on the felt. I wanted to get some feedback on a hand I played this Sunday afternoon at MGM National Harbor playing $1/$3. (Sorry in advance for longer post, I wanted to include more of my thought process for this hand.)

Hero ($512) is dealt :JH: :TH: in the SB.

UTG ($220) elects to straddle and UTG+1, +2, CO and BTN ($501) all call. Hero elects to raise to $40 with an inkling this could take the pot down right here. I have been playing with everyone but UTG for a minimum of 3 hours and all are fairly passive and try to see flops cheap. Button would be the one exception, but he leveraged his position fairly often and especially in limped or straddle pots so it was curious he did not raise.

Regardless, UTG calls and Button elects to call as well. UTG seems to be a fit or folder. He has not raised a single time in the hour he has been at the table and has tabled AKs at showdown in a limped pot. So I'm keeping all premium hands in his range with the note that it's also fairly wide, probably any suited combos with a face card.

Flop ($141): :Js: :Td: :4s:

With top two pair and a board that has a ton of draws that either player would have limped, Hero elects to bet $80, which now seems a tad small, but I do not want either of these players to fold a weak Jack here or a T. However, I think I probably should have sized up here. I also had the thought that if UTG shoved and BTN called, I would be able to come back over the top since I am ahead of Button unless he holds one of the combos of 44 (I am confident he would raise TT and JJ and obviously we are left w/ just a single combo of each).

In any event, UTG folds and BTN tank-calls. BTN I would classify as a player thinking about being a thinking player. He's not getting too out of line post flop, but is playing a bit too wide to be a solid player, there are too many marginal hands in his range that I have seen. He is all too happy to table his bluffs, as well. And because he's been doing this, I have seen that he has x/r a few flops with the nut flush draw or an OESD, or combos of a pair and a gutshot, etc. He's playing fairly aggressive with his draws.

Turn ($301): :Ks:

This is not the greatest card for Hero, but it does not complete as many draws as it appears based upon what I know about V. On the button, V is going to raise AQ. If he's raising AJo in the CO, he's raising AQ on the button. So the nut straight is out.

However, he would play probably any suited ace in this situation, although I would expect him to raise ATs+ at the minimum. Additionally, based on his play, I think there's a fairly good chance he would have raised this pot on the flop if he was on the nut draw.

Hero elects to check. I got caught here thinking about what worse hands were going to call me when I bet here. I think the K brings not only the flush and straights for Q9, but it also gives him some better 2 pairs. I was thinking back to work I have been doing in flopzilla and I think this card is better for V's range. Feedback appreciated here on the check and thought process behind it.

Villain ends up jamming for $381 and my first thought is that this is extremely polarizing. V had not overbet the pot in session even when it was reasonable to do so (he prior bet $150 into $180 with only $200 in his stack).

So this is a fairly big bet for V. Hero probably also looks super nitty. I was folding a ton to aggression post flop for the past three hours. It wouldn't be wrong to say that I looked like a fit or folder and I was visibly frustrated for a while. So basically, there's no expectation for V that Hero is going to pay him off if he has a value hand. There are a ton of stations at the table who would, but I have done almost nothing but fold post flop for most of the afternoon.

So when V makes this bet, I tend to think this is a semi-bluff (V had not shown up with any wild bluffs, there was always a strong draw or a pair/draw combo of some sorts).

So is it reasonable here to consider a call? I think this line looks something like KQo with the :Qs: or maybe :AS: Jx holdings.

I'm positive his range has things like KJ, KT but I don't see him jamming these here without some type of draw. Obviously I need to win this hand much more often than I lose it to justify a call but based on the straddle call/flat/jam, I am inclined to think V is semi-bluffing here and I am ahead for the moment.

However, I would appreciate any and all feedback about my thought process here.

Comments

  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 818 ✭✭✭✭
    edited January 28
    @Jordan Power i think this spot could be overall close and its gonna come down to how far villain takes his Tx, Jx and some other Ax hands that he will originally call with on the flop amd turns them into shoves on the turn, you will know this based on his frequency/ actions on how volatile he is.

    Reason for this is when looking at a true polarized range he is showing up with i could see around 40 combos that beat you and about 20 u could beat so ure winning close to 33% meanwhile he is giving just a tid bit worse than 2-1. So if were able to find some extra hands villain (based on tendencies) might shove with, we have now find our extra hands thus u could call.

    I want to point out that pre flop ure thinking of just solely taking it down is a tactic and will eventually do u harm at it has no rhyme and reason to a whole strategy, further u create a poor spr post (for the times ure called) with ure hand that largely needs a deeper spr for post play. All this has a bad domino effect

    Second, the reasons u mentioned for betting this flop is not great and will ultimately lead into trouble spots given run outs especially when deeper with range. Plan for the future with more precision.
    COACHING NOW AVAILABLE HERE
  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 217 ✭✭✭
    edited January 28
    First of all, I am OK with the PF decision to raise, although I would note that if UTG is really limping premium hands, this might be close to neutral EV. If you raise, I would make it bigger. Five limpers for $6 each, I'd make this like $50 OOP.

    Flop cbet size is completely fine, I would not go larger than 60% pot.
    Turn Ks is not better for villain's range. It is much better for your range, bringing in straights, sets, two pair, and more nut flushes for you than for him.

