Big pot with AA

Benjammin Benjammin Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
edited March 25 in Live Poker Hands
Towards the end of last nights 1/3 session I came back from a break and stradled from the hijack to get back in the game. The action works back to me with 6 callers and I look down to find :Ad :Ah . I raise $25 more to make the total bet $31 with $323 left behind. Probably could have made it more and still had a call, but I think I was being greedy. I get 3 calls, one from a short stack player with only about $50 left behind and the other two calls coming from very loose and very bad deep stacked players. I have position on the two deep players who are the big blind and UTG player. The flop which comes out :5h :9D: :8h .
My opponents in this hand are pretty poor players. They’ll limp strong hands and pay large sums to see the flop with total garbage. Playing :Td :7d for a large raise ($36)and managing to make a boat is how one guy got to be 300+bbs deep, and the other guy has lost a ton and keeps topping up to keep up with him. So, my thinking is that this flop helped them lots, but unless they show ANY aggression I’m ahead. Easy game with these guys. Both players check I bet $105 into ~$130 and get three calls. The short stack is on the button and all in for less, but there’s about $218 left behind for me to play the next street. I’m not super excited about my hand but will be putting it in if we manage to miss straight cards and flush cards on the turn. Turn comes :5s and both players check to hero who goes all in for $218 into a pot of ~$500
Is this a play you would make, or would you take the chance to see the river and play perfectly against weaker opponents?

Comments

  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 209 ✭✭
    There's one higher risk play that requires a little luck and situational awareness. OTF, bet $1 less than the short stack. He's a strong candidate to shove. Other two call and then you shove.

    It's a bit more dangerous, counting on the action of others.

    As played, safe, sane and solid.
  • LoveFishLoveFish IllinoisRed Chipper Posts: 92 ✭✭
    Bet 1$ less than the short stack? You can’t reshove there.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭✭
    We're betting large on a board in a multiway pot that doesn't belong to us. This board misses our perceived range entirely, as we're probably not raising 88 or 99 like this pre. Even if we are, it's a tiny part of our range. A lot of our range prefers protection on this board and on many run-outs which is why I would elect to check this board. This may also induce the short stack to jam his remaining stack in the middle, giving us the ability to x/r if the weaker players only call.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭✭
    agree with @Ninjah .

    I'd say: it also depends on how V play postflop. Yeah, they may be station preflop to see a flop, but then, how do they play their marginal hands like naked gutshot, WP, etc ? If they fold a lot potflop (aka continuing only with good equity), then I really don't like betting large.
    I can be on board only if they are terrible station - still, facing 3 Villain decrease our equity, so even if we would take the pot down more than we should (because they play bad), we are still facing serious swings as we are facing more opponents - you've potentially a LOT of cards to dodge.

    Also I'm ok to either underbet this flop (a bit under 50% of short stack, to reopen the action in case he shoves) or to check. Considering SPR and board, you don't need to bet 3 streets to play for stacks - so no need to bet flop solely build the pot.
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 209 ✭✭
    LoveFish wrote: »
    Bet 1$ less than the short stack? You can’t reshove there.

    Indeed. I meant $1 less than half.
  • Benjammin Benjammin Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    edited March 25
    I’m betting here strictly for value, as I do consider both of these villains to be stations and gamblers who will call with any piece of the flop and raise any strong hand straight away. I’m just wondering what thoughts are on the merits of checking the turn and seeing the river and then trying to get value again on s good run out, or folding to aggression on cards that fill the draws. Is it better to charge the maximum and accept the variance on the last card or play somewhat more passively by waiting for a clean river to try and value bet.
    Both players elect to just call and check the river dark. Showdown reveals Villain 1 limped his :Qd :Qh For the initial $6 and Villain 2 got there on the :6h river with :9h :7s
    This is exactly where I put them, so I’m just wondering what the opinions are of the best way to get the most money out of these types of hands is.
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,755 -
    My initial intuition was indifference and leaning towards a check on the flop.
    It is nice that GTO+ feels the same way. This is a situation where a mixed strategy is recommended (see this video: https://redchippoker.com/pro-video-hull030/ on mixed strategies: PRO video)

    A mixed strategy is one where two options (bet or check) in this situation are considered equal EV. The mixed strategy arises because both are equal and balance is achieved by doing either in some ratio.

    9l34cr7bdkc9.png

    This screen shot shows the assumptions of ranges and also the idea that there is only one villain. Having more Villains will push this to more passivity, so that means we should read this as more of a check than stated.

    Also notice that of all the pairs of Aces, this one is the LEAST aggro. Why is that?

    We block the nut flush draws and the nut backdoor flush draws. This implies that those that call us are far more likely to have value hands since the best draws are not available.

    We will be facing ugly turn and river cards (or both) a ton of the time, and the things we don't want to face will call us anyways. Building a big pot, against a wide field where we will likely be in bluff catching mode is not something I am looking for.

    Let the turn come and you can bet this when checked to a ton.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    Im checking this board. As Ninjah said, this flop is all over the callers range.... Pair + draws, straight draws, top pair and 2 pair are all in the callers range and they arent folding.

    We need to dodge a ton of the deck and unless we hit an A, we're stuck with basically a bluffcatcher.
  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 55 ✭✭
    Interesting to hear that most of you guys are checking the flop here. My intuition was to bet the flop hard, probably closer to full pot. My reason is because of how station-y and unaware two of the opponents are. For that reason, 1) I see a ton of value to be had by betting, and 2) I wouldn't be worried about them adjusting to the fact that we miss this board a lot, instead I'd just expect them to play their cards and call with stuff like T8.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,070 -
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Doug Hull wrote: »
    My initial intuition was indifference and leaning towards a check on the flop.
    It is nice that GTO+ feels the same way. This is a situation where a mixed strategy is recommended (see this video: https://redchippoker.com/pro-video-hull030/ on mixed strategies: PRO video)

    A mixed strategy is one where two options (bet or check) in this situation are considered equal EV. The mixed strategy arises because both are equal and balance is achieved by doing either in some ratio.

    9l34cr7bdkc9.png

    This screen shot shows the assumptions of ranges and also the idea that there is only one villain. Having more Villains will push this to more passivity, so that means we should read this as more of a check than stated.

    Also notice that of all the pairs of Aces, this one is the LEAST aggro. Why is that?

    We block the nut flush draws and the nut backdoor flush draws. This implies that those that call us are far more likely to have value hands since the best draws are not available.

    We will be facing ugly turn and river cards (or both) a ton of the time, and the things we don't want to face will call us anyways. Building a big pot, against a wide field where we will likely be in bluff catching mode is not something I am looking for.

    Let the turn come and you can bet this when checked to a ton.

    Why do you say that a mixed strategy here is recommended? What's your justification for that?

    I think Doug means the solver gives a .371/.629 bet/check recommendation which by definition is mixed.
    Moderation In Moderation

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file