When do I hit the fold button?

Robert MRobert M Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
This hand is from a live $260 Deep Stack event at Rivers in Pittsburgh. The main villain is in the CU and is a LAG reg, plays a lot of hands IP. Later on one of the other players that seemed to know him a little, said he is "very capable" of making plays and big bluffs.

Blinds are 300/600/600 (BB ante)
Hero has the effective stack which is around 65K
Hero is UTG +2 with :Kd :Kc
UTG +1 limps hero raise to 2200, CU (V) and UTG +1 call (Pot: 8100)
Flop comes :Td :Tc :2d
checks to hero who continues for 3100, V calls, UTG +1 folds
Turn: :7h
Hero: bets 4500, V raises to 17,500 hero calls
River: :8h
hero checks, V shoves the remaining ~35K
Hero tanks for a few min, was very close to a call but ended up folding

This is the range I put on villain to flat from the CU
TT-22,AJo-A8o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,ATs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s

How is my line/bet sizing here in general?

How often should I be c-betting this flop with KK?

I think with the turn raise he only has trip 10s, boats, some nut flush draws and a handful of weird combo draws. Am I giving a LAG reg too much credit?

I think my decision to fold the river jam was correct, but should I have folded to the turn raise instead? Looking back I don't know if I see enough hands he can bluff raise the turn and jam river? How important is hero having the :Kd here? Is not having a diamond here enough to change the decision?

Comments

  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 382 ✭✭✭
    edited February 7
    I think the flop works better as a check-call:

    - It's hard to get 3 streets of value with this hand given the texture so there's certainly no urgency in that regard
    - We hold a diamond so we don't have to worry so much about giving away a free diamond and villains will hold fewer diamond draws to charge.
    - Equity denial is pretty much irrelevant
    - Aggro villain behind can put is in a tough spot on later streets where the pot will be bigger

    As played I don't see the point in betting turn. You're strengthening villain's calling range to the point where you don't beat a whole lot anymore, and if he decides to raise -- which given player type was not unexpected -- you're in a spot where you have to decide now to play for stacks and you're not quite sure where you are.

  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 42 ✭✭
    I also prefer check/calling this flop. The flop doesn't hit a lot of our 3b range. We have a lot of air right now. And we're OOP in a multiway pot.

    Your turn sizing seems bad to me. We're giving diamond draws a great price. You also bet a smaller percentage of the pot compared to your cbet. To me, that shows some uncertainty in your hand strength. Makes it easy for guys to raise you and put you in a tough spot.

    If he has a T, I think he would have raised that on the flop. Multiway, and vulnerable to diamond draws, raising seems like the best option for a T. And it is what I would expect a LAG player to do.

    The Turn raise says to me that V wants to go for stacks. He's not raising us 13k and then not shoving the river. So I think if we call this turn, we have to be expecting to get it all-in on the river. Maybe we're supposed to find a fold here on the turn. I'd have to throw it in Flopzilla at home and see what the numbers say.
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 382 ✭✭✭
    If he has a T, I think he would have raised that on the flop. Multiway, and vulnerable to diamond draws, raising seems like the best option for a T. And it is what I would expect a LAG player to do.

    I think that's far too conclusive.
  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 42 ✭✭
    LeChiffre wrote: »
    If he has a T, I think he would have raised that on the flop. Multiway, and vulnerable to diamond draws, raising seems like the best option for a T. And it is what I would expect a LAG player to do.

    I think that's far too conclusive.

    You're probably right. My main reasoning is, if you have a T and you're a LAG, why choose to raise a seemingly blank Turn card instead of the flop? Why not charge diamond draws and overpairs on two streets instead of one?
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 315 ✭✭✭
    LeChiffre wrote: »
    If he has a T, I think he would have raised that on the flop. Multiway, and vulnerable to diamond draws, raising seems like the best option for a T. And it is what I would expect a LAG player to do.

    I think that's far too conclusive.

    You're probably right. My main reasoning is, if you have a T and you're a LAG, why choose to raise a seemingly blank Turn card instead of the flop? Why not charge diamond draws and overpairs on two streets instead of one?

    Well when hero raises in EP pre he is going to have less diamond draws in his range. Not a ton of people are opening suited connectors in EP, so I think his draws focus on the premium hands AK, AQ, KQ and there are a ton of players who are not even opening KQ in EP. So for V, I'm not sure if I hold a Tx, that he is going to worry about raising here when he can be reasonably certain that he is ahead and can punish Hero when he fires a second barrel.

    And even if the diamond draw gets there, we still have an easy x/c line being behind hero before a river decision. So from Vs perspective, I think the turn raise better sets him to get he stacks in if he does indeed hold a ten and generate a fold from Hero enough of the time when he wants to go for a bluff. My two cents anyway.
  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 42 ✭✭
    edited February 7
    Ok, that makes sense. A Turn raise, River shove might be the best way to get stacks in. Where as Flop raise and Turn bet could be less value. If we are V, we give Hero a chance to catch up. If we raise flop and bet again on Turn, Hero can fold a lot of air easily.

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