Hero Call or Hero Fold After a Back-Raise?

Keith BrandtKeith Brandt Red Chipper Posts: 19 ✭✭
When you check-raise an aggressive opponent on the turn or river, you can find yourself with the grim choice between a hero call and a hero fold when he shoves over your check-raise.

Here's the situation I had:

In the first level of a satellite tournament we were all at about 100bb with our starting stacks of 5,000. There were six of us at the table for this hand. I had already classified the guy two seats to my right as a LAG.

Blinds were 25/50. In the SB I had two limpers including the LAG, and 97o in my hand. I decided to SB-complete for the 7:1 odds. BB checked. Pot 200.

The flop came 972 rainbow giving me the power hand I was playing the odds for. Being OOP in a four-way pot I made a pot-sized donk bet of 200. BB fold. Two calls. Pot 800.

The turn came an Ace that was suited to one of the flop cards. I saw this Ace as being the card I was hoping for, as it could improve one of the opponents to second-best hand. I decided I would check-raise Mr. LAG if he came out with a predictable bet. The check-raise line would probably fold out the other player, but I was trying to achieve the following goals:

- Win some additional chips from the seemingly inevitable bettor
- Avoid a multiway pot
- Establish a table captain image
- Shut down Mr. LAG

I checked. First opponent checked. Mr. LAG bet 600. I raised 2,000. First opponent folds. Mr. LAG shoves. I tank.

My first thought was: "He's got to know I have something better than a pair of Nines, and that it might even have improved with the turned Ace. Yet he was willing to bet his tournament life that he's got me beat."

He may have picked up a better 2P with A9, or even with A7 or A4. He may have slow-played a set on the flop. With the preflop limp and the call on the flop, I figured he capped his range. So given the shove, TT+, AQ+ was probably not there. Even though he was a LAG, I didn't have enough information to know if he was a maniac. I really didn't know if AJ, AT were something he would bet his tournament life on. The lower Ace holdings that weren't 2P seemed very unlikely.

At the time I didn't know what the equities were if he held AJ, AT. My gut told me it was close if that were the case. But I knew that if he weren't betting his tournament life on AJ, AT, that I was crushed. So I had the following two unhappy options:

- Hero call
- Hero fold

I opted to disgustedly fold, lick my wounds, and fight another day. I was out within 10 minutes when I got Aces cracked.

Flopzilla, like any computer tool, is garbage in = garbage out.

Here are screenshots of Flopzilla that give two ways of analyzing this situation given the report above. In the first screenshot I made the turned Ace offsuit, to show that even with no draw for Mr. LAG, I was crushed. In the other screenshot I weighted the possibility of AJ, AT at 50% because I simply didn't know one way or the other if these holdings were possible given the action and runout.

Which do you think is right? Are both garbage in resulting in garbage out?

Crushed 2P
8lg18f9tmg8v.png


Non-crushed 2P with AJ, AT weighted at 50%
ui9ls03akfz2.png



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