Enough value for a river raise?

rickmfrickmf Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
edited February 2019 in Online Poker Hands
Looking for thoughts on this hand..

iPoker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 136.6 BB (VPIP: 23.59, PFR: 17.90, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 1,551)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 21.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
CO: 188.9 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 20.09, 3Bet Preflop: 7.06, Hands: 232)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 379.8 BB (VPIP: 22.60, PFR: 17.92, 3Bet Preflop: 7.15, Hands: 13,368)
BB: 100.3 BB (VPIP: 60.53, PFR: 18.42, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 38)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:spade: J:spade:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 5:spade: T:heart: T:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets 4.1 BB, BB calls 4.1 BB

Turn: (14.7 BB, 2 players) Q:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets 10.3 BB, BB calls 10.3 BB

River: (35.3 BB, 2 players) 2:spade:

BB bets 16.7 BB, Hero .....

So I don't think i'm ever folding to this river bet, but is a raise justifiable here? 4 to the flush but I have the K, and also a paired board so there is chance of a boat. I'm thinking villian would do this with trips, but i'm not sure what other worse hands would call a raise, if any. But i also dont want to leave value on the table against a villian who is starting to appear to play a lot of hands.

If i do opt to raise, would then calling a re-raise/ jam be justifiable? Or is raise/ fold an actual line to take here? Doesn't seem like villian would be folding here, and wold probabaly only rr river with As (flush) or better.

Curious what line people would be taking in this situation. Open to any thoughts on the rest of the action as well. Thanks.


  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,385 -
    Does V ever bet-call the 9s? A rogue T?
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  • rickmfrickmf Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
    I dont have a ton of stats but i dont think they would lay down trips based on what i had seen.

    say the river is not a spade. How much does that change things? No longer scared of the As (wasn't really), and villian would be likely to call with more 2nd best hands.

    With a paired board, is a raise here still too risky? have had two A high flushed busted to boats recently
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,385 -
    I'm not familiar with this player pool, but V's line doesn't look like a T to me. I'd expect a check-raised turn. Non-spade river gives you a bit more incentive to raise, but I think in either scenario it's tough to get called by worse. That said, who knows what an opponent with VPIP>60 will view as reasonable.
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  • rickmfrickmf Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
    Villian was sticking around, so he must have a piece i was thinking (hoping he had a T after turn because i knew he would pay it off). River spade was not great, but if dude doesn't have a T (and no boat). then really all i'm scared of is the A spade?

    Without much fold equity, and questionable villian, seems like call is the least worst option here.

    dude showed up with QT, so this might explain his check/ call on the turn.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,385 -
    Aha yeah, no need for V to "protect" that.
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  • rickmfrickmf Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
    i think without the 4th spade i at least have some fold equity if i decide to raise the river, and trips is more likely to call with 3 to flush and not 4 on the board.

    looking it over as is it feels like one of those min-max situations. I will lose much more if I am wrong, than i will gain if I am right.

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