Flopzilla Questions - flopping top pair with pocket 99s

MK12345MK12345 Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
Hey Guys....I have a Flopzilla question...I have been playing around with the software for a couple months now and had a question.....

(1) If i hold pocket 99s--->what is the probability/percentage that my 99s will be top pair after the flop (for example: let's say a flop of like 6, 4, 2)?

According to my numbers using Flopzilla:

CUMULATIVELY----> 99s will be top pair or overpair 28.6% of time and pp below tp 71.4% of the time.

Is that correct?

(2) What is the difference between tp and overpair and pp below tp? What does the "PP" stand for?

(3) Flopzilla also says that ABSOLUTELY my 99s will be an overpair 16.6% of the time, and pp below tp 42.9% of the time. Is that correct?

(4) What is the difference between absolute and cumulative?

(5) Finally, if i am dealt pocket 99s--->what is the probability that my 99's will remain the top pair by showdown?


How can I figure this all out by using Flopzilla?

THNKS. MIKE!

Comments

  • JMCollinsJMCollins Los AngelesRed Chipper Posts: 10 ✭✭
    A pocket pair can not flop top pair. It can be an overpair. Sorry for needless correction. PP = Pocket Pair.
  • MK12345MK12345 Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
    Thanks for the distinction. What's the difference between top pair and overpair?
  • ericmwhiteericmwhite Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    edited January 2019
    MK12345 wrote: »
    Thanks for the distinction. What's the difference between top pair and overpair?

    Top pair is when you are holding the highest card on the board. An overpair is when you have a pair in your hand higher than any card on the board.

    For example:

    You have top pair when you’re holding :JS::TS: and the flop comes :JH::3S::2S:

    You have an overpair when you hold :QS::QD: and the flop comes :JH::3S::2S:
  • MK12345MK12345 Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
    That was quite helpful. Thanks.
  • ericmwhiteericmwhite Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    MK12345 wrote: »
    That was quite helpful. Thanks.

    So much jargon. Happy to have been of help. Good luck with Flopzilla studying!

  • Zero CoolZero Cool Red Chipper Posts: 272 ✭✭✭
    MK12345 wrote: »
    CUMULATIVELY----> 99s will be top pair or overpair 28.6% of time and pp below tp 71.4% of the time.

    Just to be clear 99s will flop as an overpair or better 28.6% of the time. That includes the times when you flop a set, full house, or quads.
  • MK12345MK12345 Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
    What is the likelihood that my 99s will remain top pair on a board of 7, 4, 2 mixed suits by showdown? Thnks.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,960 -
    The odds 99 will remain an overpair to the board after the run-out is around 28%, assuming I'm mathing properly today.
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  • Zero CoolZero Cool Red Chipper Posts: 272 ✭✭✭
    99's will stay an overpair or improve to a set or quads 32.5% of the time.

    There's 5 cards show, leaving 47 unknown with 27 being 9 or less. So the odds on the turn of a card 9 or less coming is 27/47. The odds on the river of a card 9 or less after the turn is 9 or less is 26/46. Multiply those two number together and you get the odds of both happening which is 32.5%.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,960 -
    I took out the 9s since that gives us top set rather than an overpair, but yeah that's the calculation.
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  • Zero CoolZero Cool Red Chipper Posts: 272 ✭✭✭
    I figured that @TheGameKat just thought I would be helpful for OP to see how the calculation was done.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,960 -
    Zero Cool wrote: »
    I figured that @TheGameKat just thought I would be helpful for OP to see how the calculation was done.

    Good point, thank you.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Robert MRobert M Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
    edited January 2019
    MK12345 wrote: »

    (5) Finally, if i am dealt pocket 99s--->what is the probability that my 99's will remain the top pair by showdown?

    Using the same logic from Zero Cool and TheGameKat, before we know what the flop is, your 99 will be an over pair to the board only about 4.6% of the time by showdown.

    Pre-flop there are 50 unknown cards. 28 of those 50 will be an under card to the 99. After we remove the first of the 3 cards, you'll need to hit one of the 27 remaining under cards, for the third, one of the remaining 26 under cards and so on...

    28/50 * 27/49 * 26/48 * 25/47 * 24/46 = 4.6%

    When I first calculated this, it seemed very low to me, but now that I'm thinking back about it I can't remember many full run-outs that ended up being 8-high.
  • MK12345MK12345 Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
    Thanks for all the input. It's really nice to see how many people contribute to this site and the forum.

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