Flop 2 pair, but 4-straight 2-color on Turn

babalouisebabalouise Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
I'm sorry if I'm giving too much information here, making this post long. Just wanting to share my thinking with each of my actions, for a good critique. I was playing live 1/3 table. Most players were loose pre-flop with lots of limpers on many boards. Here is the action:

Hero: Jc Tc

Action 1: Hero raises to $15 from EP.
4 callers. So 5 to the flop. Flop has: $74 (after $5 rake removed)

Flop: Qh Jh Td

(a) Action 1: First to act, I bet $60.

My thinking: Shoot. Scary board. Maybe I should check? (With 4 callers, maybe somebody has straight or …?) Maybe I should bet bigger? (Get draws out…) But I bet $60, about 4/5 pot.

One caller in LP.

Turn: 9d

(b) Action 2: Check

My thinking: Oh, Jesus. A straight? Let me see what he does.

Villain goes all-in for his remaining $205. He does it quickly, without reflection.

(c) Action 3: Fold

My thinking: There is now 74 (pre-flop) + 120 (flop) + 205 (Villain’s all-in) = $399

I need to call $205 to win $399. If he has a straight, I’ve got 4 outs to hit my full-house, so about 8% equity. He might be on a flush draw, or he might have AQ that he decided to turn into a bluff once I showed weakness by checking the turn. There is also a good chance he had KQ or AK. But with AK, he might have re-raised pre-flop?

Was my fold right? $205 to win $399 means I would need 34% equity to make calling right. I’m getting 8% equity even if he has his straight. BUT, even if he does not have his straight, he probably has a flush draw, so I’m not an automatic winner against the semi-bluff.

Let’s say he’s "got it" (straight) 70% of the time and semi-bluffing with flush draw 30%.

So my equity would be:

70% * 8% (hitting my 4-outer) = 5.6%

+

30% * (1 – 18% (him hitting his flush)) = 30% * 82% = 24.6%

5.6 = 24.5 = 30.2%

… And I needed 34% equity, and only got 30.2%. So fold is right? But maybe my 70% “got it” to 30% “semi-bluff” isn’t right?

Comments

  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    edited March 26
    There are arguments for betting big on a scary flop when you hit hard with lots of others in the hand. Personally, I'm not a big fan in this particular spot. We actually have the weakest of all the nutted hands, with every other combo definitely still in play, so a very real chance of being behind already, plus a not unreasonable chance that we improve to a second best hand.

    But the number one reason I wouldn't want to bet 4/5 of the pot here is because I'm OOP against 4 others. As you discovered on the turn, you're really at the mercy of your opponents here. Just one nasty card and you're in vomit territory.

    What else is there to say here besides he can easily have it, but he can also easily be turning his hand into a bluff because do you ever bet so big OOP against 4 opponents on this flop with a King and then go on to check this turn?

    Whether he's bluffing or value betting, he's going to want to get it in here and there's no way for you to know which is which, all you can be sure of is that he knows you don't beat a straight at the moment.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,037 ✭✭✭✭
    babalouise wrote: »
    Action 1: Hero raises to $15 from EP.
    4 callers. So 5 to the flop. Flop has: $74 (after $5 rake removed)
    Do you (or other PFR) always get 4 callers when betting 15$? If yes, then there is a bet sizing issue here.
  • babalouisebabalouise Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    So Michael, are you suggesting that I might just check-fold, or check-call (on flop) and then likely check-fold on turn?

    Red, there seemed to be a lot of pre-flop limping but I didn't think there would be 5 people going to flop after an EP raise of 5xBB (it was a 1/3 game).
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    edited March 27
    There comes a point (probably around 7-10xBB) where upping your pre flop opens start to seriously restrict your range. And when the right players are on your table, giving the right kind of action, restricting the number of hands you play could be a big mistake. Sometimes, in loose low stakes games, tables are just going to be like this, but it almost always ebbs and flows.

