ICM Bubble

uglytunauglytuna Red Chipper Posts: 102 ✭✭
edited March 3 in Tournament Poker Hands
Blinds 6K/12K

Hero 155K
Villain 220K

5 players left.

Prizes:
1st $10k
2nd $3k
3rd $1800
4th $1200

Stone cold bubble.

Villain opens 30k and Hero shoves button with 66. All players been active.

SB and BB cover both. Hero is shortest stack.

Should hero be shoving or folding?

Comments

  • BigFarmBigFarm MontrealRed Chipper Posts: 45 ✭✭
    What are the other stacks at the table? Is hero the shortest stack?
    Also that's a huge prize jump from 2nd to first.
  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    Fold. We're short stacked, and it sucks to fold a PP, but he's already said he has a strong hand with his open. Which means we're flipping at best, and possibly crushed. I'd rather wait for a better holding for $1200.

  • MnpokerMnpoker Red Chipper Posts: 95 ✭✭
    Is your goal to win or to cash. If you want to cash it is a fold if you want to win and don’t care about a min cash then it is a shove. You are at just under 13 BB so you are correct in that it is a shove or fold and no calling allowed. Villains raise of 2.5 x is not very telling (unless they have a history of only raising big pockets) I peryhave stopped caring about cashing and focus on winning so I would be shoving
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭✭
    Really need more info here. Hero is the short stack, but what's the next closest? Is it Villain?
  • uglytunauglytuna Red Chipper Posts: 102 ✭✭
    Hero is the shortest stack. BB and SB are deep.

    Hero does not care about a min cash was playing to get a stack.

    Villain is capable making a tight fold.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭✭
    uglytuna wrote: »
    Hero is the shortest stack. BB and SB are deep.

    Hero does not care about a min cash was playing to get a stack.

    Villain is capable making a tight fold.

    I believe at this point, you've answered the question yourself.
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,739 -
    edited March 3
    This kind of question will be very sesnsitive to your mental model of Villain.

    Ignoring the blinds have KK+ tax....

    Consider these:

    * The fold % of OR
    * Equity when called

    Are the factors that matter.

    Fold % could be anything

    Equity when called is likely in 35%-45% with 45% being wildly optimistic answer. Further, the more optimistic you make this equity, the more it costs you in Fold %. You much prefer fold %.

    You are at a point where your 3-bet fold equity is rapidly diminishing. The stone bubble is the only thing helping here. Again, this will be very dependant on mental model of Villain.

    Your opportunity cost is folding and finding a first in ship spot.

    Overall, I fold. I think shipping is a little worse than a coinflip, has huge variance for an edge that could be completely illusionary.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • bmat66bmat66 Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    I agree with Doug. Especially considering the blinds are deeper. In light of your update, stating you don't care about min cash, then shipping is a valid but much riskier option.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,013 -
    uglytuna wrote: »
    Hero is the shortest stack. BB and SB are deep.

    Hero does not care about a min cash was playing to get a stack.

    Villain is capable making a tight fold.

    I don't understand how you can not care about a min cash? I guess if it's important to you to get a trophy or something it's fine, but what we're trying to do in these spots is maximize our EV.

    Also why aren't there any antes? What was the buy-in?

    If you think your FE is low here, shoving is ICM suicide.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • uglytunauglytuna Red Chipper Posts: 102 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    uglytuna wrote: »
    Hero is the shortest stack. BB and SB are deep.

    Hero does not care about a min cash was playing to get a stack.

    Villain is capable making a tight fold.

    I don't understand how you can not care about a min cash? I guess if it's important to you to get a trophy or something it's fine, but what we're trying to do in these spots is maximize our EV.

    Also, why aren't there any antes? What was the buy-in?

    If you think your FE is low here, shoving is ICM suicide.

    There are antes, should have been posted.

    Not caring to min cash is a bit of an understatement. My object was to win the tournament. Not looking to get into the money, rather willing to take a high variance spot which would help get me first place money.

    I remember Doug Polk once said regarding tournaments, In order to win you must be prepared to die. I kind of live by that mantra.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,013 -
    edited March 11
    uglytuna wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    uglytuna wrote: »
    Hero is the shortest stack. BB and SB are deep.

