Ace magnets

jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited February 10 in Live Poker Hands
$1/2 home game with about $200 effective stacks. Villain is a reg who I don't think is super studied but does think reasonably well, and is probably a break even or possibly small winning player. Villain raises to $8 from MP and I reraise the button to $20 with black kings.

On a flop of :9S: :QD: :AD: , villain checks and I check. She should know I have an ace here often enough regardless of whether I check or bet. And I know she will not be folding any aces here, and will normally be folding hands like TT. I had been getting dealt AK ridiculously often this evening, sometimes betting on A/K flops and sometimes not. Once I checked it on the flop and got later value from a guy who bitched and moaned at showdown - loud enough for the table to hear - that he couldn't believe I'd check that on the flop. On another flop of AQx against the current villain, we both checked the flop and I paid off her set of queens somewhat on later streets.

The turn was :AS: and she bets $20.

She could be bluffing here, or semibluffing, or value betting, or betting thin with something like KQs. I think you could make an argument for folding, calling, or raising.

As recently as a year ago I had a big mental block against min raising. I couldn't shake the thought that the only people doing it were fish with the nuts. So I've tried to forget that and be more objective.

So raising to $40 here is an option.
-She will probably not fold an ace, but the probability that she got here with ATs and possibly even AJ and now folds is not zero since my actions so far are very consistent with AK/AQ/QQ.
-She will probably fold JJ, but I checked the flop, the second ace makes it less likely I have an ace, and I'm not that likely to have a Q here either, so the probability she'll call with a hand like JJ is not zero either. (I realize this point is somewhat inconsistent with the first, I'm just saying either are possible.)
-You could argue that it doesn't charge a semibluff draw enough as she's not making a mistake to call, but seeing as I don't think raising really big here is a very good play, it at least raises when you're a favorite in the hand. And another way to look at it is she's trying to fix her own price on a draw with the bet, and the net result is that she had to put in $40 against a pot of $80 which from that point of view is a very bad price without great implied odds (which I know she won't get but she might not know).
-You get to showdown the cheapest. If she has a hand like AJ/AT, she'll call now and probably check the river, whereas if I just call now she'll bet another $40 on the river so this showdown is cheaper. (Assuming you want a showdown and don't bomb the river.)
-This practically insures you can't get bluffed, for a reasonable price.

So I minraised. Thoughts?
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Comments

  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 197 ✭✭
    What does her PF raise from MP tell us about her range?

    Especially when holding kings, we should be ready to either c/f ace high flops or be ready to fire multiple barrels knowing full well were behind the entire way.

    That said, I feel a minraise is a tad weak. If I were V I'd be thinking "really?" especially if I had an ace. Perhaps a minraise is best if we actually hold the ace, but since we dont we need to raise larger for greater fold equity. This sizing also sets us up for a river shove, and we can be fairly confident the pot is ours at that point as Villain would most likely have shoved the turn raise if she held the ace.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    blindraise wrote: »
    Perhaps a minraise is best if we actually hold the ace, but since we dont we need to raise larger for greater fold equity.

    Well that doesn't seem to make any sense. If a minraise is best when we have an ace, then it should represent it pretty well whether we do or not.

  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 197 ✭✭
    @jeffnc

    I think you misunderstand me.

    To me personally a min-raise here represents something more along the lines of 2pair, or I'm on a draw and I dont want to keep chasing I want the pot now.

    Whereas a larger raise says I have the ace and I want the value I missed from the flop check.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    blindraise wrote: »
    Whereas a larger raise says I have the ace and I want the value I missed from the flop check.

    But I'm in position - why would I be worried about missing value on the flop? I could have just bet.

  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 197 ✭✭
    edited February 10
    Maybe youre concerned about your kicker on the flop and ace on the turn leads you to believe either board plays or theres no case ace to worry about? *or you wanna be trappy

    You even said yourself you checked TPTK on the flop earlier and got later value from the bitch and moaner,

    So why would you minraise the hand youre representing?
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    So as you say the situation is different on the turn, but none of those things imply that in hindsight I regret not betting the flop.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 197 ✭✭
    Exactly, and thats honestly not up to you to say, its what your opponent perceives/thinks that matters.

    The main point im trying to get at is you're delivering an either/or statement with the raise, so why not improve fold equity, reach that pain threshold?
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The reason would arguably be to save money when I'm wrong. A min raise often does have the connotation of extreme strength, especially in low stakes games. So the idea being considered is that you get a fair amount of strength shown for a budget price, and a savings when you're wrong and called or raised. Also, I don't necessarily want to reach the "pain threshold" if she's on a draw and make her play correctly. If I knew what she had and could specifically target a hand like AT or A9 then I could fine tune this.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 197 ✭✭
    Interesting, so youre playing it to safe to Ax holdings while simultaneously gambling to draws

    I think my player pool is a bit different, or my poker logic is flawed when it comes to min-raises; I usually associate them with weak bluffs and equity denial.

    Now I'm wondering- is saving $20 worth the reduction in FE?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭✭
    To me, it really depends on your 3bet range and - how your 3bet range is perceived - compared to what V could open-call pre. And how these react to the board.
    jeffnc wrote: »
    blindraise wrote: »
    Perhaps a minraise is best if we actually hold the ace, but since we dont we need to raise larger for greater fold equity.

    Well that doesn't seem to make any sense. If a minraise is best when we have an ace, then it should represent it pretty well whether we do or not.

