Two pair on dynamic board with huge reraise on turn.

Ppacman73Ppacman73 Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
Hey guys wanted you option on this hand that I just played at borgata in Nj in a 1/2 game.
I dont have much info on Villian except he tried I river bet bluff earlier with air,but the pot was small and the bluff was only 20 dollars. Here’s go the hand goes.

I’m on button with 500 dollars villian has about 450. I’m on the button with :Ah :Ts
Villan is in the big blind. Three other people limp. I make it 15 to go. Every one calls. Board comes :As :Qs :6h I make it 30 villian call under the gun player calls. Turn is the :Tc I bet 65. Villian thinks all but two seconds then reraise took 260? Now with that kind of bet how should I continue?

Comments

  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 391 ✭✭✭
    As a general rule, turn raises are generally a sign of a very strong hand.

    I don't think there's a single combo in V range of a made hand that does this that you currently beat. So I think the question becomes is V willing to make a large turn raise here with air or a draw?

    If I'm V I would consider a x/r with many of my draws on the flop but would be less inclined on the turn when V fires a second time; however, your turn bet is a smaller proportion of the pot than the flop bet was (50% on flop, 41% on turn.) So maybe this signaled weakness to V and he was more inclined to make a large bluff. However, I think the general rule stands in this scenario. If we have no idea about V's propensity to bluff (the $20 example doesn't really apply here IMO), then we lay this down.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,247 ✭✭✭✭
    I don't mind the open, but I might adjust my sizing or hand selection based on the game dynamic.


    If the table: limps, but is inelastic about calling raises, I'm actually more inclined to choose stronger hands, and really hammer them. After all, if you play 1-2 hands per hour at a 1-2 table where they all limp :7D: :5D: but then are willing to call a $15-$20 raise, I can just sit back and push and knock out a nice win rate by being a dirty equity pre-flop pusher.



    If the table limps, and then folds to bigger pre-flop raises, then this is a fine open, but I like the ole 5BB + 1 BB per limper, making this raise more like $16-18. If it's just a cold sat down no reads on players yet, this is an open to the above mentioned price.


    On the flop, $90 pot in the pot? You said everyone called, so 3 limpers, + SB and BB? So if this is a 6 way pot, this is not a c-bet. Even with top pair. If this is 5 ways, this might not even be a c-bet, as we should choose AK, AQ, AA, QQ and 66 as our c-bets. Maybe :KS: :JS: and :KS: :TS: as our c-bets. If it is really 6 way, or even 5 way, explain to me the bet, and the sizing choice. 1/3 sizing, as so many people play fit or fold, may accomplished some equity denial, but if V's start raising you with FD's, as well as made hands, your all of the sudden forced to start calling down with Ax's against hands beating you or hands that have good equity vs you, and before you know it there's a 400 BB pot and you have a marginal hand. So, 5 ways, sure, maybe A10 is a smaller c-bet here if people will play fit or fold, you are on the button, so that's nice, but I just want to know what's your reason for betting, and why the sizing.


    On the turn, I know you picked up 2 pair, and there are still FD's our there that you wanna charge for, but the ten is not a great card for you. Consider this: after you c-bet multi-way, you get 2 callers. What does their range look like? What hands logically call, and what hands would raise you on the flop bet? If I had a set there, hands that limp call, I might raise here. You hold the :TS: , so strong FD + SD combos are not possible, which might raise the flop. So some of the made hands, and strong equity hands that might raise the flop aren't present. That leaves derpy hands like KJ, or maybe a :QS: :9S: that now feels they got a SD + FD that is a good raise here.


    Either way, the turn is now a fold IMO. Your playing a guessing game, your hand is deceptively weak, and was never strong enough to c-bet into a 5/6 MW pot without strong justification (do the maths on different sizings, % of the time it needs to work, and mess around with what hands you would c-bet with, if you get raised a certain % of the time, what % of hands you need to continue with. It will show you that if you don't wanna make big mistakes, flopping a pair and being afraid of being "outdrawn" is a mistake many players including myself use to make. Now I'm not saying there's not a justification for betting here. In fact, I like a nice little 30-40% c-bet here, but you just gotta know why your choosing that sizing, and what hands selection to do it with, and in what position (hint, position).
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,883 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't mind the open

    If it were an open, I wouldn't "mind" it either.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,247 ✭✭✭✭
    Cheeky. Terminology aside, I believe the value of my post stands. The limp signifies simply that they have a hand they wish to play, but generally it is not a strong hand. So...the purpose of the raise still stands: either they are limp folding too often and we can pick up the dead money enough to justify the raise, with decent equity when called, making it a good hand to raise with, OR they are limp calling too much, potentially with hands as strong as AJ, which make's this a poor choice to raise with. I'm not gonna chase anyone down the rabbit hole of player pool tendencies and making assumptions about players. If I sit down at the lowest stake's live game and I see a bunch of players limp in front of me and I'm on the button, I'm going to assume they will limp fold too much until they prove it to me otherwise. You can have your own assumptions or lack there of and adjust your strategy accordingly or simply observe the game for an orbit or two to try to obtain more information if you want.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,883 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes, the is the issue. When you are indifferent and confused about an open and a raise, you'll invariably make mistakes. The more limpers, the stronger the isolation simply must be, as even a forked limping range will give hands like A10o more than they can handle.