    This is a gross spot, especially because JT is a good hand, but by no means your strongest. I really like the decision to check this turn.
    If you think the villain is balanced with his bluffs and his value hands (having about 2 value hands for every bluff), this is hands-down a call when you discount nut straights from his hand. But it's hard to know if he has enough bluffs here, since low stakes players historically underbluff on rivers. If I were you, I would ask myself what kinds of hands I can possibly have here. Would you check AQ here? Do you have any flushes that you would check here? If you actually do, then you could just call with flushes, straights, sets, AsAx, and maybe KJs (which you should also have here), and get away from JT. But if JT is the strongest hand you have here and you think this guy actually has a decent number of bluffs, you are going to have to call it off.

    V is basically saying flush or nothing here. He shouldn't be doing this with anything else. If he has AsX, he only has like 16% equity, since Ts is no good. To figure out if he is bluffing enough, you are going to just have to count combos and make some assumptions about his range.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 391 ✭✭✭
    @Jordan Power

    Reason for this is when looking at a true polarized range he is showing up with i could see around 40 combos that beat you and about 20 u could beat so ure winning close to 33% meanwhile he is giving just a tid bit worse than 2-1. So if were able to find some extra hands villain (based on tendencies) might shove with, we have now find our extra hands thus u could call.

    Thanks for the feedback, Fausto. While I did not get this far at the table, in post-session study I found 46 combos V could be doing this with.

    I wasn't just trying to take it down pre as my sole strategy; I just was trying to indicate that the table had been fairly passive.

    On the flop bet, do you mean my flaw is with the sizing or betting at all? If the latter, I will have to think on why based on your comment as right this second, I don't have a thought as to why c-betting a board like this with top two with a ton of draws out there would be a bad idea. If you just meant with the sizing, I have more of an idea what you mean.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 391 ✭✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    V is basically saying flush or nothing here. He shouldn't be doing this with anything else. If he has AsX, he only has like 16% equity, since Ts is no good. To figure out if he is bluffing enough, you are going to just have to count combos and make some assumptions about his range.

    I don't see this V ever showing up with absolutely nothing here, but I do agree he's trying to rep the flush. I just don't think V would have taken this action based upon how nitty I appeared if he already had the flush.

    I do actually think he was closer to a balanced value:bluff range than most players I see. He had tabled a few bluffs during session, more value hands. Couldn't say for sure if V had 2:1 ratio but I think he was definitely closer than most players. He certainly was willing to bluff.

    I have a few better hands than JT here but not that many. I need to think about this in more detail. I probably would check AQ. I don't think I have any flushes that I check here. I need to think about this more. Thanks for the response.

  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 818 ✭✭✭✭
    I meant the betting in general only because of ure reasons why
    COACHING NOW AVAILABLE HERE
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 297 ✭✭✭
    With top two pair and a board that has a ton of draws that either player would have limped, Hero elects to bet $80

    Hey Jordan... nice post.

    This sounds a little nit-picky, but just make sure you differentiate between a limp range and a limp/call range.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 391 ✭✭✭
    I meant the betting in general only because of ure reasons why

    Ah I see, okay thanks for the clarification. I'll unpack that a bit.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 391 ✭✭✭
    Paul_K wrote: »
    With top two pair and a board that has a ton of draws that either player would have limped, Hero elects to bet $80

    Hey Jordan... nice post.

    This sounds a little nit-picky, but just make sure you differentiate between a limp range and a limp/call range.

    Absolutely; I don't see that as nitpicky. Thanks!
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,583 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 30
    Turn ($301): :Ks:

    This is not the greatest card for Hero, but it does not complete as many draws as it appears

    Or, maybe more - I'd consider a hand like KJ to be on a draw against your hand.

    Preflop this is just a call for me.
    - the straddle changes a deep-ish stack game into a short-ish stack game which is not what you want with this hand.
    - you're bloating the pot while out of position.
    - this particular hand greatly benefits from being in position due to the types of hands it tends to make. (You are more likely to play a flopped set than a draw to one, while you're more likely to flop a flush draw or straight draw than a made flush or straight. Flopping a pair of jacks or tens is not why we look forward to playing JTs, as opposed to, say, AK.)
  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 217 ✭✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    V is basically saying flush or nothing here. He shouldn't be doing this with anything else. If he has AsX, he only has like 16% equity, since Ts is no good. To figure out if he is bluffing enough, you are going to just have to count combos and make some assumptions about his range.

    I don't see this V ever showing up with absolutely nothing here, but I do agree he's trying to rep the flush. I just don't think V would have taken this action based upon how nitty I appeared if he already had the flush.

    I do actually think he was closer to a balanced value:bluff range than most players I see. He had tabled a few bluffs during session, more value hands. Couldn't say for sure if V had 2:1 ratio but I think he was definitely closer than most players. He certainly was willing to bluff.

    I have a few better hands than JT here but not that many. I need to think about this in more detail. I probably would check AQ. I don't think I have any flushes that I check here. I need to think about this more. Thanks for the response.

    Yeah, when I say "nothing", I mean AsX hands, which have like 15% equity against your calling range.

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