    But can you / do you have anything else to raise in this spot than AX ? Does these hands like to used in a min-raise ?
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    blindraise wrote: »
    I think my player pool is a bit different, I usually associate them with weak bluffs and equity denial.

    It's possible.

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11
    Red wrote: »
    But can you / do you have anything else to raise in this spot than AX ? Does these hands like to used in a min-raise ?

    I'm pretty new to minraising, so of course I would have to add in AK, AQ, QQ, 99 types of hands with this line too sometimes. And dare I dream..... AA too.

  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 197 ✭✭
    Ran some math here, youre giving 5:1 on a min raise so she needs 16% equity to call.

    $20 more gives 4:1, or 20%

    $40 more 3:1, etc.

    That said youre actually pricing her in pretty well to draw, and as I mentioned earlier reducing FE.

    Just not a big fan of minraises, but thats just me..
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I explained this. While it's true, in reality she already semibluffed or blocked betted off $20, so in practice it's more like I bet $40 into $40 and she called getting 2:1. There are obviously pluses and minuses to this. And the whole point is I've never been a fan of minraises as explained, but there must be a use for them or else I doubt the pros would ever do it.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 197 ✭✭
    Correct me if im wrong but the pot is $100 after the raise, so she needs to call $20 to win $100 making it 5:1, no?

    I think minraises certainly have a use, but is a tool better left for deep stack play
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    But can you / do you have anything else to raise in this spot than AX ? Does these hands like to used in a min-raise ?

    I'm pretty new to minraising, so of course I would have to add in AK, AQ, QQ, 99 types of hands with this line too sometimes. And dare I dream..... AA too.

    These are all "value" bet. Where are your bluff combos - like KK ?
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    KK, JJ, TT, but there aren't a lot of bluffy hands, which is maybe another reason for not betting huge.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 773 ✭✭✭
    Looks like you are looking for the least expensive way to showdown ( I know I would be)

    I used to think the turn raise in this spot (min or higher) was a way to do this but have changed my ind. I prefer the call.

    I prefer to keep any bluffs in villains range

    I don't want to get 3bet and fold to a range that might have a random bluff in it

    On the river, when bet into, i just evaluate villain profile and bet size and decide whether to call or not.

    Also there are those time that villain checks river with worse like missed draw or lower pair but was afraid to bluff BECAUSE I just called the turn and they decided to give up figuring I had an Ace

    lastly, I do not think you stop AJ or AT from betting again all the time. I believe that the turn call can have the same effect roughly the same percentage of the time as a raise. So I am putting extra money in the pot when it might or might not work similar to if I just called (which also might or might not work) but I save the raise money

    IMO

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There is an awful lot of talk about balancing range and I get it, but how often does this specific spot happen, and even if it does, it's not like I'm playing these same players week in and week out, and even if I were they're usually not paying that much attention. I'm always opposed to trying to play like it's a $10/20 game against pros who have dozens and dozens of hours against me, when there are exploits aplenty to be, um, exploited.

    In this particular game, this spot has in fact never come up. So I'm not going to overthink how I'd balance it by the time it comes up for the 20th time.

    As to what the minraise is accomplishing, I think I laid out my thoughts pretty well, right or wrong.

    Back to the hand. She folded the turn. Let's say she called and the turn is a brick, and she checks to me. Now what?
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 197 ✭✭
    @jeffnc

    The point youre making is crucial, the fact is the good majority of the time a lot of us arent playing studied players. Our opponents arent noticing the subtleties we discuss, and our attempts to fine-tune subjects is often irrelevant.

    But this makes the questions youre asking a bit challenging; youre the only player here who's played this rec therefore youre the only player with information applicable to future decisions in this particular situation.

    But if I got my minraise called and the river is a brick, im either giving up or shoving, depending on opponent.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    blindraise wrote: »
    But this makes the questions youre asking a bit challenging; youre the only player here who's played this rec therefore youre the only player with information applicable

    To be honest, that's a problem I have with hand histories in general.

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    KK, JJ, TT, but there aren't a lot of bluffy hands, which is maybe another reason for not betting huge.

    Problem is, as pointed out, that min raising gives great odds for V to call. If you're bluffing, then you may lose FE.
    Also when you do have a great hand or a monster, do you really want to raise that little ? Why not 1.5x ? 2x ? If she has a value hand, don't you think you're losing money by min raising ?

    Also there is a difference between bad hands and bad hands to bluff with. KK is not great, because you block KQ (and esp. KsQs) and KsJs. Meaning either V is going very light to steal - and then I prefer to call with KK for SDV / bluff catcher - or with a very strong hand (mostly AX or combo draw with :DIAMOND: FD) who V is never going to stab/fold, esp. against a min raise (even ATs ?).

    So at the end, I can see a turn raise, but not with KK, and not a min raise.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Problem is, as pointed out, that min raising gives great odds for V to call. If you're bluffing, then you may lose FE.
    Also when you do have a great hand or a monster, do you really want to raise that little ? Why not 1.5x ? 2x ? If she has a value hand, don't you think you're losing money by min raising ?

    Those two ideas are inconsistent.

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    but if she knows you have a leak like checking AK on the flop

    This is a leak?

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 12
    So what you're saying is that basically you will never check this flop.

    However in practice she's never seen me check me check AK in a 3-bet pot. I thought you were talking about checking AK on and A high board in general.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I thought you were saying that ever checking AK on an A/K high flop is a leak. Apparently you're not.

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