    At the Borgata in particular, limping ranges will be extremely diffuse but the top end will be very strong.
  • Ppacman73Ppacman73 Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
    Thanks guys for your advice and options on the hand. Yes when I made it 15 with :Ah :Ts . The limpers in general who were in the hand(should have mention this in the original post)Seemed very limp fold.Although I’ve noticed that borgata players suffer from somthing I jokingly like to refer to the domino effect. If the first to act after a raise calls it creates a domino effect we’re every one regardless of hand strength calls.That is why I decided to cbet the flop felt like I could still have the best hand and also thin the field.Also since it was checked around to me I usually see in my player pool population that most people who have a strong hand would bet out for fear of the flush draw. I agree I should have sized bigger on the flop like maybe to 40?
  • Ppacman73Ppacman73 Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
    Hey jfarrow13 I wasn’t trying to ignore your advice with my last post I just feel like your right some people limp then continue with AJ but I know A lot of people limp call with a lot of Ax below Ace ten also a lot of limp folding so I don’t feel ace ten on the button is a fold.


  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,583 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As a general rule, turn raises are generally a sign of a very strong hand.

    Not simply that but a check/call, check/raise.

    Small stakes players are notorious for slowplaying big hands on the flop, and ironically spring their trap when the board takes away their nut rank. For example, people slowplaying a set until the flush comes in, then start getting aggressive with it. Which really makes no sense, but you see it all the time.

    So this could either be a big hand such as 2 pair or a set on the flop that woke up even though broadway got there, or broadway that just got there. Hands like AT/QT are a little different because they didn't flop big. For some unknown reason, those players tend to notice that while the turn improved their hand, it also put broadway out there and they tend to be more cautious. A turned set is possible I suppose, but you block it. The obvious KJ is probably the leading candidate. Something like :JS: :9S: is possible, but I just don't see that being check/call, check/raised by most.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,583 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 30
    Ppacman73 wrote: »
    Although I’ve noticed that borgata players suffer from somthing I jokingly like to refer to the domino effect.

    Are you saying you haven't played anywhere but the Borgata, or that you have but you haven't noticed this anywhere else?

    Overall, I think you need to think about your bet sizing and the size of the pot and what the other players in the hand see and what those sizings accomplish. You say big hands would bet into you because they're scared of the flush draw. I would counter with the fact that I hear "check to the raiser" a lot in poker games. Many people will assume/hope you will c-bet here.

    The domino effect is more likely when the early players are offered close to 4:1, right? Note that I'm not suggesting you should necessarily be betting at all.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,919 -
    ^^^^^ The domino effect is essentially offering a decent price which improves as every opponent calls. It's universal.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Ppacman73Ppacman73 Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Ppacman73 wrote: »
    Although I’ve noticed that borgata players suffer from somthing I jokingly like to refer to the domino effect.

    Are you saying you haven't played anywhere but the Borgata, or that you have but you haven't noticed this anywhere else?

    Overall, I think you need to think about your bet sizing and the size of the pot and what the other players in the hand see and what those sizings accomplish. You say big hands would bet into you because they're scared of the flush draw. I would counter with the fact that I hear "check to the raiser" a lot in poker games. Many people will assume/hope you will c-bet here.

    The domino effect is more likely when the early players are offered close to 4:1, right? Note that I'm not suggesting you should necessarily be betting at all.

    No I’ve seen this all the time in 1/2 games,but yes I mostly play at borgata.

    Yes when I hear usually check to the raiser I get more I have a drawing hand let’s see what the preflop raiser does. Now when it’s heads up I agree people will get really with big made hands. Although I got to say when they think the boards getting scary they try to shut it down to win the pot. Like Edd Miller said in the coarse people that think they have a big hand will try to bet every one out for fear of being out drawn. Which is what I think happened in this hand.

    Now for the odds I get it but having 4to1 with trash isn’t a positive ev play. Which I see a lot of people get board limp in with trash hands then late position raises early just calls. Then there like wow now I got odds. Which in a lot of situations is going to get them in trouble.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,247 ✭✭✭✭
    @Ppacman73 Well, then for the reasons you listed, A10o can indeed become a raise, and if you really are sure that big hands would lead into you on the flop (I would generally disagree about lower stake's player pools and leading on this board, I believe their thinking is more along the lines of "I'll hope someone bets, then I'll raise big, and win a great $100 pot and nobody gets to draw out on me!"), then you can even possibly justify the flop bet. However, as @persuadeo pointed out, A10o is near the bottom of our raising range on the button here, and if part of your strategy does involve picking up dead money from limpers who fold too much, then an integral part must also be avoiding errors post flop with many marginal hands that you will arrive with here if you do indeed like to steal limps. I'm not saying that you check this flop and then crumble on the turn, or even that you might not want to bet this flop.



