78o on button facing 3 ALL INs

PPLPPL Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
edited February 2 in Live Poker Hands
Hi everyone,

Thanks for taking the time to go through this hand with me. First off I want to say all comments will be appreciated.

Game is live 1-3 with options to straddle utg or button. I am the button with $500. Chip leader to my right with $700. Everyone else chip counts in between with lowest around $126.

Actions starts off with utg (tight) open limped. Then utg+1 (tight) raise to 15. Utg+2 (tight) called. Then co called as well (tight).

I was on the button with :7c :8h . I called.

Bb called as well action back to utg open limper. Now the pot is already $78.

Now here gets interesting. Utg 3 bets to $100. Then utg+1 called pretty quickly. Then utg+2 goes all in for $126. Now action to co. He ranked and folded.

Now it’s my action. I have :7c :8h . What would you do in this spot?

My read was all the utgs had a big pocket pairs. I was doing the math. I need to call $85 to win ($15 + $100 + $100 + $126 + $15 +$100) $456. Which means my hand just needs to have at least 18% to be a break even call. The math tells me it’s not right to call since my hand is only worth 16% equity assuming I am up against :As :Ad , :Kd :Kc , and :Qc :Qh but then utg and utg+1 both had about $200 behind so those chips are going in no matter what the flop was.

Bb folded. And flop came :2d :7d :9s

Utg immediately goes all in for $200. Utg+1 thinks for a bit then called for $190. Then action back to me.

Clearly I hit my pair but only a 7. Which means my equity to the river is 5 outs or around 20%. Now back to the math. The pot when action is on me is $456 + $200 + $190 = $846. So if I called the $200. Then my pot odds is 19%. So I did that little calculation in my head then I pushed out my $200 and called.

Then turn came :5d and river was the gin card :6s . Giving me a STRAIGHT.

utg shows :As :Ad

Utg+1 shows :Kd :Kh

Utg+2 mucked. But I assume he had a premium pair as well.

The co guy next to me said 78 is good here! Then I rolled over my cards and the whole table gone wild lol (and some gone mad)

So what do you guys think about my play here? Was there anything I did wrong here? Did I make the right called? Was my math way off? Was my thinking flawed through out the hand?

After winning the hand I said to the table “this hand all I need is a little guts, a little luck, and a little math”

All comments and insight are appreciated! Thanks you for taking the time to go through the hand with me!

Alan

Comments

  • JDWPokerJDWPoker Simi Valley, CA.Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    Wow! Congrats on dragging that one!

    This is where I have trouble with the math. Based on your reads of everyone in the hand, you have to know that you're way behind pre-flop. I'm folding in that spot every time, I think. Yes, I know, this is a nice hand to catch all those tight players if the flop is favorable, like flopping a set, or 2 pair, or maybe even an OESD.

    So now the flops comes and you've gotten lucky (?) and caught a piece. Regardless, you still have to think that you're still way behind. The betting that takes place almost certainly says so too, I believe.

    I'll give it to you, the math sounds about right, and it was definitely close, but what are you hoping to see, honestly? Another 7, an 8? I know catching runner, runner here isn't something I'd be thinking of, but if you did, good on you.

    For me, this is way out there. Once again, Im glad it worked out for you, but I think the question remains, over time, do you truly think your play is a profitable one? Interesting. :)
  • BourbonizeBourbonize Red Chipper Posts: 43 ✭✭
    Why in the world are you calling a $15 preflop raise with 87o?
  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 836 ✭✭✭✭
    edited February 2
    Fold, ure calling to break even
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  • Zero CoolZero Cool Red Chipper Posts: 270 ✭✭✭
    Welcome to RCP and congrats on the nice pot. The analysis on this hand is simple fold pre-flop to the $15 bet. There's no reason to call with this hand and doing so is only going to put you into many difficult spots.

    Your math calculation, while close(your calling 111 not 85), does make one common misunderstanding. The equity you have, about 17%, assumes you see all 5 cards not just the flop. About 5% of the time you will flop 2 pair or better with 87o, the rest of the time you will either miss and have to fold whatever equity you have left or you will hit a small part, like you did, and have to put more money in realize your equity.
  • PPLPPL Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    edited February 3
    Firstly thanks for all the inputs!

