Live Hand 1/2(300 max) 3 Bet Pot River Decision (sizing)

Bernard SilvaBernard Silva Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
Villain is an overweight MAWG(50-60 years) wearing gold bracelets and a gold necklace. He has only been at the table for 15 minutes and plays like a typical MAWG. Effective stack is 375.

3 Limps before hero, hero opens to 22 in the cutoff with :Ac:Jc and villain(button) 3 bets hero to 45 I call. The flop is is :3s:4d:Jh villain bets 40 and I call. The turn is the :4s and villain bets 50 I call again because if villain has qq+ he would bet a larger amount. River is the :Jd. I have the effective nuts and the pot is 279 and villain has 240 remaining. Should I bet the river or check to induce a bluff from ak? Also what bet sizing is optimal to target specifically ak?.


  • CoilerinoCoilerino Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    I think either checking or betting here is fine, however with the effective nuts here I might opt to value bet your hand here.

    For trying to find an optimal bet size, ask yourself how big of a bet would AK bet here. Is AK going to call a bet or rereaise in this spot at all?
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    edited February 2019
    I like a lead in this spot unless you have solid info that AK will barrel in this spot. Seems like a really decent spot to check behind AK and possibly win with ace high. As you pointed out, he didn't really look like he was trying to commit his stack with his small turn bet.

    And what you bet also depends on the opponent. From the little info I have on the guy, I think a lead of around $100-$150 is appropriate. An overpair's never folding for that amount, and I'd be worried that if I all of a sudden come out of my shell and pot the river there's a danger he would. Betting smaller keeps in all his bluff catchers too, like 99 or TT who don't want to believe.

    Basically, I'm not overly concerned with losing value from him turning 78s or KQ into a bluff on the river because MAWGs don't tend to 3bet those hands.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,396 ✭✭✭✭
    VThe turn is the :4s and villain bets 50 I call again because if villain has qq+ he would bet a larger amount.
    Remaining eff. stacks: 290$, pot : 180$.
    V bets 50$.

    Considering the very low bet size and the fact that, based on your observation, we can discount/discard QQ+, then why not c-r shove ?
    Also, not C-R shove only TPTK, but also hard value (43, 33, A4) as well as good draws (OESD, FD) and low PP with little SDV ?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Why would ak fire river?
  • Bernard SilvaBernard Silva Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
    In the hand I checked and lost value. Villain said he had queens (which is unlikely) but qq+ and ak are never betting river at 1/2, however this guy would call 100 100% of the time with qq+,ak.

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