Live hand 1/2 (300max) kqo Very Hard Spot

Bernard SilvaBernard Silva ✭✭Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
Hero Starts with 313 and villain covers hero. Hero has a Lag image and looks like he is raising 40+ percent although I am just catching cards. My stats for live poker are 20/17.
Villain is a MAWG around 50 with a beard.

Utg limps, UTG+1 folds I raise to 17 in utg+2 with :Kh :Qc button calls and the limper folds. Flop is :Ac :Th :5h and I bet 25 into 39 with a plan to double barrel on jx,heartx if villain calls the cbet. Villain calls and the turn is the :Jd. I bet 60 and villain calls. The river is the :8h I check and villain shoves 211 into the 209 pot giving me 1.99 on a call. My analysis on the river is villain never shoves ax hearts(he would bet 100-125) and a lot of naked flush draws fold to my 60 dollar bet on the turn. Also, kx of hearts are impossible. If I give villain a range of ato-ajo,ats-ajs (non hearts) kqs,kqo, qj/q9hearts j9hearts and 34hearts my equity is 69.35% according to flopzilla. Should I have folded on the river as an exploit in 1/2 even though my equity is over 2x what I need? Also if you agree I should call should I also call without a heart in my hand?

Comments

  • MichaelBMichaelB ✭✭✭ Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    edited February 19
    The sheer strength of your hand would compel me to call, but the :Kh is definitely the icing on the cake.

    The way the hand played out I'd wouldn't be surprised to see a number of holdings you're in front of, including :Ah x, and plenty of two pairs who weren't sure where they were at until you checked.

    Calling without the :Kh would come solely down to the read on got on the guy, but even then, I just don't think I could let that one go. If that makes me a station, oh well.
  • Bernard SilvaBernard Silva ✭✭ Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
    Thanks for the reply. In game, I sensed strength on the turn which usually isn't indicative of a flush draw and assisted in my river call.
  • Paul_KPaul_K ✭✭✭ DFWRed Chipper Posts: 330 ✭✭✭
    Call.... it helps that you are seen as LAG. Sometimes you'll run into the flush, those times will suck. But still so many more hands he bets here for value as you look a lot like AK/AQ that may not be able to find a fold. Good chance you'll see 2p with the Ah in his hand.
  • Paul_KPaul_K ✭✭✭ DFWRed Chipper Posts: 330 ✭✭✭
    Oh... looks like I said basically what @MichaelB said. Well, you can hear it twice then.

    I would also probably say that your cbet is a bit on the large side, if we should be cbetting at all. Live players are so inelastic that I think we don't gain any benefit from building a big pot with a gutshot. It's easy to say we're gonna barrel when we turn the nuts, but what about all the blanks that are much more likely to come?
  • JasanbornJasanborn ✭✭ Red Chipper Posts: 1 ✭✭
    Hi Michael,

    Interesting spot. I'm thinking along the same lines as what has been mentioned before. If we are folding here, what exactly are we calling with? Only flushes? To me, we are just way to far up in our range to be able to fold here, particularly with your mentioned table image. Just seems way too exploitable. Particularly when there are a number of hands that villain can be value betting on the river here.

    I'm curious what villain gave off on the turn that made you feel he was strong? In these spots, I am usually really paying attention to how quickly villain is calling. I wouldn't rely on anything, but potentially if villain is taking his time with the call, and gives the impression of strength, there are not too many hands villain can have that improve to a flush on the river. AJ hearts...maybe like Q9 hearts? Having the K of Hearts here is nice, but I guess at the end of the day I'm fine calling with my straights here, looking to potentially look at folding most two pairs/potentially set combos.
  • Mr. DontMr. Dont ✭✭✭ Red Chipper Posts: 370 ✭✭✭
    I would bet small, 50ish and fold if jammed. How often he bluffs or you have strong flush on this spot?
    I played $1/3 many years but no one really bluff shove AhX. If he has AhX, they will check back. I believe he most likely have strong flush here.
  • persuadeopersuadeo ✭✭✭✭✭ Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,115 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As OP you made the clear argument as to why this is a call by ranging him and examining your equity - folding is just exploiting yourself, not him.

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