Correct Flop Shove?...And What Could Villain Have Here?

DemetriosDemetrios Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
Hey gang, first substantive post here, feedback appreciated:

$1/3 NLH at MGM National Harbor. $200 Effective Stacks. This happened on the 4th hand I was dealt at the table, so at that point I had nothing but very general reads. I am in MP with my initial $200 buy-in, sandwiched between two very LAGgy early 20s Asian guys. LAG to my left seems to be a decent player, and has ~$750. Main V is on the button with ~$225, has an Eastern Euro accent, has been very talkative and is drinking Corona. (Note, I normally buy into this game for $400, but forgot my bankroll at home so decided to buy in short this evening.)

I open to $18 from MP with :8h :8d and get called from the LAG to my left and main V on button. (Note: I will sometimes limp with 8s here, but I did not want to limp into my first pot of the evening). Pot is $58

Flop comes :8c :6c :Qh .

In the past I normally would make a large bet here, pot or 3/4 pot. But I'm trying to get better at maximizing value from these spots. I make it $20 to go, with the intention of calling a raise from LAG to my left (who could easily have 2 clubs in his range) if he pops it, and putting in a 2/3 pot or so bet on the turn. He just calls. Main V on the button now raises to $80. Hmmm...

Normally I would just shove here without thinking twice, but I took my time to think this through. Here's what I came up with:

I have middle set and am crushing both players' ranges. If I was deeper here I may have given more consideration to just calling, but given my stack size and with LAG still to act I think this weights the decision towards shove. If I were to just call, the pot would be $238 and our LAG would only need to put 60 more into the pot to draw at clubs with two cards to come, a very nice price. And given what I believe to be main V's range, all the money is getting in on the turn regardless.

Thinking about main V's range, I don't think there are many players capable of popping it to $80 with air here at $1/3. This screams like some kind of made hand that doesn't want to see another card. I don't think V takes this line with QQ from the button because he would have 3-bet me out of the pot preflop. Maybe he would semi-bluff like this with 2 clubs if he thought I was making a standard c-bet after raising out of position. IMO, the most likely scenario is our V got a case of Fancy Play Syndrome with AA, maybe KK.

I decide to shove and worst-case-scenario play at least a double-up pot getting by far the best of it. LAG folds and main V insta-calls, then looks stricken when I turn over my 88s.

So, two questions: What do folks think of the flop shove here? And what could V possibly have?

Actually, three questions. Hypothetically, let's say we have a stack closer to the $750 of LAG to our left. Would that change our thinking on the flop in the face of Main V's raise to $80? Perhaps to call with the intention of bombing any non-club turn, and forcing LAG into a very difficult spot in a large pot?

Thanks!

Comments

  • Brian BBrian B Red Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
    As played, I think the flop shove makes the most sense. Calling his raise commits you to the pot, It's not like you would fold to any turn card with $100 behind after you call the raise on the flop. The good think about shoving is he might feel committed with some of his worse holdings that are just getting crushed like AQo and KQo. As far as his range, i would think something like 66,AQo,KQo,AQs,KQs,QJs-Q8s,T9s,97s,86s,75s,AcJc,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac7c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,KcJc,KcTc,Kc9c,JcTc,Jc9c,5c4c,4c3c.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 432 ✭✭✭
    Yeah as played I think the shove is fine. However, I think you should size your c-bet way up. If you're playing against LAGs, I think betting smaller is what is going to make you lose out on value.

    I understand not wanting people to fold out hands you are beating, but I don't know too many players at MGM NH that are folding out QJ QK here to 2/3 or 3/4 pot bet on the flop. (And I know a ton that would NEVER fold without an overcard or a flush draw completing!)

    Also, I play at MGM NH 3-4 times a week, shoot me a message if you ever want to say high. I know a few other Red Chippers who play there.
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 210 ✭✭
    "In the past I normally would make a large bet here, pot or 3/4 pot. But I'm trying to get better at maximizing value from these spots. I make it $20 to go, with the intention of calling a raise from LAG to my left (who could easily have 2 clubs in his range) if he pops it, and putting in a 2/3 pot or so bet on the turn."

    Your plan should be to get all your chips in on the flop. The LAGs with draws will pay.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,683 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 30
    Flop shove here is a no brainer as you're playing short stack poker right from the get go. This makes your question of what villain has as pretty much moot. If he has QQ so be it, it will rarely be true. This is why deep stack poker takes more skill, as there isn't as much thinking that goes into 1 or 2 street poker. As you can tell by your hypothetical question.

    That is where player tendencies come into it. If he'll call a lot more now with 2 cards to come on a draw, then get more money in now. If raising is going to make him play his 86 correctly and fold, then don't. If you can trick him by waiting and check/raising the turn, that's an option but you have to be prepared for quite a few cards here not knowing what he has. Are you going to know where you stand when a J, T, 9, 7, 5, 4 or any club come? Granted a 7 is less likely to hurt you but a 6 or Q are not guaranteed to help you either if against Q8 or 66. So let's just say that's about 24-33 cards coming on the turn that will muddy the waters, depending on how you count them. This board is quite dynamic. The only thing we know for the moment is you have the nuts for all practical purposes against a LAG (although I suppose button might show up with QQ on some occasions.)

    Now you get a feel for why playing a 65 BB stack is so much easier than a 200+ BB stack.

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