Set of Jacks on a gross board

rickmfrickmf Red Chipper Posts: 103 ✭✭
Flop. Should i be c betting here? I checked fully expecting villian to bet back, with the idea of check-raising and jamming if needed. Villian has been playing oddly, have seen him super agro and also just call station-y in the ~80 hands i played with him.

Turn. Thoughts on turn bet? I still thought i had some value here but board was already getting dicey. Expecting some of you to suggest a larger turn bet to protect against more draws. Or a check for pot control.

C. Is a bet on the river too risky as im not getting called with many worse hands, but really i'm only scared of the 10. I don't think he has KK QQ but given his style i guess it's possible. Say he does, would he fold his set to a river bet? Would a bet make sense here ever as a bluff with some SDV?

iPoker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 184.8 BB (VPIP: 40.26, PFR: 7.79, 3Bet Preflop: 8.57, Hands: 79)
CO: 134.2 BB (VPIP: 21.64, PFR: 18.22, 3Bet Preflop: 7.25, Hands: 9,371)
BTN: 39.4 BB (VPIP: 35.14, PFR: 13.96, 3Bet Preflop: 1.14, Hands: 230)
Hero (SB): 129.8 BB
BB: 109 BB (VPIP: 21.11, PFR: 17.78, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 2,838)
UTG: 162.9 BB (VPIP: 16.66, PFR: 11.19, 3Bet Preflop: 2.90, Hands: 5,052)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:heart: J:diamond:

fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, fold, MP calls 2.5 BB

Flop: (8 BB, 2 players) K:club: J:spade: 8:diamond:
Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: (8 BB, 2 players) 9:diamond:
Hero bets 4.8 BB, MP calls 4.8 BB

River: (17.6 BB, 2 players) Q:club:


Will post results if requested
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Comments

  • Zero CoolZero Cool Red Chipper Posts: 269 ✭✭✭
    If you checked the flop with the intention of check raising then I'm fine with it. Its not a tool I use too often but that's b/c my player pool is very passive, so as long as you believe V is going to take a stab at a high frequency then I think this is a good time for a check raise.

    The turn is absolutely a bet. You've under rep'ed your hand and there are plenty hands that V can have that you can get value from. I agree with using a larger size to polarize your range 3/4 or even full pot.

    We should be betting the river with the intention of folding to a raise. If we check there's going to be a lot of hands that V will check back that would also call a bet. I think there is a ton of 2 pair hands that V can have that will call a bet.
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 383 ✭✭✭
    Pre I'm sizing up my raise. My default would be 3BB + 1BB per limper + 1BB if OOP. So that would be 5BB in this case. You don't want to give BB a great price to call in position with the prospect of playing a pot against a fish, and you want to obvs. get as much money in the pot against the fish.

    Given passivity of the fish in play I dont really like check-raising, unless you've got some postflop reads on him.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,778 ✭✭✭✭
    Very fun to see that MP (Villain) has a higher 3bet % than his PFR % !
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
    YES YES... Size up preflop... OTF- If MP is overcalling his limp i'd certainly bet flop maybe 1/2 psb or a little less as you can still appear weak. I get the check plan too but there's a lot of draws already. Any 9 or T is a GS etc. He probably continues with any pair 7 or above...You want to start building the pot asap and he should be defending his PF overcall fairly wide. It sucks to flop middle set and get a fold but this board is already wet and there are a lot of scary turn cards for both of you. The 9d is one of them and great for V's range. I'm probably betting nearly pot OTT. I think the riv is a clear bet/fold.... You can get value out of many 2p and maybe even worse sets although i'd expect a raise on the turn from those hands... It's a sucky runout for sure. YES please let us know what happened
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 271 ✭✭
    edited January 30
    Everything has been said above. Checkraising makes more sense against aggro villains, this doesnt seem to be one of them. River is a good spot to bet/fold. Bet big to have an easier decision, you still get called by 2pair
  • rickmfrickmf Red Chipper Posts: 103 ✭✭
    river went check/ check.. Villian was holding AdKd (preflop limp/called and checked back top-top on the flop).

    When the flop hit I was immediately ready to push stacks knowing his range was wide, but the runout just got worse and worse and I was admittedly a little tilted at the time.

    Appreciate the notes here.

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