2/5 SB vs BB - missed value with set?

cxy123cxy123 Red Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
I was away from the table, This is my first hand and I am in the BB and SB is a new player.

Hero - mawg, 550 stack
SB - mawg, ~750 stack (I have no idea how he got there)

Folds around
SB - Opens to $18
BB - Hero has 9d9h. I consider 3 betting here but I am in position, I dont know how aggressive SB is going to be and decided to take a flop.

Range - Idk. I think he might limp a lot or offer to chop but neither of those happens. So lets go with all PP, lots or all Broadways, suited As and maybe some SCs. But this is mostly a guess. I dont see a lot of 82 hands trying to steal a blind here so I am weighting him to high card value types of hands mostly.

$36 FLOP - Ah9c2d
SB - checks. This surprised me. I am thinking at this point he has paint mostly, some PP still and would have bet an A.
Hero - I thought I bet 1/2 pot but it was $16. I think bigger is better but definitely wanted calls obv.
SB - Calls.

$68 Turn - Kh so board is Ah 9c 2d Kh
SB leads for $45
BB - mandatory raise right? Hero calls. I honestly was trying to think if V would do with the KK. I think this is where the MUBS started kicking in.

$158 River - Tc so final board is Ah 9c 2d Kh Tc
SB leads for $125
BB - calls.

My thought was what is this guy doing? There are not a lot of pure bluffs here but is there a weak A like A8 doing this. I wasn't sure what he is betting at all for value that I beat but AK-AT. I didnt think A8 decided to get value from a weaker A or K at this point. Other than AK and maybe AT, am I getting called by worse if I raise the river. I think V can have all the AA, KK and QJ combos - 22 combos. V would call with AK and AT for 18 combos.

In game frankly I thought only AK would call and didnt even see AT in his range here.

What am I missing? Any comments appreciated.

Comments

  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    edited March 5
    You're right, the turn is a mandatory raise. You get calls from A2, A9+, K9, K2, and potentially all in vs combo draws and 22. Sure you also get jammed by AA and KK, but that's what bankrolls are for.

    Yeah you lose A8 and under + Kx, but how much extra value were you really getting from those hands anyway.

    As played though, looking at that board, there are plenty of two pair combos still in his range, A9, A2, AK, AT, K9, KT, T9, plus 22.

    If you look at this from his perspective, you made a small bet on the flop when checked to, then just called the turn, he could so easily have you on a pair + busted draw type hand and simply be betting any of the hands you crush for value. So yeah, keeping in mind that he's potentially underrepped his hands here, I think you may be underestimating the entire situation if you think there are only 18 combos he can call a raise with here.

    Hopefully one of the geniuses on here will be able to run the numbers for you as to whether a raise is profitable.
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    Oh, and I probably 3bet pre here too, but maybe that's just me.
  • cxy123cxy123 Red Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
    Only 3 A9 combos left. A9/A2 I would severely discount V betting that on turn and river but not on the flop. I don't think flopped 2p check/calls flop then leads turn on K with any frequency. V isnt suddenly going for value now with those hands by leading. K9 probably makes more sense as V is now betting his hand but again 3 combos as I have 99 in my hand. Also same reason I don't think he has KT or TT here like ever. That is why I discount those pretty heavily wrt to river.

    I agree that K9 should be in his river range.
  • cxy123cxy123 Red Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
    And thanks for your comments.

    I think 3b pre or calling his fine. I think there is an argument for both. Do you think it is a small or big mistake?
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    I don't think calling pre is a mistake, I just think you make more long run with a 3bet here.

    Yeah, I was going to write about the reduced number of 9x combos in his range, but I have a tendency to go on as it is.

    One thing I will say is that I do sometimes get burned when I assume a player's line will 'make sense' according to how I play, so I wouldn't discount all those unlikelier 2 pair hands, just perhaps give them less weight. Who knows? He may be trying to 'trap' on the flop, but the turn brings a flush draw and now all of a sudden he's scared of getting run down. Not saying that's likely, just not impossible. Any two pair in a heads up pot between the blinds is a very strong hand.

    Full disclosure: Just the other week I lost when a guy checked his top & bottom two pair to me, then came out of his shell the turn (when I made a smaller two pair, lol) AND I also had a very similar hand to yours, except I only had to worry about J9, and there were likewise fewer hands that could call, (just sets and one 2pair). I raised with 2nd top set and got stacked by J9.

    I don't have a PC and none of those equity apps run on Macs (that I know of), so I can't solve the hand with regards to whether a call or raise is better for the river, but I'd still be interested in seeing someone else's opinion.
  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 251 ✭✭✭
    edited March 5
    3betting this pre should probably be your main line, but flatting 10-20% is probably fine.

    Turn is a good spot to raise, since you don't block a lot of Ax and Kx hands that would have to call a raise.

    River: Unless the guy is a super nit, I think you have to raise here. He is going to have to call much wider than sets and AK and AT, especially since this was not 3bet preflop. K2s, K9, A9, A2, 22 all have to call here (idk which of those combos take this weird line, but there's gotta be more than the no. of combos that beat you that get here this way.)
  • cxy123cxy123 Red Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
    Thanks. And yeah - i kind of agree which is why I was not happy with the result.

    fwiw V showed up with AT
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    Ouch, yeah I get why you wanted to post the hand. I hate leaving money on the table maybe worse than I hate losing.

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