frequency for AKo shove pre-flop?

TonyTwoCheeksTonyTwoCheeks Red Chipper Posts: 17 ✭✭
I played a home game last night. It can be an action-heavy game at times. $1-$1 with a winnable $5 straddle for the button. If the straddle is not in play then usually the button plays it anyway. I did well enough and made $150 for the night but the night could have way better with one hand.

SB stack: $195
HJ (Hero) stack: $400
BTN stack: $50

*** PRE-FLOP ***
BTN: straddles $5
Small Blind: calls
UTG+1: calls
HJ (Hero): raises to $30 with :Ad :Kc
BTN: calls $30
Small Blind: raises to $75
HJ (Hero): calls
I believed he had a good hand (JJ+) and was very suspicious of the call-raise. Villian gets sneaky with his plays which actually hurts him in long run (fancy play syndrome).
I changed my decision six times in the span of 1 minute. Call, fold, shove, call, shove....I finally chose to call.
BTN: calls
Main Pot: $156
Side Pot: $50

Equilab Analysis
SB: 45% TT+,AQs+,KQs,AKo
HJ: 33% AKo
BTN: 22% 99-88,ATs-A5s,KJs-KTs,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QJo

This is where BTN (80+ year-old OMC) throws over his hand :As :6c

*** FLOP *** :4d :4c :5s
SB: shoves for $120
HJ: folds
Seeing one of my outs dead really upset me and I folded.

Equilab Analysis after A6o card removal
SB: 60% TT+,AQs+,KQs,AKo
HJ: 28% AKo

SB shows :Qd :Qh

*** RUNOUT *** :4d :4c :5s :Td :Ks
King hits the river and it burns. I can't help but think about the pre-flop shove.
So the question is...
With what frequency should this be a pre-flop shove versus flat?

The second time I considered shove I could see the debate playing out in my head...
Logic: "I really think we're supposed to shove here."
Prudence: "Hold on cowboy. Why don't we see a flop first?"


  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    With the struddle on, your boy is sitting on a 40BB stack. You block AA and KK, just get it in pre every time. I don't like a call here with AK as you'll be forced to fold too much when he inevitably bets the flop. What else is in your calling range here?
  • OvermindDistOvermindDist Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
    I would play aggressively on AKo anytime
  • TonyTwoCheeksTonyTwoCheeks Red Chipper Posts: 17 ✭✭
    Some more food for thought....provided I did this correctly.
    If you shove pre-flop with the ranges I laid out
    Lose $195 67% of the time = -$131
    Win $245 33% of the time = +$81
    Shoving seems like a -EV scenario.

    If you call, you can; 1. lose $75, 2. Win $245 if you can get V1 to call, 3. Win $131 if V1 folds.

    Call with 50:50 chance of stack being played
    Lose $75 67% of the time = -$50
    Win $245 16% of the time = +$37
    Win $131 17% of the time = +$22
    Calling with 50:50 chance seems +EV

    I ran several scenarios and it seems that the breakeven point for +EV is 15% chance that stacks will be played.
    Lose $75 67% of the time = -$50
    Win $245 5% of the time = +$13
    Win $131 28% of the time = +$37
    Calling with 15:85 chance seems EV neutral

    Did I run those calcs correctly?
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 302 ✭✭✭
    Agree w/ @MichaelB... at 100bb you can flat the 3b in position and play post.

    Did you have any thoughts or consideration on his sizing?
  • TonyTwoCheeksTonyTwoCheeks Red Chipper Posts: 17 ✭✭
    Yes. The bet size was one where the player either doesn’t know what they’re doing and made it to small or he wants a call. Villian knows what he’s doing. As I stated before I figured him for a made hand (JJ+). Turns out he had QQ. Folding seemed wrong even if behind. Raising when I thought I was behind seemed to aggressive. He wasn’t going to fold. So either I gamble with $195 to see five cards or $75 to see three cards. I chose the cheaper of the two options. Missed the flop as I would 67% of the time and gave up. As it turned out, five cards would have done the trick. Hindsight is 20/20.

    If shoving is correct, why? Because if I did the math right, it doesn’t seem so.

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