    To answer many above as to why I called $15 with a not even closed to premium hand :7c :8H: in the first place. Threefold:

    1: I had insane pod odds. $15 to win $49 when actions on me. But if we also assume that sb and bb and utg would also call to close the action then it’s even better odds for me to call. This is a good assumption as players on the blinds had not squeezed once in the 4 hours I sat with them on the table.

    2: I was in the best positon at the table and I know these guys all have either big pairs or 2 face cards. And I was confident that my edge with post play could overcome my choice of hands I play at this spot.

    3: if I had something better like Ax or Kx or middling pair. I would’ve actually still called the $15 but fold to any extreme action later on when utg decides to repop to $100. Because I know I will likely be dominated or just be in really bad shape middle pair against another over pair.

    If 78o is a fold to everyone. Would 78s be a called? And if we face the same action then what would you do? Or if 78s is not a called then what would be the worst hand for you to call at this spot?
  • CactusCardsCactusCards ArizonaRed Chipper Posts: 137 ✭✭
    PPL wrote: »
    If 78o is a fold to everyone. Would 78s be a called?

    No. this is always a fold pre, and continues to be a fold on the flop. Calling to break even when you know you’re dominated isn’t a +EV play.
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,771 -
    edited February 4
    Fold pre at every opportunity you had to fold.

    You are jumping through flaming mathematical hoops here to justify bad gambles. If you want to gamble, there are roulette wheels with well established pay tables near most poker rooms.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • PPLPPL Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    edited February 5
    Once again thanks for everyone’s inputs on my decisions with this hand. It seems like everyone agrees this is a straight forward fold Pre whether it’s 78 suited or not.

    However also as part of my pursue to increase the probability of playing this entire hand in a +EV way, I also would like inputs as to what better hands do you flat ($15) here pre given the action?

    And then when the actions comes back to me the second time facing the $111 call, what’s the worst hands I call here? Is it KK only? And jam, just AA? Fold all other hands?

  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,771 -
    PPL wrote: »

    However also as part of my pursue to increase the probability of playing this entire hand in a +EV way, I also would like inputs as to what better hands do you flat ($15) here pre given the action?

    And then when the actions comes back to me the second time facing the $111 call, what’s the worst hands I call here? Is it KK only? And jam, just AA? Fold all other hands?

    These are great questions to ask.

    Especially the "call/call" line: can you accept that there might be zero hands that should take that line?
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • Zero CoolZero Cool Red Chipper Posts: 270 ✭✭✭
    PPL wrote: »
    1: I had insane pod odds. $15 to win $49 when actions on me. But if we also assume that sb and bb and utg would also call to close the action then it’s even better odds for me to call. This is a good assumption as players on the blinds had not squeezed once in the 4 hours I sat with them on the table.

    2: I was in the best positon at the table and I know these guys all have either big pairs or 2 face cards. And I was confident that my edge with post play could overcome my choice of hands I play at this spot.

    Pot odds can be a double edge sword. The assumption about the players behind you may be true and them calling would improve your pot odds but it also reduces the post-flop SPR. This is not a great trade off when you have a hand that needs play-ability post(not that 87o really has much) and negates any edge you have over the other players.
    PPL wrote: »
    However also as part of my pursue to increase the probability of playing this entire hand in a +EV way, I also would like inputs as to what better hands do you flat ($15) here pre given the action?

    And then when the actions comes back to me the second time facing the $111 call, what’s the worst hands I call here? Is it KK only? And jam, just AA? Fold all other hands?

    Hands that you could probably flat here are pocket pairs to set mine or some suited broadways but given the action my calling range here is going to be very narrow.

    As Doug indicated there really shouldn't be any hands you take a call/call line with here since you should have already 3-bet any of the hands that could have called the 111.
  • PPLPPL Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    I love how some replies are justified and not just one sentence dictational statement like some replies in this thread. It really shows dispite my bad play here some of you have an open mind to explore with me other hands that may be viable in this situation and I appreciate it. Have a good one everybody!

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