    If you run 99-22,ATs-A2s,KJs-K9s,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s,AJo-A9o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo, in flopzilla vs your hand, you're in decent shape, only a set 1.52% of the time, you got almost all the TP's crushed, only only AJo is beating you, 5% FD's and 20% gutshots. But when you make this 5 ways, I just think that someone really have a decent portion of this, and if you think about this in terms of making money here, you A. Don't have to win this pot a ton to break even or make money, so betting isn't the worst option, but you can win the pot by either betting or making it to showdown, and if you do have showdown value, which this hand does, either betting small into fit or fold players to thin the field, and then using position to try to make it showdown I think is the best choice, or, choosing a stronger hand that can handle a raise here to bet. The problem with betting is that if you get raised right off the bat on the flop, now not only do you A. Lose the fact that you don't have to win this pot a ton in order to show profit, but also B. Are now seeing money rush in with a hand you don't want to see money rush in with. So, it's up to you to make an educated decision and maybe do some homework on the maths. How often do you think you'll be raised here and get blown off your equity/SD value? How often do you actually have the best hand here in a 5/6 way pot, and how difficult is it for the best hand to stay the best hand by the time the river runs out vs a range of hands that will call the flop bet? If you goal is equity denial or at least to charge them to attempt to realize that equity, what hands do we want to choose, and with what sizing?




    I'd play the hand like this if I were you: arrive at the flop 5 ways, $90 in the pot.
    Checks to me, I may bet like $30 if I think people are going to play extremely honestly, because my bet is face-up. It's clear I don't have a very strong hand and am trying to deny equity, my hand is a weak ace or a drawing hand that wants to see a turn. Good opponents will punish you for this sizing choice, so if you think you are facing good opponents, I will check this flop, and only bet with hands that are strong enough to face a raise and will size up to deny equity.



    Turn: I am going to check. My hand is good, and has a ton of SD value, but FD's + SD's likely called the flop, as well as potentially aces. Sure, I have to dodge a fair amount of cards on the river, but I can also stand to make money on the river by A. Betting if a safe card comes with a large sizing, and hope to get hero called by Ax that thinks I had a FD ect.
    B. Call a bet when a safe card comes, using this hand as a semi-bluff catcher (though my hand still rates to be best a fair amount of the time)
    C. Improving to a FH, in which a straight will still likely think it has the best hand, or perhaps even counter-fitting a set of 6's



    I don't have an issue folding if a K, J, 9 or spade comes, because w.e that's poker. I am gonna be really sad if a :2H: comes on the river and someone pots/over bets it, and I'm not gonna do the math here you can about making call downs/EV, but you get the point.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,583 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 31
    Ppacman73 wrote: »
    Now for the odds I get it but having 4to1 with trash isn’t a positive ev play.

    Yes but the context of that comment was the domino effect. So let's say the first player doesn't have trash. Let's say it's anything from a flush draw to a 5 outer. Now the next player gets 5:1, and the next gets 6:1. There aren't too many reasonable hands that are in horrible shape getting 6:1, but he might have the weakest hand of the 3.

    Offer worse odds to start and it never gets to that guy.

    I'm sure you've heard many many times at a poker table, "well now I gotta call", "If you had folded I would have folded", "If you had called I would have called", etc. Point being, most players figure out how to player poker by listening and watching the people around them. So they think of outs and odds in a very vague way. With "a draw" you need "a couple callers".

  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,247 ✭✭✭✭
    Also, I used to term "dead money" incorrectly, just like "open". To be completely honest, I have no idea what the hell I'm talking about. I just thought throwing around a lot of poker jargon and big words would make people people think I'm cool.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,883 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think you used it fine. Dead money as better defined by Seidman is a measure of inefficiency. He categorizes it as 1) passive dead money, meaning vpips that can't or won't be defended enough; this is the most common low stakes vpip error, which Ed Miller attempted to loosely correct through his 1% book, and 2) aggressive dead money, where the attack or counterattack is overplayed; in low stakes games this comes up in bet sizing most frequently, such as all the posters here who default to 66% - 75% pot bets on boards their range can't sustain, both in size and frequency.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,583 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    Also, I used to term "dead money" incorrectly,

    Assuming the rest was sarcasm, I think you used it the way most people expect. Technically, it's money that has already been surrendered, but when you say "if we raise we pick up the dead money often enough" then we're really talking about potential dead money, in other words an attempt to create dead money. Tactics to create dead money are always worth considering.

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