RAISING WEAK PAIR/ GS on Turn

obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
6-max .10NL 100bb effective (Hero)
Villian is reg who appears somewhat tight over 410 hands (17/14/2.5) vpip/pfr/3b-pre
UTG opens 2.5bb and folds to me on BU with :6d :6s
we go heads up
(7bb) FLOP :5c :Th :3d V cbets 5bb and I flat looking for low turn card
(17bb) TURN :7s V cbets 12bb and I raise to 29bb with 3rd pair and GS

I'm targeting overcards and Top pairs. I'd do the same with sets and 2p's to balance my fairly minimal draws. If V calls there's a few cards I'd consider shoving..Funny tho as I write this and analyzing for the first time it seems like there's a lot less logical draws with which I'd show up. 46s which i'd likely x/r flop..maybe float 89s...
Well then Villain shoves all-in which was sort of a surprise... V may have thought there were more draws than actual... He folds out my draws, he's a dog vs sets unless he has TT or 77....I'm thinking he may have lost value by shoving which is why I posted this hand. Interested in other's views..

PS I folded

Comments

  • PapaGiorgioPapaGiorgio Red Chipper Posts: 63 ✭✭
    Funny tho as I write this and analyzing for the first time it seems like there's a lot less logical draws with which I'd show up.

    I think you already have the correct answer. Would you really raise turn with trips and two-pair? This seems like a situation where you want villian to keep betting instead of making him fold. I think it's a different situation if there was a flush draw on the board as you can now rep straight and flush draws. But this board is rather dry and I can't really put you on 64. I'd call turn and call river bet if the river is T or less. It seems passive, but I don't think I'm getting called by worse hands if I raise, So to maximize my EV, I'm expecting villian to bet with more hands that he'd call. If villian checks river, then I'm putting out a value bet and hoping Ax calls as a bluff catcher.
  • rickmfrickmf Red Chipper Posts: 103 ✭✭
    2.5 open from UTG looks suspicious to me. At these low stakes these guys seem to sometimes be looking for a 3bet. 6 seated there is ~20% chance you are facing a higher pocket pair than 66.

    im not sure if you'll be pushing UTG off a board like this very easily even if he just has some broadways
  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 45 ✭✭
    oblivius wrote: »
    Villian is reg who appears somewhat tight over 410 hands (17/14/2.5)

    I'm targeting overcards and Top pairs. I'd do the same with sets and 2p's to balance my fairly minimal draws. If V calls there's a few cards I'd consider shoving..

    I believe if we drill down into V's stats in more detail, he's probably very fit or fold. I'm basing that assumption on what I see from others with similar numbers at these stakes. So when he bets a low card rainbow turn, I'm putting him on an overpair. He doesn't have too many Ts in his range. Think about how tight 14% PFR is. And how tight he'd have to be UTG on top of that. TT or ATs are the only Ts I see V opening from UTG. So V likely has JJ+ or TP. That means we have 6 outs to win this at showdown. I'm folding on the Turn.

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