    Hero does not care about a min cash was playing to get a stack.

    Villain is capable making a tight fold.

    I don't understand how you can not care about a min cash? I guess if it's important to you to get a trophy or something it's fine, but what we're trying to do in these spots is maximize our EV.

    Also, why aren't there any antes? What was the buy-in?

    If you think your FE is low here, shoving is ICM suicide.

    There are antes, should have been posted.

    Not caring to min cash is a bit of an understatement. My object was to win the tournament. Not looking to get into the money, rather willing to take a high variance spot which would help get me first place money.

    I remember Doug Polk once said regarding tournaments, In order to win you must be prepared to die. I kind of live by that mantra.

    Sure, it's just pretty much meaningless on this particular bubble. This is a math problem that HRC can solve, not something that should be driven by a catch-phrase.

    Incidentally, I believe the quote is more accurately attributed to the late Amir Vahedi.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,013 -
    Actually, let me try and rephrase that since my last comment isn't particularly helpful.

    Obviously how you approach these spots is 100% up to you, so that if taking 1st is your goal it's conceivable that rolling the dice in a -EV spot might be a reasonable play.

    However, part of the value of these threads is that they allow us to explore the "best" play in interesting spots. My sense is that most forum members look for advice that maximizes their EV and thus equate the best play with whatever best serves that goal. Thus my advice to fold here represents what I think is the most +EV play. With the full distribution of stacks and ante size, I'd be happy to calculate that explicitly.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • uglytunauglytuna Red Chipper Posts: 102 ✭✭
    Hey Kat,

    First I like to thank you for the time and grateful for your advice and thoughts.

    This play surely is classified as a -Ev. However, I'm trying to find a spot where I had equity close to a 50-50 spot. With my FE diminishing, shipping this spot felt I can maximize what every little FE I do have. With the blinds about to go up, FE would be no existent. Waiting for the spot where I can raise first in was not happening. Maybe tilting for that spot has come into play. Maybe shipping 66 vs a 3B jam with little FE is -EV.

    With that said, I am not a player that can sit here waiting for a high equity hand or others to battle and hope for a bust out.

    I think my shove here is pretty close.

    Sometimes in tournaments, I believe its good to have 40% equity then be blinded out. Maybe I am wrong.
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,739 -
    edited March 13
    uglytuna wrote: »
    Hey Kat,

    With my FE diminishing, shipping this spot felt I can maximize what every little FE I do have. With the blinds about to go up, FE would be no existent. Waiting for the spot where I can raise first in was not happening.

    If you think you have FE with a 3-b shove, then even in the next level with that same stack you will have FE for a first in shove. I would argue more because the raiser has announced they have a hand when you 3-b shove, but when you first in shove it is still very reasonable that no one has anything.

    Check the equity of 72o as an UTG shove versus various ranges.

    With 4 people left you get and a 20% calling range (assume you get only one caller or none) you chance of taking it down is 0.8^4 or 41%.

    Your equity against this is 27%.

    jzavq1lc8am1.png

    so if there is 2.5BB in the pot and 13BB in your stack

    2.5 BB * 0.41 = 1.02BB in "free shove equity"
    (13+13+2.5)BB * 0.59 * 0.27 = 4.54BB in "suckout equity"
    -13 BB * 0.59 * 0.73 = -5.60BB in "calling in losing"

    This is -0.04 EV move with a bad hand.

    What happens if you have Q7o? Now you have 33% equity.

    What if you have one person fold and now you get through three 80% ranges 51% of the time.

    What if you have a more reasonable hand and one folder at same time?

    2.5 BB * 0.51 = 1.28BB in "free shove equity"
    (13+13+2.5)BB * 0.49 * 0.32 = 4.47BB in "suckout equity"
    -13 BB * 0.49 * 0.68 = -4.33BB in "calling in losing"
    This is a +1.42 EV move with the average hand.

    So, play with these numbers and I think you can see that waiting for FI shove equity can have serious merit.







    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • uglytunauglytuna Red Chipper Posts: 102 ✭✭

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