10NL 6Max KK line check

epokertable.netepokertable.net Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
edited March 1 in Online Poker Hands
Hero on btn w/ :Kh :Ks ($10.50)
Relevant villains
sb ($11) TAG
bb ($12.20) LAGish (pushes action but not crazy)
CO($4.50) new to the table but seems very LPP

UTG limps,
CO Limps,
folded to me on BTN. I raise to .40.
SB calls,
BB calls ,
UTG folds,
CO calls.

Pot (1.7) heading to flop
Flop:
:Th :6h :4d
SB(10.60) checks,
bb(11.80) checks,
CO(4.10) checks,
I bet $1 (10.10)
SB calls ,
BB raises all in,
CO calls

What do I do???????

Comments

  • NYCRyNYCRy Red Chipper Posts: 336 ✭✭✭
    I would have went a little bigger preflop. Close but a fold on the flop I think
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 458 ✭✭✭
    Pre I would also have gone to at least 0.5. Good rule of thumb is 3BB + 1 per limper + 1 if OOP when you are facing limpers.

    Flop is a very tough spot. I'm inclined to think neither BB and CO necessarily have the nuts here based on your description. These multiway pots are hard to calculate so I would suggest using CREV (if you don't have it I could do it later for you).
  • King_KaneKing_Kane Bocas Del Toro, PanamaRed Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
    edited March 2
    LAG or not, if you don’t think he’s crazy then the check shove into 3 players seems super strong at those stack depths. I feel like best case scenario you’re flipping with his monster draws, and getting worse from there you’re <30% against his 2p and drawing nearly dead against his sets. Not to mention the caller in there stealing your equity. It sucks with the pocket kings, but I think folding all 1 pair hands is pretty standard given the action.
  • FutureStreetsFutureStreets Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
    edited March 3
    Quick intro: I just finished the Level 1 Core courses, and I’m going to try to analyze this hand using what I’ve learned.

    First thought on your question: fold. As King_Kane said, if you don’t think the LAG is crazy, then his move certainly seems strong. Look at it from his (the LAG’s) perspective: two players limped, then you raised small. (I thought the standard was slightly higher than what LeChiffre mentioned. I would have raised to .60: 5xBB for the first limper, +1BB per add’l limper.) You looked like you didn’t want to scare the limpers away. Then, on a Type 2 flop, you CB a little small (<60% pot; I would’ve preferred $1.20). The fact that you continued at all, when you had absolute position and the option to see a free turn, really narrowed your range down (in my mind) to overpairs, overcards with the flush draw, or a rare top pair or top set.

    And yet he shoved. In that spot, I’m content to fold and learn, especially after the LPP called. If LAG actually shoved with JJ (the only overpair that I can imagine him just calling with preflop), top pair, or a middling flush draw, I’d make a note of it and adjust my future calling range accordingly. But I think he’ll show up strong a lot, and you could find better spots to get your money in.

    First pass analysis: Mostly included above. All of your basic actions look right; it’s just that the PFR and CB both look small to me. One more little thing I’d add is that I think that your perceived image is important, as well as that of UTG. Even though UTG limp-folded, it’s important to know if (for instance) he was tricky/trappy or tilting. Those types of players are more likely to limp/reraise, which could have influenced SB or BB to flat your raise with big pairs, hoping to call an UTG shove.

    In-depth: because were talking about calling a shove, this is going to end up being a math-based problem. We need to guess at ranges for the LAG and the station, pit them against your hand, and then determine if the pot odds are good enough for a call. If they’re not then we don’t need to analyze any further; but if they are, then we may need to factor in the possibility that the TAG SB might call as well.

    PF: I’ll make up the LPP’s limp-calling range off the top of my head, and use a slightly looser version of the RCP LAG blind-vs-raise chart for BB’s call. That chart uses A5s-A2s, T9, and 87 as reraising hands for balance, but I’ll assume that a LAG at this level would just call with them. So...

    LAG: JJ-22, AQs-A2s, AQo, all suited BW, T9s-54s. (12.4%, not accounting for the missing :KH: :KS: that you hold.)

    bcwwnzpg8qkt.jpeg


    LPP: same, plus all Ax unsuited, all BW unsuited, and all remaining suited cards. That’s 44% of hands. (Hey, you said he was “very” LP!)

    f6vnx2nty94k.jpeg


    My question for you: what range do YOU put them on?

    Flop: Pot is $1.70. Effective stack is CO ($4.10), creating an SPR <3.

    Ranges after the actions taken:

    LAG:

    byw1gwfd69ha.jpeg


    LPP: Any set, JJ, any 2 pair, any top pair, and all 4-flushes that were in his PF range:

    inbce1uhzkr9.jpeg

    (EDIT: After posting, I noticed I left in a couple of 6x hands that didn’t fit my estimated range. They only add 0.1% equity to hero’s range at best.)

    Since this is an all-in situation we only need to calculate your actual hand’s value against these ranges... and it’s not good: you win 20% of the time.