    As for your predicament in this hand, I can't imagine there's a definitive way to play it, but as a default, I tend to cbet smaller the more multiway it gets. Considering there's a flush draw out there on top of everything else, I think if you check call you put yourself in the same position as you did with your big bet/check line, namely you give up your range advantage and leave yourself open to being exploited by one of the other 4 players.

    But if you had have bet, say $30 on the flop, and gotten just one call, his shove would've been $235 into $135, which is a very different spot that says something different about his hand. Maybe he makes a more reasonable bet? Another possibility with a smaller bet is you get one or more extra stragglers to come along and now it's much less likely that villain would bluff jam into multiple opponents, so you can fold with a much higher certainty of where you stand in the hand.

    A lot of people fear getting bluffed off a big hand if they bet small into pots like this, but in my experience, it's a pretty rare occurrence. Just the other day I bet $50 into a 5 way $180 pot with TPTK and no one called. I'd say this is because even though the initial bet is small, the implication of bigger bets on later streets is enough to scare people into not getting too out of line.

    Finally, you're not going to get an awful turn card every time in spots like this, and I just think if you can manage to not bloat the pot too much on the flop, you'll be in a much more preferable situation to take advantage of such instances.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,037 ✭✭✭✭
    babalouise wrote: »
    Red, there seemed to be a lot of pre-flop limping but I didn't think there would be 5 people going to flop after an EP raise of 5xBB (it was a 1/3 game).
    1/3, my standard opening is 20$. In fact, any low stakes games I open ~6-7X. And I can size even bigger if I know they like to call preflop.
  • babalouisebabalouise Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    Wow, Red, opening $20 pre-flop - you must have a tight range then?
  • babalouisebabalouise Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    I like your post, Michael. When I first read your suggestion to bet "only" $30, I thought, what? May as well check. $30 will just get a lot of flush and straight draws to call ... but your point after that was great. With the $30 bet, there would likely be at least 2 callers, and people would be less willing to bluff shove into 2 people than into 1. Even if I get only 1 caller, I could wait until the turn and then bet big on the turn if a blank comes. Like that.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,037 ✭✭✭✭
    babalouise wrote: »
    Wow, Red, opening $20 pre-flop - you must have a tight range then?

    lol no. I'm in-between TAG and LAG - and spazzing out sometimes; often enough that I've to include napkins in my range construction. But I feel comfortable playing so - what is important is having a strategy, one which fits your profile.
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,756 -
    In EP, the JTs is a marginal open. Given the massively multi-way nature this went, we can ask if the marginal open could predict this was a distinct possibility.

    If you knew this would happen 50% of the time, would you still open?

    Post flop, I like our hand, but don't love it. We are dodging every heart and eight or higher. Even boating up gives us underboats often.

    We have a bluff catcher, out of position in a bloated pot, dodging half the deck. Not a place I want to c-bet. Our equity is going to be a bear to actualize. I check flop.

    The turn kills your hand, give it up.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • babalouisebabalouise Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    That's interesting because I actually thought MORE about this hand while I was on a big (and beautiful) hike this morning. I decided that I maybe should *not* have folded. I decided that the guy who went all in was perhaps 50% "got the straight" and 50% semi-bluff with flush draw. Based on those percents, I guess I *do* have the odds to call (have to call $205 to win $399).

    I was surprised with your post because I thought that's what you were going to write in to say, but I guess not.

    Hmm - doesn't everybody open EP with JTs? If I'm not opening with JTs, maybe I should also fold all my lower pocket pairs in EP, like 77- ? (I would normally open all of these.)
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,984 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Good posts by Michael here.

    There are two problems for OP as a student of the game.

    1) This is not really a "scary" board. The ep opener has flopped absolute nut advantage - it is extremely unlikely that anyone has AK nor will the sets likely be shared. Their best hands are concentrated to two pairs and 98, maybe k9. So what does this mean?

    The reason it feels "scary" is that the equity of OP's exact holding is being considered primarily. Is this how to play the game?

    2) Bet sizing isn't an arbitrary process - look into what bets mean.

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