Too Little Aggression with a Flopped Set?

Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 357 ✭✭✭
Haven't posted a hand in a while; hoping the RCP community is running well and playing better.

Playing $1/$3 at the MGM National Harbor on Friday evening, Hero ($792) is dealt :6h: :6s: in the small blind. I'm about 3 hours into session.

MP ($~1.2K) opens to $18, what had been his standard open in the time I had been at the table with him. Pretty unknown V. I have seen him in the room a handful of times, but never played with him. I haven't seen any of his hands at showdown, but he's been moderately active.

HJ (~$40 [it's all in whites and in a pile, hard to tell haha]) and CO ($~200) call and I call as well.

Flop ($75): :6C: : :7h: :AH:

I check and MP bets $30. HJ and CO fold. Too often, I think, I would fall into the "raise and charge flush draw" mode, but the smaller size confused me a tad. V isn't even betting half pot here. If I had a flush draw on this board and wanted a semi bluff as the PFR, I would likely size up more toward 60% pot. The $30 bet here MW seems almost to me like a bet to see where one's at. If that's true, I don't want to inform V exactly where he is at by taking this to $100 is my thought.

Looking at it after the fact in Flopzilla, applying V a range of 22+, all broadways, all suited aces, 87s+, and J9, Q9, K9, he only has 6 combos currently ahead of me, and 15 combos between a flush draw and an OESD. That :Ah: drastically reduces his available flush draw combos. So that totals 21 out of 103 combos I think V would cbet with that either have me currently or could draw out on me.

(At the time of the hand, I suspected V was not cbetting as often as one perhaps should. He was fairly active preflop but his c-bet frequency seemed low. Granted, only about 90 minutes live - he had taken a dinner break - so nothing to take to the bank.) Hero calls, thinking that a raise is only going to allow V to play perfectly against me and fold out a ton of his range that I am way ahead of.

Turn ($135) :8C:

Not the safest of all cards, but not a horrendous card either IMO. It does complete his OESDs but he only had 4 combos of those to begin with so the majority of his range that would c-bet this flop does not benefit from this 8. V does decide to fire again, this time for a larger sizing. He bets $80, nearly 60% pot.

I think V is still firing sets here, he would fire a straight if he got here, but the majority of his range is two pair and top pair combos. Of the 90 combos, he would bet on the turn, I am only behind 10 of them. Hero elects to call.

River ($295): :KH:

So the flush draw gets there and obviously this is not hero's favorite card but I think if a flush draw is going to fill, the king of hearts is probably the best way for it to fill. It reduces the combos V has for a flush.

Hero checks and V fires $325.

This bet seems pretty polarizing to me. I don't see V doing this with a stronger Ax single pair holding. It seems unreasonable and as if they are turning something like AQ into a bluff. But perhaps A2-A9, these could be overbet here to dissuade AT+ from calling a river bet. Does this seem reasonable?

I don't think Hero's image is too loose (although 20 minutes prior hero made an absolutely asinine call on the river so it is possible V sees Hero as a station based on that and a few others hands hero has lost at showdown in this session).

I need to win this hand a little over 34% of the time to break even. Is this a clear call? Should I have turned up the aggression prior? Any thoughts and feedback appreciated.

Comments

  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 417 ✭✭✭
    On the flop you are worried about your opponent playing perfectly against you, but that would only really be the case if he exclusively folds worse and continues with better. That surely isn't the case, and even though you shrink his c-betting range when you raise you are only scared of set over set. I think in this spot we definitely want to have a raising range. We can rep all two pairs and 66 and 77. You're not raising to "charge draws" though. You're raising to get value from hands which could call you down for 3 streets (and possibly stacks) like AK. It's the concept of targeted range. Ed Miller has done a video on this in the CORE lesson on streets of value I think, and surely must be somewhere else on RCP too. Also, while it's good you are paying attention to c-bet sizing, I think you're looking a bit too much into it. I don't think it's inconceivable for villain to c-bet that sizing with AK. Check-raise -- bet -- bet would be my line here.

    As played, check-raise turn.

    Indeed the river bet is polarizing but I seriously doubt villain would turn a weak Ax into a bluff. They might not even have double barreled those hands. I don't think AK bets this large on the river, since you are not supposed to be really strong here. If I were in villain's shoes I would put you mostly on Ax and flushes so betting full pot doesn't really make sense expecting a lot of Ax to fold. So I think villain mostly has a flush himself even though there aren't that many combos of those. It's possible it's a bluff, but not too many come to mind. Think it's a fold but we shouldn't be in this situation to begin with.
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 186 ✭✭
    LeChiffre wrote: »
    Check-raise -- bet -- bet would be my line here.

    We paid $18 to see a flop. We need to monetize our set into $360 or so to justify our PF play. And in this hand we can perhaps double that.

    Hit it. Hard. Pray V has what's needed to get it in.



  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 357 ✭✭✭
    That's a good consideration @In The Dark
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,684 -
    edited March 3
    You have an SPR of 10, and bottom set OOP. If you just flat the flop to check the turn, Villain can easily check back turn and you will not get it in.

    While you may not fear the flush or straights, much of the deck can kill your action going forward.

    These are two mechanisms by which you don't get paid.

    Villain could easily be "playing Priceline" with a draw (where he names his own price...)

    I see now a third reason to XR flop.

    So far the reason to flat is "not to scare him off" but the deck can easily do that too.

    A healthy XR would start with ~$130 in pot before the raise and $730 effective. A pot sized raise would leave $600 behind and a called pot of $400.

    Would you PSB as XR with things other than a set? I can think of nut flushed, combo draws that would.

    XR a decent amount and commit on flop if he comes alive. Very often the good draws will just get it in OTF. The TPTK type hands will flat flop and you fear a lot less on turn vs those. Plan a committing turn bet.
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  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 190 ✭✭✭
    You absolutely have to X-raise this flop. V has tons of FD and Ax that will continue. On wet boards like this, slow-playing just lowers your EV so so so much when you are OOP. turn is going to check behind super often. Slow playing here is disastrously lowering your EV.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,545 ✭✭✭✭✭
    When a villain raises and you hold 66, isn't your dream flop basically A6x? And if so, why?
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 155 ✭✭
    edited March 6
    I raised AQ the other day and caught a :As :7d :3d flop. It was multiway and I led $45 into $100. A guy raised to $150 and I didn't even consider folding. That's why you should have raised the flop.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,545 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 8
    Similarities to this hand (as you said yourself, "It seems unreasonable and as if they are turning something like AQ into a bluff.")

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