Objective trigger to take $2/5 shot?

FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 30 ✭✭
edited March 15 in Live Poker Hands
The two shots I've taken at $2/$5 live NLHE resulted in 2 buys of $1000 gone. Last shot was about a month or so ago. Since then I have played about 35 hours at $1/3 for $1245 profit.

Background Info that may be helpful:
- I am recreational
- I have a good career with good pay. I could reasonably afford to play $5/10 NLHE. My wife begs to differ!
- I do not want to get wrecked at higher stakes since I do not think my skills are ready for the ultimate goal of $5/10
- Although I logically know money is fungible, I use the cognitive bias of mental accounting and only set a very small amount of my income to poker. I mentally set aside a $5000 stop loss for the year.

I would value your insight. Ultimately, I just love studying and playing the game and the money is just the "score". If I have to stay at $1/$3 that's fine. I may not be good enough for $2/5 yet.

If you were in my shoes, what would be your trigger to take your next shot?

Comments

  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 139 ✭✭
    edited March 15
    Back when I was playing professionally I'd sometimes get a question like this from friends or the odd player at a table, and I always started with the same response. What's your bankroll like?

    9 times out of 10, I'd eventually tease out that they don't actually have a dedicated poker bankroll. Or sometimes they did have x number of buyins set aside, but not always. That's pretty much all of it right there.

    Most people can comfortably play $1/2 and $1/3 without a roll and a decent wage. But if you do that, rest assured, you'll be stuck at those stakes forever.

    Even with a good job and a stop loss (assuming you stick to it), the variance at $2/5+ can easily run into the thousands and thousands of dollars, and it can become difficult to justify dropping your weekly salary on a night of poker, especially if it happens a few weeks in a row. Importantly, odds are you're not going to be playing how you need to play to crush those stakes if you're dipping into your savings account for your buyins. And as you pointed out, your goal isn't just to make some money, but to properly beat the game.

    So, what's your dedicated roll like?

    For the sake of transparency, at the moment I'm currently rolled for 20 buyins at my current stake ($1/3) and plan on starting to take shots at $2/5 when I get back up to 24 buyins for that game.

    My suggestion is you set a similar trigger based on the number of buyins you have and your personal tolerance for losing them.

  • FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 30 ✭✭
    My dedicated bankroll right now is $5000. Perhaps running it up to $10000 should be my trigger to take the shot again.

    If I am being honest, the money at risk for $1/3 or $2/5 would not really phase me even with a downswing. Like I said, I make a good salary so it doesn't move the needle much in the grand scheme of my life. I won't be dipping into any saving thankfully. However, out of principle I do not want to be shark bait! Just because I can afford to play in a certain game, does not mean I should. I think that I need to demonstrate that I am crushing $1/$3 before I play $2/5. I do not want to use my success in life as a "cheat code" to progress too quickly in poker stakes as I suspect that will ultimately be negative EV. I want to continue to work out some of my post-flop leaks in the lowest stakes. I just don't know what that measure is to deem I am objectively ready to move up long term.

    I appreciate your insight!
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 291 ✭✭✭
    I think @Travis had an excellent take on this within his recent podcast (RCP podcast I believe?)... and I'm paraphrasing:

    Your next 1/3 session, if you are ahead at what amounts to a 2/5 buy in AND you are still feeling well AND are not playing past your max time frame, then freeroll the 2/5 shot. Even if just for an hour or two, take your winnings and take your shot tonight... right now. You won't overthink it on the drive to the room, and you are warmed up and playing well.
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 139 ✭✭
    Great! Well, the fact that you have a proper roll and are on a poker forum are both excellent indicators that you're on your way.

    As someone who's very familiar with both stakes I'd suggest using your time at $1/3 to keep improving your game, tightening up all those loose screws, experimenting a lot and always actively thinking about where you sit on the pecking order in the games you play. Watch your opponents closely and figure out if they're thinking about the game on the same level you are, and are they able to put that knowledge into practise. Pay attention to how often you're able to outplay them vs how often you're worried they're outplaying you.

    If you're consistently finding that you're placing yourself as one of the top 3 players on the table, I'd say you're ready, as long as you're rolled for it.

    Or, it you want something more concrete, just look at your win rate.

    Is it in the 0-5BB/h, 5-10BB/h or 10+BB/h range?

    Perhaps make a goal to get a good amount of play under your belt over the next x months and see where you're at then. I think if you can manage to win between 5-10 big blinds per hour over a long enough period of time, you'll know with closely to certainty that you're ready to take shots without worrying about becoming fish food. If you can crack 10+ over at least 500 hours, that seems to be the consensus that you're crushing the game and should jump up in stakes the moment you're rolled to.
  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 188 ✭✭✭
    edited March 15
    This is sort of speculation, but imo, if you can average 12+ BB/hour in 1/2 or 1/3, it might be more profitable to move up to 2/5. Good 2/5 players should be able to make 15+ BB/hour at 1/2 and 1/3 in their sleep. But you have to be pretty confident that your sample size isn't just a bunch of run good.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,757 -
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    This is sort of speculation, but imo, if you can average 12+ BB/hour in 1/2 or 1/3, it might be more profitable to move up to 2/5. Good 2/5 players should be able to make 15+ BB/hour at 1/2 and 1/3 in their sleep. But you have to be pretty confident that your sample size isn't just a bunch of run good.

    You think that's true with a $5+2 drop and half the table sitting 50bb?
    Moderation In Moderation
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 186 ✭✭

    If you were in my shoes, what would be your trigger to take your next shot?

    Two words:
    March Madness!

    Any casino with sports betting will be a prime target.
  • FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 30 ✭✭
    No sports book where I play but I like the idea.

    I am not sure that the $1/$3 sample isn't run good. For 5 hours I was playing too tired and off my normal "A game".

    I play aggressively and make most of my profits come stealing money from limpers and playing in position heads up versus the limp caller(s). I am fairly aggressive and I am not sure if my post flop play is yet strong enough to play against consistently competent opponents.
  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 188 ✭✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    This is sort of speculation, but imo, if you can average 12+ BB/hour in 1/2 or 1/3, it might be more profitable to move up to 2/5. Good 2/5 players should be able to make 15+ BB/hour at 1/2 and 1/3 in their sleep. But you have to be pretty confident that your sample size isn't just a bunch of run good.

    You think that's true with a $5+2 drop and half the table sitting 50bb?

    I do. I was imagining 5+1 and no preflop rake, but even 5+2 and preflop rake, 10BB/hour at least. But maybe the 1/2 pool in Chicago is just way way softer than anywhere else in the US.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭✭
    So I'd also point out that, despite lower stakes (1/2, 1/3) is good to play and experiment, you won't be able to get experience against stronger player... if you don't play against stronger player.
    It could be even worst if you just play to play (to win chips, in an automatic mod): you could develop mechanism useful against bad low stakes player but your ruin against better ones - plays which will be then hard to correct.

    So I can only advocate you to hit the stronger field. Use these shots, play your A-game, and take a much note as you can. Analyze then all moments when you were in a tough spot and/or were surprised, and learn from them; any buy-in lost is but an investment.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭
    I believe in moving up as soon as you think you might just possibly could maybe do it lol.... At least to take shots at it. If you have taken shots and are trying to decide to move up based on money, and want to use a bankroll rather than a budget 15 buyins is enough and if you drop below 13 then just go back down, It took me and most I know a few tries to move up and stay up.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Lots of good advice but it probably needs to be stated that there is likely no objective way of ascertaining this. Jerry "imperator" used to posit that strategy as a function of bankroll was an underdeveloped idea, and that is likely true.

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