check raising the turn

ryon341ryon341 Red Chipper Posts: 89 ✭✭
i am working my way through the CORE program and have just watched the videos on check raising the flop and turn. I watched the turn video twice and i guess i just don't understand his explanation. I'm hoping I can get some different explanations.

He explains that a hand with no SDV may not be +EV to check / call, but could be for a check / raise. i can't make sense of this. If I have a nut flush draw that didn't improve on the turn, there is still a chance it cold improve on the river, but it's only 18%. If I check and villain bets, which means he's held on through preflop and post flop bets, and he still believes he has sufficient equity to bet the turn, The most likely scenario - 82% of the time - I'm not going to hit the River, so I'm paying him a lot more money than if I call or fold.

I'm not to make up a hypothetical scenario so someone can explain how this is profitable.

I have :Ah :TH: on MP 150BB effective stack.
I bet 3 BB, Villain calls from Hijack

Flop goes :7h :3h :JD:

I check, villain bet 1/2 pot I call. (maybe I should check raise)

Turn :9C:

The pot size is now about 15 BB.

Am I correct that I only have 18% equity in this pot?

Ami I correct that, for correct pot odds, if I am putting more than about $ 3.00 into this pot, it's -EV move?

How much fold equity does this need to generate in order to make it a +EV scenario?

Comments

  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 456 ✭✭✭
    The gist of it is that when you have 0 SDV, you'll need your opponent to fold some of the time so you can win the pot without going to showdown to make up for the times where you miss your draw.

    We get 0 FE by check/calling, right? So continuing without direct PO we need will not be profitable if we are not building any fold equity into the equation. Our strategy with draws can't be check/call with them all the time because (and these are not all the reasons):

    1) We won't always be getting the direct pot odds we need to continue (especially on turn)

    2) We become SUPER easy to play against when a draw gets there and now want to do some betting. People will exploit us by folding.

    3) Players at lower limits way over fold because of Monster Under The Bed Syndrome.

    (Also in your example above, one of the 3 remaining aces could be an out for you, too. I realize that isn't the point, but just keep that in mind.)
  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    I'm getting 30% with the quick calculation of outs x 2 = equity on the turn.

    3 As, 3 8s, 9 hearts = 15 outs, or 30% equity

    Someone will surely correct me if I'm wrong.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,052 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Actually you are beating at least 5 flush draws, not to mention any other bluffs, meaning you have far more equity against a range than you think, along with pure sdv. You have reasons to both xc and xr here on the turn.
  • ryon341ryon341 Red Chipper Posts: 89 ✭✭
    @Brews_and_Cards I think you are correct. This board has 30% equity. That's not really my point. I just made this board up - its not a real hand. My point is we have -EV if we don't include fold equity.
    1) We won't always be getting the direct pot odds we need to continue (especially on turn)

    2) We become SUPER easy to play against when a draw gets there and now want to do some betting. People will exploit us by folding.


    If I understand @Jordan Power correctly, one of the reasons we are betting with -EV is a loss-leader so we don't become easily readable. That directly contradicts other teaching that states we never make a -EV play.

    I agree with point three concerning "Monster Under the Bed Syndrome". That just means increased fold equity. The only reason I can see to bet this with improper pot odds is fold equity. IF we assume with have 30% Equity on the turn, what does our fold equity have to be to make this a good play?

    I'm still not sure how to determine when it's a good idea to check/raise when there is -EV.


  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    X/R the turn can be +EV.

    I just did some quick back of a napkin math.

    Let's use your example, and say V bets 5BB on the turn, and we raise to 25BB.

    If we x/r the turn, V folds, we scoop 20BB. +20BB
    If we x/r, V calls, and we miss the river... -65BB
    If we x/r, V calls, and we hit the river, bet pot, V folds... +65BB
    If we x/r, V calls, and we hit the river, bet pot, V calls... +195BB

    Factor in our equity, since we only get there 30% of the time, and this line still wins 55.75BB in the long run.

    Again, I'm admittedly doing this from the throne at work, so someone can correct me if I'm wrong.
  • ryon341ryon341 Red Chipper Posts: 89 ✭✭
    The calculations you are doing don't really pan out to +ev.

