Checkraising gutshot on the flop

EurocratEurocrat Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
Hi everyone,

For February I challenged myself to post more hands in the forums, so I figured I might as well start already. Here's a hand I played recently on NL5 on Pokerstars:

Table Information
Seat: 1 Player 1 ($9.21) Dealer
Seat: 2 Player 2 ($5.71) Small Blind
Seat: 4 Hero ($7.8) Big Blind
Seat: 5 Player 5 ($8.11)
Seat: 6 Player 6 ($0.81)
Dealt to Hero
KS.png TH.png

Preflop (Pot:0.07)
Player 5 FOLD
Player 6 FOLD
Player 1 RAISE $0.11
Player 2 FOLD
Hero CALL $0.06

Flop(Pot: $0.24)
9C.png 3S.png QS.png

Hero CHECK
Player 1 BET $0.15
Hero RAISE $0.5
Player 1 CALL $0.35

Turn(Pot: $1.24)
9C.png 3S.png QS.png JH.png

Hero BET $0.7
Player 1 CALL $0.7

River(Pot: $2.64)
9C.png 3S.png QS.png JH.png 9S.png

Hero BET $1.25
Player 1 CALL $1.25
Showdown:
Hero SHOWS
KS.png TH.png
Player 1 MUCKS
QD.png AS.png
Hero wins the pot: $5.14

Villain is fairly reg with 23/19 stats over 200 hands. I didn't have this information by the time I played, but he has a cbet stat of 36 over 11 hands. Couple of questions I have:
-Is the checkraise a good play here? Is the size reasonable?
-Should I barrel every turn? I was planning to except for a K.
-How do I play the River? I figured I could either check/call or bet/fold, which I went for. I think if V raises here I'm beat, but that there were still quite some hands that could call me down. Would this be a good spot to 3barrel-bluff if I miss my draw?
-How should I adapt my style to this particular V? With such a low cbet stat and his willingness to call down TPTK on such a board, should I reduce my bluff checkraise frequency in the future?

Thanks for any advice in advance.

Cheers
Eurocrat

Comments

  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 383 ✭✭✭
    I really like the checkraise yes.
    - OOP
    - Bad odds for your gutshot and overcard
    - You can rep strong hands (33, 99 and Q9)
    - It's OK to get 3-bet and fold
    - Outs to the nuts
    - BDFD

    Sizing is fine on the flop, though I would kick it up just a notch on the turn.
    River is a tricky card: it removes made hands from your range (99 and Q9) but your flush draws get there. However, I think villain has more flush draws than you (you shouldn't be inclined to check-raise As5s for example) so I think you can size up to target his flushes.
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
    my question to the group is after the flop x/r call, do you barrel the turn with a miss? I'd probably say yes to about .85-.90 maybe more, with this wet a board. We can rightly rep sets/2p. If we get called OTT I'm not sure if I'd check/give up or overbet the riv on this flush runout.... and GO
  • EurocratEurocrat Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
    Thanks guys. I'm currently working on my barreling game and indeed, firing a 2nd barrel with a gutshot OOP is a spot where I have to convince myself to do it - same applies for river barrels. @oblivius: Would you suggest overbetting in order to polarize our range on the river? I'm thinking that indeed a larger betsizing would have made V fold his TPTK in this instance, so I'm wondering. What do you people think is villains range on the R? Wouldn't he raise his sets and his straights on the T?

    @LeChiffre: Thanks for the feedback. Just some follow-up questions: If I wouldn't have the BDFD, should I be less inclined to X/R here? As for As5s, should I be less inclined because I do have some showdown value (I would probably 3bet A5s preflop in this scenario in the first place)? And as concerns the R, I didn't really get your point about sizing up to target their flushs - do you mean on the T?

    Thanks again everyone.
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 383 ✭✭✭
    edited January 30
    Eurocrat wrote: »
    @LeChiffre: Thanks for the feedback. Just some follow-up questions: If I wouldn't have the BDFD, should I be less inclined to X/R here? As for As5s, should I be less inclined because I do have some showdown value (I would probably 3bet A5s preflop in this scenario in the first place)? And as concerns the R, I didn't really get your point about sizing up to target their flushs - do you mean on the T?

    Cheers. Without BDFD it becomes less attractive to check-raise and I'd lean towards check-fold. After all, with a BDFD you have much more opportunity to either barrel again on the turn or call a bet and realise your full equity by getting to the river.

    Yes indeed, nut flush draws serve fine as a check-call on the flop. Couple reasons off the top of my head:
    - You protect your check-calling range by having draws to the nuts
    - Facing a 3-bet on the flop sucks: we're probably going to have to fold a lot of equity
    - You have SDV as you say so less incentive to turn into a bluff

    As a sidenote I would never 3-bet A5s BB vs a reg BU.

