Settle a Debate: X/R This Draw in a 3 bet pot?

Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 337 ✭✭✭
Very controversial hand I posted in a group chat with a few RCPers. Would like to get some feedback from the forum since we could not reach anything resembling a concensus.

1/3 at MGM National Harbor Thursday afternoon, hero, about 3 hours into session is dealt :7h: :8H:

The CO ($240) opens to $11 with no limpers prior. Hero ($770) on button calls. SB ($225) 3 bets to $30. BB ($475) calls. CO folds. Hero elects to call. I thought with position and a hand that would play well MW, I could get away with a call here for just 19 more dollars with a decent preflop pot and decent stacks behind. (Interestingly, no one in the group even discussed the preflop decision.)

Flop ($101): :Td: :3H: :6H:

So hero has a gut shot and a flush draw.

SB, the 3 better, bets $25. BB calls. Hero elects to raise his draw to $100. I think this is a good spot to play a draw aggressively given that I do not believe either SB or BB has a set here. SB had not 3 betted KK prior in session. BB is fairly new to table. ~20 hands, maybe.

SB shoves his remaining $185. BB calls for $160.

Hero? Hero can reraise given the size and BB has $260 remaining.

The decision was broached to the group chat as do we flat or do we shove here. However, we did have one person adamant that a fold was warranted here as there may be better draws out there and that our 12 outer may realistically be a 3 outer (just to the straight that doesn't complete a flush).

I don't think we should ever be folding in this situation given the size of the pot and the small requirement to call. My thoughts on a shove vs. flat here were basically:

1) If we flat and then hit, does V ever pay us off?
2) If we hit, does V ever hit harder and beat us?
3) If we jam, does V ever call with an overpair like JJ? Maybe QQ?

So I wanted to open this to the broader red chip community.

And as a side note, if anyone wants to join our Whatsapp chat, we have six other Red Chippers who talk a lot of poker (and a lot of non poker), so message me and I'll add you. Great forum for feedback and fellowship.

Comments

  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 139 ✭✭
    I like your reasoning. It's gamble, yes, but it's also good to have combo draws in your shoving range here.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You can't xr in position, a nice clue as how to play this hand.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 337 ✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    You can't xr in position, a nice clue as how to play this hand.

    Of course. I made the same typo in the group chat.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,950 -
    #3 is my major focus (assuming you mean shove instead of raise to $100).

    But getting 6:1 with position, calling is pretty great here imo.
    My new book lays out the playbook for AK. Grab your copy and start Optimizing Ace King!
  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    If we flat, and the turn is a brick, then what? BB jams and we fold? Hope it goes check/check?

    Flatting feels like it puts us in a potentially very tough spot on the Turn.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 337 ✭✭✭
    SplitSuit wrote: »
    #3 is my major focus (assuming you mean shove instead of raise to $100).

    But getting 6:1 with position, calling is pretty great here imo.

    Really? I certainly lean toward shoving because of the concern brought up by @Brews_and_Cards if the turn bricks.

    How do we navigate turn if it bricks here?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    So your arguments are that you do something because it's easier.

    Anyway, you're not going to make a massive error anytime you have lots of equity. If you like to get all in with 8 high, you will see a way here. That said:

    1) You have better draws to do this with,
    2) you rep a draw, just like the thread with 210cc

    In other words, you're arguing over the wrong things.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 337 ✭✭✭
    My confusion, not an argument, is that I am not sure how to proceed if the turn bricks if I just flat. I'm not sure how you get that I'm shying away in favor of an 'easier' decision. I'm not sure what the better play would be. I'm inclined to think, generally, that when I put myself in tough spots, the mistake was earlier than the decision point. Perhaps no raise on the flop with position and a non nuttish draw?

    Is the issue that BB is probably committed and I have banked everything in this hand on:

    a) hitting my draw;
    b) someone else not hitting a better draw?

    I certainly agree I have better draws to do this with. I would prefer to be drawing to the nuts. However, in a 3-bet pot, I think it less likely that BB has a better draw here. My rationale:

    The heart draws that BB could conceivably have are AhKh, KhQh, and perhaps QhJh, although I would be surprised to see this V ever call a 3 bet with QJs, maybe even KQs.

    Further, it doesn't make sense to me for BB to flat the SB shove if he does in fact have a draw. And I would have also expected him to raise his sets on this board. I don't want to overly narrow his range, but I think JJ, QQ were more likely than any draws.

    In terms of what I am repping, can I not rep TT and 66 and 33 as well as draws?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well, let's be crystal clear, I am talking about reacting to the first action on the flop. Once you raise flop, there is no going back, folding now would be the worst line possible.

    So if we're talking about the same thing, let's proceed.

    A few things, in any case:
    How do we navigate turn if it bricks here?
    Flatting feels like it puts us in a potentially very tough spot on the Turn.
    The implication of these comments from you and Brews is where I get the ease of play argument from.
    In terms of what I am repping, can I not rep TT and 66 and 33 as well as draws?
    This is a common fallacy in this forum. Yes, you have some nut hands available, but they do not compose a threatening percentage of your range.

    In other words, no one should ever be folding QQ/JJ to you as played.
  • Brews_and_CardsBrews_and_Cards Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    I've often heard that we want to make decisions that make our life easier on future streets. But, admittedly, that could be your generic "sounds-good" bad poker advice.

    I personally don't like raising this particular hand, given we're not nutted even if we make our flush.

    But once you've decided to raise, and SB jams, I believe jamming is better than flatting along with BB. This strikes me as a "we've made our bed, and now we get to lie in it" situation.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I've often heard that we want to make decisions that make our life easier on future streets. But, admittedly, that could be your generic "sounds-good" bad poker advice.

    Sure, simplified decision making is all the rage for a good reason. That reasoning will apply in situations where a massive number of potentialities are too much to account for. That's not the case here.

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