constructing a line with my range..looking at pocket tens here...help

jdljdl Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
Range from middle position (10 handed)
22+, 76s+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+,AQo+ (14.8%)
lets say i raise and the BTN calls.
So we are heads up to a flop of: 8c 7d 2h.
I am out of position, and i know that my line would be player dependent, but lets just say that we are up against a tuff Reg.
In this case i raise with 10s 10h. ( I am going though all hands in my range individually...at the moment),
If I use the 70% model, i know that this hand would be in my Cbet range. but what turn card would i be happy with? maybe an off suit 3 or 4?
My thoughts are to down bet the flop.
My concern with this line is what the Reg will think about this bet. so this needs to be taken into account on later streets.
I guess that on any non A, 6, or J turn, i was thinking about betting full pot the turn. this line might convince the Reg that i was charging his weaker holding a good price on a call on the flop, and throw him off the sent of the fact that i was trying not to over inflate the pot on the flop.
But what if he calls the turn? Check fold the river?
I could down bet the flop and turn, and then half pot the river and fold to a raise?
OOP i just feel that with a tuff opponent, I will be faced with a tuff decision at some point in this hand.
I feel if I check the flop, i am giving away power in this hand....
any ideas?

Comments

  • jdljdl Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    I know I really didn't discuss river cards and obviously we could go into more depth on the turn cards, but lets assume we have the safer turn and river cards. maybe we can expand this thought to the more scary turn and river cards to follow?
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    I don't think it has to be that tough of a hand, especially when you flop an overpair. First, give me his range. Then, look at flopzilla, and see how he hits the flop. Next, a "tuff" V may or may not fold his over cards to a c-bet or not. He rarely smashes this board. A 66%~ C-bet is in order IMO. I don't really care about sizing up a bit to punish him for floating his overs. He shouldn't have many raises here. If he does raise me, and I am at 100 BB's, I am calling and likely stacking off. I don't fold overs against an aggressive opponent who might be trying to bully me over a board that doesn't hit my perceived range very much. Just do some work in flopzilla and equilab and you will realize that even overcards aren't that scary on the turn, and are even better again V's will may try to bluff them. It starts to suck when V's who float start over betting rivers.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,289 -
    Quick note on the fine print of the 70% model.

    We ratchet back our %s when bad events occur. Two bad events occurred here. You got called by the button and must play the hand out of position; the board favors the caller's range.

    That's not to say we should check, just trying to move people away from getting too cookie-cutter with the continuance %s.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • jdljdl Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    thanks guys, i will think about it some more.
  • jdljdl Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    My main issue is I am not trying to get into a leveling war in this pot. I am trying to avoid a tuff spot. I am not interested in stacking off in a pot with an SPR of 12. that is a 4x BB raise preflop with 100 BB stacks.
    with this as a premise, i am trying to construct a line for an aggressive opponent who will call a flop bet with near 100% of his range.
    Lets assume range of 22% (minus QQ+, AQs+, AK)
    all of his weak hits would probably fold to a turn, second barrel...
    but what if he continues.
    bet the river? fold to a river raise? check call the river depending on the run out?

    This is where im at.
    I think i have it figured out. With an over pair, i think i have a three streets of value hand. So my line is going to be bet flop, bet turn, and check call river. this gives my opponent the opportunity to bet his top pair hands, and bet all his missed combo draws that missed, that he would either fold or raise to a river bet.
    Bet the flop. about half pot.
    Bet the turn (2/3 pot). If he folds on an over card (on the turn) then he had a weak hit... and if he calls, maybe he has an over card that he floated with. in this case check call the river.
    If he folds( on the turn) on a low card, maybe he floated the flop with high cards. If he calls on a low card, maybe he picked up equity, but im still ahead. On a safe river card, I should check call the river.
    On all Striating cards, bet the turn and fold to a raise.

    I guess there will be some river cards that I actually will fold to a river bet after i check.

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