Bonehead bluff, or could this be profitable?

MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
This is from about a month ago, but it's been bouncing around in my head the whole time since. Casino $1/3 game, nothing particularly unusual about the table or players involved.

I'd been running hot and had about $800 in front of me when I raised :Js :Jc to $20 in the HJ after a two limpers.

The CO, someone I'd never seen before who struck me as a recreational player, proceeds to 4bet me to $50. He has ~ $400 left. The BB, who I've pegged as a looser goosey gambler type overcalls the $50. This doesn't phase me all that much, and given my hand and the price I'm now getting, I elect to call and see a flop.

The flop comes :Kh :Qc :Td, we both check, and the CO cbets $80.

The BB folds and I call with my draw to the nuts. I didn't see any reason to do anything else here because considering he's not a regular, this board smashes a 3betters range and he bet despite there being three to a straight out there, I have to give him credit for a King or Queen with a gunshot at a minimum, plus I don't block any potential two pairs, sets, or AA.

When the :8c dropped on the turn, and with the pot up to $300 and him with just $300ish left, I was ready to fold to a shove. But instead it went check check.

Unfortunately the river bricked out, a :2s or something like that, and I was left wondering what to do. His check on the turn screamed to me he wanted to get to showdown preferably without having to pay another $300. So I'm pretty confident at this point he's sitting on a one pair hand like AK, AQ or AA, which is also congruent with his smaller than usual 3bet. But even though I think I have a solid read that he's not nutted here, I just don't see him folding to a single bet on the river, so I check.

He thinks for a little longer than I would think is standard, and puts out a bet of $50. I remember my exact thought. "Nice scared value bet. You have a good hand but are scared that I'm trapping you with a straight."

Then I thought. Wait. I have JJ. I'm double blocking all the straights. And considering his check back on the turn after a second club came out, the odds of him having a huge hand here are low. He may not have folded to a single bet, but he will almost certainly fold to a x/r!

So I put him all in for his last $250.

And he called pretty quickly with QQ.

Sigh.

I thought it was the right thing to do at the time. But since then, I'm wondering, do I ever really check AJ or J9 on the river there? Probably not.

So, was this reasonable, given how his range appeared? Or was it just spewy and I've been trying way too hard this last month to convince myself if was a smart play?




Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,973 ✭✭✭✭
    What was your preflop plan when facing the 3bet ? Hoping to either hit J or that V has AK/AQ and doesn't improve ?

    On the flop, do you really have the right odds to call with OESD (esp. when you give V many AA/AX hands) ?
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    pre flop I think I'm just stuck between a rock and a hard place. I'm not going to 4bet a recreational player with Jacks, and I shouldn't fold for that price. I'm confident in my ability to navigate uncomfortable situations against a player like this, but I won't be able to formulate a better plan than that until I see what the flop is.

    Odds wise on the flop, I mean I don't have direct odds for the turn, not, but it's not a huge discrepancy. And as we saw, he did let me see two cards for that $80. I just felt like he can have a monster hand like a set that he probably won't be able to get away from even if comes four to a straight.

    Maybe I'm wrong, but folding there just feels really nitty.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 154 ✭✭
    This board isnt wet enough to bluff someone who you describe as loose imo.

    That combined with the action makes it look like a steal to me personally; like you said, why check turn when you're reppin what you're reppin?

    Chalk it up to a bad read, pretty sure youre never getting loosey goosey off middle set even if the boards KQJT9 all clubs.

    If your read is accurate however and loosey goose got TPTK I'd still skew the FE equity %'s against your favor on boards like this. Wanna gamble with the gambler? Jam away.

  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    edited March 21
    The loosey goosey player was the one who overcalled and folded on the flop. I was trying to get the recreational player to fold. I think my read was half right in that he wasn't trying to get his monster hand all in for some reason, but was wrong in that I discounted all 2pair+ hands after his turn check back.

    But yeah, you're totally right that my line didn't really make too much sense regardless. Maybe if I was up against a reg who'd never check that turn with such a monster hand... I dunno.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,973 ✭✭✭✭
    re-reading a point here
    MichaelB wrote: »
    Then I thought. Wait. I have JJ. I'm double blocking all the straights.
    But does V, a recreational low stakes player, even have any JX hands in his preflop 3bet range ? Didn't you put him on like QQ+/AQs/AKso ? (still, I doubt an US rec player will 3bet with AQs/AKso)
    I think you're blocking nothing with JJ :)

    I think you can only bluff here with QJs.
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 154 ✭✭
    Ha wow im not a very good multitasker it seems. And sounds like the rec was just trying to be trappy? Idk
  • osirus0830osirus0830 Red Chipper Posts: 62 ✭✭
    I don't like the play for two reasons:

    1. Villain is going to be over weighted with KK+. I never target sets to fold and with AA, he blocks many of the AJ combos.
    2. When villain checks turn on a board that he could have sets on and he has a general range advantage, hes likely planning to check call to induce.
  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 251 ✭✭✭
    edited March 22
    Are you really checking AJ here on the river? If not, this is a terrible bluff, and a balanced bluff would be to open shove river.
    Even if you do have AJ here, which of villain's 3bet hands take this line and fold? in my experience, low stakes players will not let go of a set here, even though you are repping a straight. AA should call with two nut blockers, and AQ checks flop frequently. So maybe exactly AK? But there's 12 combos of that, and 14 combos of QQ-AA, and I bet a 1/3 villain doesn't even fold all his AK. I think this is a case where you can take a general exploit line, realize that the player pool overcalls here, and just don't bluff.

    Plus, 1/6th pot is so cheap that calling is almost worth it just to get info on what 3bet hand is checking this turn card behind.

    It also seems like villain might think you float too light, as the river size-down smells like he's trying to induce, not that he's afraid.

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