River bluff after all the missed draws

DeadliftsDeadlifts Red Chipper Posts: 128 ✭✭
edited March 20 in Online Poker Hands
Guidance on sizing please:

50 NLZ

Hero--$57.45-- :8h :6h --BU
V--$78.32--UTG

V opens 3x, H, SB, BB flat.

($6)Flop: :4h :Kc :2h
x,x V bets 3, H calls, both blinds fold

($12)Turn: :5s
V bets 9, H calls

($30)River: :5d
V tanks for a bit, bets 25...hero??

This is Zone, so we are playing more unbalanced, and not very exploitative, definitely a great board for my range vs Villain's. Thoughts on sizing to go with here (I would imagine if we're trying to get this through, jamming makes sense)?

Comments

  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 456 ✭✭✭
    Based on my math, V has $9.82 behind. So if you jam, the total pot size will be around 90 bucks.

    So, just thinking about how often V has to win this hand from his perspective, its not even 10 percent of the time. So I don't see him ever folding in this spot when you jam for just $9.82 more.

    I also would probably fold 86s to an UTG open, but I am not a 6 maxer so take that with a grain of salt.
  • DeadliftsDeadlifts Red Chipper Posts: 128 ✭✭
    @Jordan Power

    Good catch, had to fix the stacks (currently at work so did this a bit rushed). In 6max I'm more comfortable with flatting a hand like 86s, then in FR of course. It's also player dependent imo, if UTG was spewy, or played super wide pre, I'm either 3betting this or flatting.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 456 ✭✭✭
    I think my comment still stands based on the updated stack sizes. V has to call $18.95 more to win nearly $99. He only needs 16.1% equity to continue based on my math. Certainly better than just 9% on earlier stack depth, but at 16%, fairly certain you are not going to get a call enough here to breakeven on this bluff.
  • DeadliftsDeadlifts Red Chipper Posts: 128 ✭✭
    @Jordan Power

    Agree, with 5:1, you can practically call with a2c heh
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,052 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This is Zone, so we are playing more unbalanced, and not very exploitative, definitely a great board for my range vs Villain's.
    This is quite a statement.
  • DeadliftsDeadlifts Red Chipper Posts: 128 ✭✭
    Well in my opinion, it makes sense at higher stakes in Zone that the ability to exploit becomes more prevalent; whereas at 50- we can take a more imbalanced approach. Especially when players don't bluff the river nearly enough in spots like these. Far more reasonable for me to have more 5's in my range, so I would argue the runout favors my range. The more I think about it, the more this also serves as an ego check for me anyway, I neglected to pay attention to stack depth in my chosen line.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,052 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well the exploit in a sense always makes less sense, so you're right, if you were deeper maybe this has more merit. As the Spartans said to the Macedonians: If.

    In any case, let's get into the details: why do you think you have more fives that arrive on the river?
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 456 ✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    As the Spartans said to the Macedonians: If.

    Bravo. Great reference.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,270 -
    persuadeo wrote: »
    As the Spartans said to the Macedonians: If.

    Bravo. Great reference.

    He is known for his laconic wit.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • DeadliftsDeadlifts Red Chipper Posts: 128 ✭✭
    @persuadeo

    Indeed a stellar reference. I put some thought into this post this morning. Allow me to backtrack here. First, I did not want to come across as we "never" exploit or "never" balance ourselves in zone. I think it's more fair to say there are generalized guidelines to follow, but should always be cognizant of player dependencies etc. even if it's Ignition specific.

    Since we play towards the population in general, I view my flatting range on the BU as having more 5's than a UTG open, especially one that is 4x (typically a range of 99+/AQ+)...I can of course, be wrong here. Jordan made a great point again about stack depth in this hand..something I failed to pay attention to.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,052 ✭✭✭✭✭
    well, let's forget depth for the time.

    let's start with preflop, he has A5s, 45s, 56s, possibly, you can tell me

    You have ______?
  • DeadliftsDeadlifts Red Chipper Posts: 128 ✭✭
    @persuadeo

    I would reasonably have Ax, 56s--9Ts, 22--99. At this level I would probably venture to say that players aren't "gutsy" enough to open a hand like 45s or 56s UTG; is it possible, yes; is it common..not from what I've seen..A2s-A5s more likely. Great catch about the A5s limiting my possibility to "have all the 5's here"

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