    Your sizing on the river targets Qx, but if you size up you can get more value from his flush draws (even though you will be called less often). You could work it out mathematically with an EV equation, which could absolutely prove me wrong. Just an idea to experiment with.
    - What is the EV if you bet 2/3 and get called by everything better than KQ in villain's range?
    - What is the EV if you bet full pot and get called by everything better than QJ.
    Just some examples but my gut says you left some money on the table.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,764 ✭✭✭✭✭
    1. you'd have to work to come up with enough value to allow yourself to check raise all gutters, having the BDFD helps you with equity and frequency control.
    2. If you did raise many of them, many would check the turn, or you'd be barrelling off dead with gutters and spades too often.
    3. the turn is where you missed value, not the river. Look at the run out. You are not likely XR QJ, so your value is 2 Q9s and 3-6 sets and some number of K10, in other words, very limited. Your bluffs are remain fairly substantial if they include A10 and other pair + 10 and spades, meaning you can support a large bet range very easily.
    4. Further, when you establish the large betting range on the turn he will have trouble controlling the size of the pot simply calling down, and this is where you may get to play for stacks.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,504 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 30
    After x/r flop, I don't barrel many turns - maybe spades, maybe a K (if you call that a "barrel"). The turn bet size doesn't make sense to me. What exactly are you representing? It's just not consistent with the flop aggression. If it's a bluff, it should be pretty big at this point, so that's the size that should expect to get called. You are hoping to represent that or maybe KQ. I think you might have fallen into the rut of "bluff big, value bet small" a bit, which is a pretty expensive way to play against observant opponents.
  • EurocratEurocrat Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
    Thanks everyone again for their input. I plugged some numbers in flopzilla and indeed,

    1) I do have quite a lot of better draws to X/R here, so barreling every gutshot would make my frequencies quite off.
    2) As for the betsizing on the turns, I fully see the point and it seems like I have some sort of mental game leak (I'm conscious that one of the reasons that tend to tilt me is not being called off when I have a strong made hand...). After calling my X/R on the F, V has a pretty strong range on the T and a lot of hands that call of a bigger bet size. Thanks for pointing that out.
    3) As for X/F the T when I miss, I'm kind of conflicted because I do agree that I have a number of other bluffs here that I don't need to barrel my missed gutshot, but perhaps irrationaly I always cringe a bit when I X/R flop and then X/F turn. More analytical, should I be checking some made hands here than to re-balance that?

    @LeChiffre: I will have a look at my 3bet game as well then. :-)


  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,778 ✭✭✭✭
    If you want to dig deeper, you could also look around the opportunity to preflop 3bet.
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 383 ✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    If you want to dig deeper, you could also look around the opportunity to preflop 3bet.

    Don't see a reason to 3-bet pre. Not strong enough to 3-bet for value but definitely strong enough to call.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,778 ✭✭✭✭
    edited January 31
    LeChiffre wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    If you want to dig deeper, you could also look around the opportunity to preflop 3bet.

    Don't see a reason to 3-bet pre. Not strong enough to 3-bet for value but definitely strong enough to call.

    Well I can see a 3bet with KTo, esp. if V (BU) is position aware and attacking the blinds loosely or somehow loosely. By raising, we can either take the pot down preflop or go on the flop with initiative and range advantage (and with still ok equity/SDV).

    And KTo is still rather a marginal hand, esp. OOP. So I'm not that happy to call with as it will be hard to realize our equity - except with a strong postflop edge / read.. (Thus I'd be more about calling KTs and raising KTo.)
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,504 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    go on the flop with initiative and range advantage (and with still ok equity/SDV).

    And KTo is still rather a marginal hand, esp. OOP.

    So what is more important, position or initiative?

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,778 ✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    go on the flop with initiative and range advantage (and with still ok equity/SDV).

    And KTo is still rather a marginal hand, esp. OOP.

    So what is more important, position or initiative?

    strategy and plan
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 383 ✭✭✭
    edited January 31
    Red wrote: »
    And KTo is still rather a marginal hand, esp. OOP. So I'm not that happy to call with as it will be hard to realize our equity - except with a strong postflop edge / read.. (Thus I'd be more about calling KTs and raising KTo.)

    Against a reg's button near-min-open I absolutely think we can defend KTo even OOP and without initiative. But I guess those are just my two cents. I think I'd call all the way down to around K8o or K7o.

    Save +EV 3-bet bluffs for weaker hands which we can't call with so we can play as many hands in a +EV manner as possible.

    As a side note: villain has c-bet 4 out of 11 times so we will have a less hard time to realise our equity.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,764 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You are both right in the sense that you are the cusp of what can be 3b vs flatted. But if you accept my proposition, you also have to accept that it won't make the hand any easier to play if you change how you vpip it. For the record, the flat looks good and right to me. Remember, by min raising, a player retains his ability to flat a reraise profitably, so the worse our linear 3bets are, the better the button will do.
  • EurocratEurocrat Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
    Me personally, I did not consider 3betting KTo in this spot because I dont think its strong enough for value and I felt like there are other hands in my range that are easier for me to navigate postflop. I think I would probably 3bet small suited Ax and some one-gappers, but I feel that I will have to look at this again.

    A somewhat general question, but since it was mentioned, how do we adjust our 3-betting range depending on the OR size?
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 383 ✭✭✭
    edited February 5
    I think if the opening size is smaller, we are more incentivized to call with more hands which we would otherwise fold (or 3-bet as a bluff). E.g. we might nog call A2o to a 3x open BB vs BU, but against a 2x open it's a fine call. Purely due to a massive improvement in pot odds.

    That means the hands we select as 3-bet bluffs are going to be different. But I don't see a reason right now to change the width of our value 3-betting range and hence our 3-bet bluffing range.

    But would love to hear what others have to say on the topic.
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 383 ✭✭✭
    Though one thing I can think of is that villain will have an easier time calling more speculative hands due to improved implied odds, so we can expand our value range (and hence our bluffing range)
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 383 ✭✭✭
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
    This is sort of an empty answer cuz I don't have anything to point to but, in theory, there's a point where folding your Blind in the BB becomes more -EV than flatting to a min open by the BU. There a section somewhere in the "grinder's manual"...

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