2/5 Flopped Set OOP

cxy123cxy123 ✭✭Red Chipper Posts: 50 ✭✭
V - Generally unknown. This is his first hand at the table. He sat down in MP and posts $5. $500 stack

Hero - Relatively new to the table as well. I sat down within last 2 orbits. Sitting on about $490.

Hero UTG with :7h :7d Opens to $15. Most opens were $15 and some $20.
Villain is in MP just sat down and had posted $5 and calls $10 more.
Folds around.

FLOP - HU $30 pot
:Kh :5h :7s

Hero bets $25
V calls

TURN - $80 pot
:8s so board is Kh5h7s8s

Hero bets $55
V calls

River - $190
:9h so final board is
:Kh :5h :7s :8s :9h

Hero - ?


On the flop I am thinking V can have a K here and a lot of straight/flush draws with or without a pair. Maybe a weird 2p like K5 but I think I get a raise on the flop. I really am thinking hearts or K or TT-JJ type of hand. Seems straight forward bet for value all day long.

On the turn, I'm not slowing down yet. Unlikely V has a straight. Any merit to checking though? Hearts may or may not call. I think nut flushes tend to call again though and maybe QhXh call (QJ, QT probably only 2 combos). Tough to make a straight but more likely he has a pair+ now. If he has AK (unlikely but who knows) and KQ-K8 calls. I think it is still a good value bet here but open to suggestions.

River - I am not sure to bet or if I bet what sizing. Pot is $190 and stacks are both around $400. Front door hearts get there and any 6 makes a straight. JT gets there but I dont see any way V has that unless he had exactly JhTh. Do we b/f $100? b/c? c/c? c/r? I dont know if V is bluffy. There has been no aggression so far though. What does my hand look like. AA, AK, KK? Maybe QQ sometimes and suited KQ. Short of KK, if V can hand read he can put a lot of pressure on me with a River Raise - but again he played fairly passive.

Comments

  • LoveFishLoveFish ✭✭ IllinoisRed Chipper Posts: 95 ✭✭
    edited March 20
    I’m probably going to bet 1/3 pot on the river so 65$ ish as it’s going to be pretty tough to get 3 streets of value form a 1 pair hand. Seeing how our opponent did not 3 bet we can take out AK out of his range. Almost any Ax type/ 2 pair hands will call off a 1:3 pot sized bet.
    We should still try and go for value so checking is out of the question.
    So In my opinion bet 1/3 pot and fold to a re raise.
  • cxy123cxy123 ✭✭ Red Chipper Posts: 50 ✭✭
    You mean Kx as a 2p? And not Ax as a 2p right? So K8 calls 1/3 pot bet? That is the target? I think there are a ton of 2p hands V can call with.

    To add I dont think V is a pro. I think he is a rec. I havent seen him before and doesnt seem anything more than 30 something WG playing poker as this point. My hand is mostly face up. Yeah i can have a set of 77s obv but I think V is probably thinking I have AA, AK, KK. I guess maybe some AJ/AThh. If V has Ah5c lets say, does typical V decide to raise or jam over a river bet as a bluff?

  • LoveFishLoveFish ✭✭ IllinoisRed Chipper Posts: 95 ✭✭
    edited March 20
    Sorry yes Kx-KQ Yes personally I think 1/3 is a good sizing in my opinion.

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