Advanced EV equation question AK vs Premium hands

mwolovetz1mwolovetz1 Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
I am a newbie, thanks for addition to group.

Wondering if my math is right for this equation, if AK is profitable at the Mico level with a shove with AK?
Thanks in advance for the help!!

Hello,
Just a beginner poker player, I am a old dog in age, and in Canada.

Was wondering about the Advanced EV calculations for shoving for +EV.

Am I understanding the math correctly, if not please let me know and thanks for adding me to group.

Question: is AK pushing all in profitable at micos?
Here is my math is it correct?

AK vs Premium hand of QQ+, AK.
Assuming $1 stack at mico level for easy math?

No raisers, just blinds,(if you get one or more raisers should be more profitable?)
Fold % assuming they fold only 1% of time, and give you action.
.01(0.03) + .99 (.39%x2.03) - .99(.61 x $1) =0.184+ EV or .18 cents?

Thanks in advance for the help!!

Mark.




Answers

  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 468 ✭✭✭
    edited February 2
    I'm not really sure what you're trying to compute. Do you want to know the EV of shoving AK with 50bb getting called 99% of the time?

    That's fairly simple, and if you're going to get called 99% of the time that should easily be massively +EV.

    But then you're talking about getting action from QQ+ and AK. I don't really understand what you want to know.

    Or do you want to know what happens if they fold QQ+ and AK 1% of the time? Confused.
  • mwolovetz1mwolovetz1 Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
    Hi Lechiffre.
    Thanks for response, split suit at the poker bank indicated a advanced EV formula was needed in these situations as opposed to the simple formula, so the above must me used he said. Wanted to make sure I was understanding it right.
    I Wanted to know what hands were profitable going all in preflop and you need the above varibles.
    You are correct at the 1/2 cent no limit level a $1 stack is 50bb.
    With this equation we need this Formula but is my math correct.
    F($Pot) + C (%W x $W) - C (%L x $L)=EV

    $Pot =Pot before you shove.
    $W= What you would win the times your called and win.
    $L= What you lose when called and villain wins.
    %W= Amount of equity your hand has vs a hand or range of hands.
    F= Estimate of fold percent.
    C= estimate of called percent.

    I assumed a $1.00 dollar stack size with just the blinds, I shove AK and get called with a premium(worst case scenario hand) of QQ+, AK what's my EV??

    Thanks.




  • mwolovetz1mwolovetz1 Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
    Oh I fogot the %L is the amount equity loss. %l and %W always add up to 100%.
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 468 ✭✭✭
    Right, so if I understand correctly you want to know the EV of shoving when you only get called by QQ+ and AK.

    Since villain only calls with QQ+ and AK, he will call 1.6% of the time and hence fold 98.4% of the time.

    So F = 0.984
    C = 0.016
    $Pot is indeed 0.03
    %W = our equity with AK vs QQ+/AK which is 40%, so 0.4
    %L is hence 0.6
    $L = 1.00
    $W = 1.03 (the current pot + villain's stack)

    So our EV is 0.984*0.03 + 0.016*(0.4 x 1.03) - 0.016 (0.6 x 1.00)
    = 0.027 which is almost 3 cents, or almost 1.5bb.

    Hope that answers your question!

    Couple disclaimers:
    - We have shown it's +EV, but that doesn't mean it's the highest EV line. You could shove AA every single time you get it, and of course it will be +EV, but there's more money to be made in other ways
    - This scenario assumes neither you and villain are in the blinds and the players in the blinds always fold. So take it with a grain of salt :)
  • mwolovetz1mwolovetz1 Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭

    Hi LeChiffre,
    I see right away that if the numbers you gave are correct I was in error, as I was putting my "stack" in equation in the %W side of formula as I was using $2.03 (my stack + villains stack + blinds ) or $1+$1+$o.o3.
    I guess I was in error on that so thank you!!


  • mwolovetz1mwolovetz1 Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
    Some are saying that my F value is not realistic?
    I am using flopzilla numbers of QQ+,AK is about 3 percent, but my real life F number is most likely closer to 20%? some would say?

    I used the 3% of hands as the worst case scenario thinking that anyone with QQ+,AK will be calling most if not all of the times?

    Any suggestions at the appropriate estimation for the "F" number in the Advanced EV formula?

    Thanks.
    M.

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