    Assume we have 30% EV without FE. That's true for the hand I posted, but in many cases will be considerably less.


    if we x/r, V calls, and we miss... (-65BB *.70) (we fail 70% of the time)
    if we x/r, V calls, and we hit ... ( +65BB*.30) (we hit 30% of the time)

    the scenario where we hit, bet pot AND V calls is even more rare.

    the scenario that can make this a profitable move is the first one - we x/r and he folds. It all comes down to the calculation of FE. It seems to me that you need a very high FE to make this a positive bet.
  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    Correct. You could break it down and say which size river bet when he hit gets us the most calls and wins the most BB over the long run. It doesn't have to be pot. I just picked easy numbers to do in my head.

    FE is a best-guess calculation. Is he ever folding a J on that Turn? Not likely. But what about the other stuff he floated with? 65s, 88, 66, 87s, etc. Say he folds 65% of the time to our x/r. Add it to the list of outcomes, change out the pot sized bet for a more value sized bet that could get more calls from non-believing Js, and I'd bet you'd come out with a +EV line.

    What I came up with is this:

    x/r turn, V folds 65%, +13BB
    x/r turn, V calls, miss 70% -45.5BB
    x/r turn, V calls, hit, V folds 80% +52BB
    x/r turn, V calls, hit, bet 30BB, V calls 20%, +25BB

    You can see we're still +EV.
  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    Immediately after posting that, I saw a problem with my math...
  • ryon341ryon341 Red Chipper Posts: 89 ✭✭
    edited February 8
    I am working the math, and I'm not following @Brews_and_Cards numbers, but I'm getting closer to understanding it.

    Assuming 30% equity, we will hit 30% of the time. After that, I will assume 75% of the time, we bet POT on the river and he folds - 25% we bet POT and he calls. These are just guesses, but I don't believe they would be incredibly wrong. If he is a reg, he would probably be able to read that we hit and would be more likely than not to fold to a river bet.

    x/r turn, v folds = Can't calculate without knowing FE

    x/r turn, v calls = pot is 65 BB

    Hit on the River, bet pot :: 65 BB (30% Equity = 30% of the time)
    villain calls - pot is 195BB * .075 :: EV = 14.625
    villain folds - pot is 65 BB * .225 :: EV = 14.625
    Total EV when it hits = 29.25

    Miss on the River, 65BB * 0.7 = -45.5 EV

    So, not counting FE, this is a -EV decision by 16.25 BB.


    So, the first scenario, "x/r turn, v folds" needs to produce greater than 16.25 BB. We need the villain to fold to a check/raise at least 25% of the time.

    My HUD stats show most REGs folding a lot more than that to a x/r, so this is clearly a +EV line including the fold equity.


    Is this making sense?




  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    @ryon341 I believe you've got it now.
  • ryon341ryon341 Red Chipper Posts: 89 ✭✭
    edited February 8
    Forget that.... It doesn't work. If you x/r and villain folds, you only get the flop pot, which is 15 bb. You can't possibly get enough FE to make this a profitable move using these numbers.

    I can't come up with a scenario where this is +EV.
  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    @ryon341 You get 20BB, you're forgetting his 5BB bet.
  • ryon341ryon341 Red Chipper Posts: 89 ✭✭
    edited February 8
    The 5 BB bet doesn't make that big of a difference....

    This bothered me a bit, so i built a spreadsheet to do the calculations. I plugged in variables for equity on the turn, x/r bet size, and frequency of calls and folds. Here's what i figured out....

    It appears the optimal bet sizing for a x/r is right around 1 full pot. Larger bets require larger fold frequency from Villain on the turn.

    With 30% equity, 1 pot x/r size, V must fold on turn about 30% of the time
    with 18% equity, 1 pot x/r size, V must fold on turn about 54% of the time

    if we increase the x/r to 25, as suggest....
    with 30% equity, villain must fold about 48% of the time
    with 18% equity, villain must fold about 65% of the time

    So my read on this is 18% equity is not enough to pull a check/raise on the turn unless you have someone that folds way too much.

    At 30% equity, it's a great move at about a full pot bet.

    I'm still tweaking, but these numbers look pretty solid.

    (that was a lot of work!)

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file