Calculating my EV for an all-in call

Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭
I have been told that I am way too aggro, so I am trying to reign it in. I might be getting carried away with that though. Here is a hand I had online yesterday. At the point in question, I could call all-in for my remaining \$6.29, or I could fold. (You may disagree with my action taken earlier - e.g., raising with QJo. But that is not what my question is about). Here is the hand.

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - \$0.05/\$0.10 - 9 players
Replay this hand on Pokeit

UTG: \$11.40 (114 bb)
UTG+1: \$10.45 (105 bb)
MP: \$4.52 (45 bb)
MP+1: \$16.98 (170 bb)
LP: \$16.21 (162 bb)
CO: \$7.00 (70 bb)
BU (Hero): \$9.78 (98 bb)
SB: \$3.90 (39 bb)
BB: \$10.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: (\$0.15) Hero is BTN with J:club: Q:spade:
4 players fold, LP raises to \$0.30, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets to \$0.60, 1 fold, BB calls \$0.50, LP calls \$0.30

BB checks, LP bets \$1, Hero raises to \$2.89, BB folds, LP raises to \$15.61 (all-in)

Tell me if my math is right on this. I think I am probably behind, but it is POSSIBLE that villain is on a draw. I would have to call \$6.29 to win the \$13.92 that is in there right now (after I have already put some in and now he has raised all-in). My EV for calling is therefore:

+13.92 * (probability of winning) - 6.29 * (probability of losing)

a) Do you think that a reasonable range for villain might be: any KT (offsuit or suited), T8-suited (probably would not raise and call pre-flop with T8-off), JJ, TT, 99, QT, JT, T9, AT-spades, A8-spades, AK-spades (41 combos). So this range gives him made straights or sets or big draws (e.g. flush and straight draw).

Against the above range, Equilab gives my equity with 2-pair (QJo) as 39%. (He might be on a draw, or I might hit my full-house or backdoor flush.)

So my EV is: 13.92 * (.39) - 6.29 * (.61) = \$1.59

Do you agree. So should I have called or folded. It all depends on the range we give Villain. If we are positive that Villain will not make that move with anything other than made straights or sets, then Equilab gives my equity at only 21% (I could make my full-house or backdoor flush). In which case, my EV (if my math is right) is:

EV = 13.92 * (.21) - 6.29 *(.79) = -\$2.05

• RCP Coach Posts: 1,750 -
I think the pot size of 13.92 is wrong. 1.85+2.89+6.29 = 11.03 This makes calling even worse than you thought. \$0.46 in the rosy situation, -2.65 in the second.
• A min raise on the button will get you exactly this kind of bloated pot with no fold equity
• QJo does not have blockers nor equity. Look at the graphic to see the range where you are 50/50 vs his calls (ignoring times he rips with QQ+ for simplicity).

There are two reasons to bet/raise:

This is not to "Make the pot bigger in case you win." because you have bad equity when called and you always get called.

This is not to "Deny equity" since they won't fold for that price.

This hand starts with a dubious holding. We spoke in coaching that the Miller ranges were likely the loosest you can play. This hand is not even in those.

So we have started the hand with a bloated 3-way pot with a hand that is a pretty standard fold.

You got the pot size wrong, but the formula is right. As you see, the big question is his ripping range and the EV is highly dependent on that.

It is hard to say what to do on the flop. You hate to see this re-raise, the ranges are ill-defined because of the anemic PF3B and tiny flop raise by you.

This is a board that is won by straights and flushes. You are going to be fading a lot of them. You might easily already be near dead to sets and straights. Combo draws with pairs and flush draws and straight draws abound. Your equity on the coordinated board is very dependent on Villain ranges which are wide open and ill-defined.

Mostly, I try not to be in this kind of situation by playing different pre.

Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
Author Poker Plays You Can Use
Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
• Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭
Thank you, Doug, for this detailed response. Yes, I thought you (and perhaps others) might hate the preflop raise with QJo. I even mentioned that in the question. But as played (okay, as played sucked, but here we are...): Are you sure that the pot size of 13.92 is wrong.

On the flop, there is 1.85 in. Now, at the point where I have to decide whether to call or fold the remaining 6.29, I had already put in an additional 2.89. Villain then raised that all-in. So isnt the pot:

1.85 + 2.89 (mine, already in there) + 2.89 (his) + 6.29 (his raise) = 13.92

I liked your Ed Miller loose chart, showing that even with this loose chart, the QJo pre-flop is now a fold. Not a raise, not even a call. Eek! Not even a call! On the button. Okay, okay, I have to get better pre-flop ranges, for sure.

• Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭
A funny note, guess what. According to my Poker Tracker online stats, I am making money in EP and MP, and losing money in CO and BTN. That is funny because CO and BTN should be where you make money!

But my EP and MP ranges are much, much tighter and better defined. So even if I feel resistant to listening to my own coach about what hands to play pre-flop, I think stats like that are pretty hard to ignore. I will start tightening up my CO and BTN ranges more, or at least think more about robust equity (so QJs would be okay). I had already started tightening up these positions, if you can believe it, after seeing that I raised with QJo - this was the already tightening it up version. But I will tighten it up more.
• RCP Coach Posts: 1,750 -
I likely did get pot size wrong. Either way,fold pre .
Your insight about losing with loose ranges in LP is a good revelation. This will serve you well.
Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
Author Poker Plays You Can Use
Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
• Posts: 2,021 -
Yup, this is why we study our databases. Back in the online LHE days I discovered I had a lovely monotonically increasing bb/100 from UTG through CO, then a huge crash on the button. Opening too wide. Simples.
Moderation In Moderation
• Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭
That's funny, GameKat. Same as what my stats currently show. It is going to be very, very hard to fold QJo on the button, though, in best position at the table. (I'd fold QJo, even KQo, in EP without even thinking twice.) But Doug may have to bop me on the head a few times to make me do it on the button, as it seems very wimpy.
• RCP Coach Posts: 1,750 -
Your opponent's will do the bopping.
Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
Author Poker Plays You Can Use
Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks