Multiway action with nut flush draw

rickmfrickmf Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
edited February 3 in Online Poker Hands
Here's an example of a lot of action from two villains that make odds to continue attractive here, however while likely being behind at the moment.

Thoughts on this post flop action?

iPoker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 215.9 BB (VPIP: 23.91, PFR: 18.65, 3Bet Preflop: 6.66, Hands: 5,705)
SB: 188.8 BB (VPIP: 12.08, PFR: 9.60, 3Bet Preflop: 4.02, Hands: 1,176)
BB: 89.9 BB (VPIP: 17.48, PFR: 2.45, 3Bet Preflop: 2.19, Hands: 329)
UTG: 155.8 BB (VPIP: 26.25, PFR: 11.50, 3Bet Preflop: 6.57, Hands: 405)
Hero (UTG+1): 101.5 BB
MP: 135.4 BB (VPIP: 21.79, PFR: 4.47, 3Bet Preflop: 1.37, Hands: 179)
CO: 253.4 BB (VPIP: 41.05, PFR: 17.89, 3Bet Preflop: 14.63, Hands: 95)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:heart: A:heart:

UTG calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) 9:heart: 2:heart: K:diamond:
BB checks, Hero bets 2.5 BB, MP calls 2.5 BB, BB raises to 15 BB, Hero calls 12.5 BB, MP raises to 47.5 BB, BB raises to 86.9 BB,

The 2.5 c-bet here is a bit small, but multiway i wasn't comfortable betting very large, and didn't want to check here either.

I call the 12.5bb check/raise, even though the odds to draw aren't that great but im not ready to fold potential nut flush (bad idea?), then the initial caller raises behind me, and the initial check raiser shoves all in.

OK. So we've got one all-in for ~90bb, another villain behind me who is likely to call, now i'm getting ~3:1 on a nutflush draw with two cards coming.

How often should we fold vs jam? There are only so many made hands on this board, a set of KKs being best, but there was no 3 bet so seems unlikely (tho noting villains 3-bet%, they rarely do). So at worst I think i'm up against a set of 9's, top-top, two pair type hands, all of which I beat if I hit (and they don't improve).

Is this actually a coinflip, or is this situation -EV because the hands we are likely up against have ability to improve to beat us (sets/ two pair can improve to boats). Or do I still have good odds to jam here and attempt to triple up?



Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,269 -
    Looks like a good Equilab exercise.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • rickmfrickmf Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
    yeah i've started running it a bit, and will continue to look at this hand a bit more.
    curious what the forum here would do

    The hand did make it to showdown so I will post results if people want to see them.
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    edited February 6
    it appears that you have zero fold equity (LOL) so it's a pure odds situation. It's a bit trickier since multiway but looks like the side pot will only be 10bb. Also the hand equities change multiway so yeah... do some "lab" maths. Just looking at it i'd think it's pretty close to a call.

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