    LAG has you covered, so I calculate the effective pot size as $17.90. You have to call off your remaining $9.10 to win it, making your pot odds less than 2-1. To be exact, you have to be able to win 33.7% of the time to justify a call. Put another way, your EV if you call is -$5.52. (You’re risking $9.10 to win $17.90 x 20% = $3.58. $3.58 -$9.10 = -$5.52.)

    If we broaden LAG’s flop range to include any possible Ahxh, QhJh, 9h8h and 8h7h, you’re barely able to call at 36%... but what if SB, still to act, sees all that money in the middle and decides to call too?

    Final analysis: fold, and hope the station wins.
  • FutureStreetsFutureStreets Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
    edited March 4
    LOL @ my own bad math! I totally screwed up the EV calculation... and apparently you can only edit a post within a 1-hour time frame. Let’s try this again:

    EV = (20% x 17.90) - (80% x $9.10)
    EV = $3.58 - $7.28

    EV = -$3.70

    So not as bad, but still very -EV. And using the correct calculation for the second scenario (broader LAG shoving range) gives an EV of just $.62. I still believe that the possibility of SB calling, and thereby stealing even more of your equity, almost certainly outweighs a 6.2 BB gain... but I’ll let you do the math on that! 😜
  • epokertable.netepokertable.net Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
    Thank you for the great feedback. Very informative. I think I agree with everything everyone said.

    I do agree that I think it was a -EV call. @King_Kane the point about stolen equity from the CO was something I hadn't thought of. Thank you for pointing that out.

    @FutureStreets I hope i never come across you on the tables. I agree with your analysis.

    A couple of questions, does having the :Kh make a difference of your call/fold analysis? I know its not the same as having the :Ah in flush draw removal, but it does remove some flush draws. So by that thinking you are probably up against a 2 pair plus hand and not a flush draw?

    Also does the top card being a heart (the :Th ) make a difference in your analysis? Same thinking as having the :KH: ? It removes some combo draws. Thus I'm putting the villain on a monster.

    Here is the twist. I wasn't the BTN w/ :Kh :Ks . I was the bb that pushed. I had been pushing the table around, in particular the BTN. I agree I didn't think he raised pre enough. On the wet flop I would have bet more than he did.

    I had :5h :4h. For the bottom pair and flush draw. I put the BTN on an air cbet or overpair. Of which I would have either been way ahead or slightly ahead (EV wise) and calling an all in would have been very difficult for him. I figured a set would have bet bigger to not risk a bad turn card.

    I didn't expect a call from the CO, so then I thought maybe I was up against a bigger flush draw and an overpair which would have been a disaster.

    Obviously the BTN made the call since I knew his hand. CO made a gutterball straight on the turn, I made the flush on the river and scooped it.

    Please let me know your thoughts on everything. Thanks!

  • FutureStreetsFutureStreets Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
    Hey @epokertable.net ,

    Sorry it’s taken me so long to respond. Life hasn’t been terribly conducive to anything poker related recently.
    @FutureStreets I hope i never come across you on the tables.

    That made my day when I read it, thank you! I will say this, though: all I was doing was putting my understanding of the first level of the Core into practice. It took a while to type it all out, but the result ( for me anyway) is that I was able to convert a belief—that the call was negative EV—into a fact, backed with proof. By understanding why it was true, I feel like I came away with a better understanding of poker. And I wouldn’t have been able to do that so systematically without working through those first Core lessons.

    Anyway, I enjoyed the hero/villain twist. To briefly answer your question about holding the :Ah , I thought it would make a difference but when I did the math it really didn’t make enough of a difference to change the scenario, especially when factoring in the possibility that the TAG might call.

    I’ll let you do the math on that… in the meantime, what I thought was much more interesting was 1. the fact that you (the REAL you, with :5h :4h ) decided to shove, and 2. how you perceived your image before you did so. Because I think you made a psychological misread of your button opponent, and might be able to save a lot of money by avoiding the same thing in the future.

    Back in your initial post, you stated that the BB (who we now know was you) was
    LAGish (pushes action but not crazy)
    . But then in your last post, you stated,
    I had been pushing the table around, in particular the BTN.
    Do you see the difference between those two perceptions? To me, there’s a big difference between “pushing the action“ and “pushing the table around.” And more importantly, the button with the overpair might think so, too—and so might other players at the table, who might want to pile in on more hands and hope you push too hard.

    If you thought there was a chance that the button felt “pushed around” by you, then shoving in this situation didn’t do you any favors. If anything, it forced the button into making the correct play, while increasing your variance. Here’s this poor guy getting pushed around, just waiting for a hand to bust you with... and when that hand comes, with a very favorable-looking flop, you oblige by shoving in your whole stack. I don’t think you had any fold equity at this point, so he was mostly going to fold hands that you beat, while calling with hands that beat you.

    That’s my take. I hope it makes sense, because I don’t have any more time to write! Good luck!

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