QJo OTB

CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
2/3 at the local cardroom. Heros image is a bit aggressive but probably value heavy.
Villain has been at table for an hour. First impression was that he thinks hes better than he is. Hes midthrirties, wearing mirrored aviators, hoody and airpods. Bought in for $200 and has been limping a lot. Reloading to $200

Action
3 limpers
Villain($200) in HJ raises to $10
one fold
Hero($475) looks at :Qd :Jh
This isnt usually a call for me but the small raise and the passive pf action of the blinds I elect to see the flop.
All other players fold.
Pot is $26
Flop
:As :Js :8s
Villain checks
Hero checks
I dont see a reason to bet. I more or less have a bluffcatcher IMO
Turn
:4s
Villain bet 15
I think a fold would be to passive, I think a call can induce my opponent to check th river to me if he has less than a flush and if he bets I might be able to raise and rep a flush depending on his river bet.
Hero calls
Pot $56
River :Jd
Villain bets $25
My perception is that the villain isnt very strong, maybe a small flush? I dont think an A is betting and unless he has :Ks I dont think he can stand a raise.
I can rep a boat or a big :spade
Hero raises to $150, didnt notice that this put him all in exactly but knew it was close.

Thoughts?

Comments

  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭✭
    My biggest concern on this hand is preflop. I'm surprised that everyone folded, but which 3 limpers in front and such a small raise, I would expect this to go multiway quite often if we choose to flat and that's a situation in which our hand isn't going to play very well. I'd much rather 3-bet against this small open with this hand and pick the pot up a good chunk of the time. As played, I don't think I'm folding but I really dislike a raise, we've got a lot of showdown value despite the 4 flush and we aren't folding out better hands or getting worse hands to call by raising.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭✭
    CASEY M wrote: »
    Turn
    :4s
    Villain bet 15
    I think a fold would be to passive, I think a call can induce my opponent to check th river to me if he has less than a flush and if he bets I might be able to raise and rep a flush depending on his river bet.
    Hero calls

    Which (better) flush can you rep on a river blank ? Because V not betting flop, he shall not have a weak made flush, but rather a strong :XS: :XD: flush - which he will usually keep betting on river.

    If you want to rep a flush, like :QS: :XC: or :KS: :XC: , why not raising turn ?
    Because if V has a marginal made hand (TPTK or similar, 2P AX), don't you think he would expect you to raise turn with your made flush - meaning you are over bluffing river?

    So I'm really not sure about your range construction on turn/river. It looks very unbalanced to me. You should dig into that and come back after some homework.
  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    edited March 28
    Yeah i considered 3betting pre but Chose otherwise.
    I really don’t think any 2/3 players are betting this turn and river without a spade. So i can’t see my trips being worth much at showdown.
    I also don’t think there is a lot of river bluffing going on at these stakes.
    I’m not sure how valuable balance is at these stakes. Exploit seems to be the way to make it at these lower stakes IMO.
    My range construction for this line until river could include :Ks :Qs ,
    :Qs with a J,
    88-TT with a :spade. So villain might even add A :Qs,
    :Ks Jx and a few more.
    Villains average to small bets made me think he doesn’t have a big spade. Wouldn’t his river bet be larger? Do we think he’d try to induce with anything other than a boat?

    I i really think a river call is setting money on fire at 2/3. Maybe he’s betting with TJ but other than that it seems way more flush heavy to me.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 423 ✭✭✭
    Even if your read is spot on, why bluff so big? Wouldn't 75 be as near effective as 150? What's the point of risking so much money? Would you raise to 150 with the nuts here?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,981 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Be clear on this: He is representing a full house exactly, not a flush at this sizing. It's not the perfect line as 888/J8 likely bets flop or often bets flop but is a good use of the J.
  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    edited March 28
    Even if your read is spot on, why bluff so big? Wouldn't 75 be as near effective as 150? What's the point of risking so much money? Would you raise to 150 with the nuts here?

    Yeah I think I am. If i bet $75 I can easily get called with a good flush. Getting reraised for his remaining $75 would SUCK! And betting this big makes a big spade shrivel up. Villain might hero with K or Q of spades but wouldn't he bet larger on previous streets with those?

    Also, when I do have it I want max value. But I really dont think balance is super important at these stakes.

    56 :spade +, QT :spade , all get really scared with this size. Even KJ with nut flush doesnt like being jammed on when the boat comes in.

    I dont feel like this is the best possible line but i do think it is a solid exploit in a game that has few overbet bluffs on the river against what looks like a flush.
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    edited March 28
    If, as you say, you're throwing balance out the window for this field, then I don't mind the sizing at all. You're right, people will have a very hard time putting you on a bluff here, and given the action happened when the repeat hit, and the size of the raise, would easily be able to recognise you're representing a boat.

    The only issue you have is that you were in position on the flop but opted to check back. That's the weak spot in your story. How do I put you on AJ, J8 or 88 now? Whether I call you here with any flush (doesn't matter if it's K high or 3 high as you're selling a boat here, not a flush, so any call would be a hero call) would come down to how I perceive you as a player.

  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    edited March 29
    MichaelB
    I thought about that for a bit but decided that if its a ten high flush or lower its gonna be a tough call and Im not sure if villain is putting stories together like that.
    I knows it a high variance line, maybe a really poor line, but I think calling the river is just bad and thought this was a decent try against this player type.

    My image was fairly aggressive but also value heavy. The hands he'd seen me showdown were winners and Id bet larger with them on later streets.

    I guess Im mostly curious about whether or not a call is ok here. If so, why? What worse hands than trips is villain betting turn and river with on this board?
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    I actually agree with you on this one. It is a very tough call for a player who isn't fully aware of what you should and shouldn't have in this hand, which is why I like it. Against an ABC player, I'd expect everything but boats and the nut flush to fold, and have been looking for a similar spot for weeks to do exactly what you describe. High variance, high reward.

    To answer your last question, given his action and bet sizing, my read on the hand is that he has a middling flush, T or Q high most of the time. He's seriously low on bluffs, practically to the point of non-existence, so with trips a call seems to me to be setting money on fire.

  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    He thought for a few seconds and folded. As I scooped the pot he said
    "I dont think I folded the best hand."
    "I dont know either." was my reply.

    A few hands later he said he had QTspades.
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    High-fiving myself for my internet hand reading skillz.
  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 55 ✭✭
    I agree with Ninjah that preflop is a mistake. When you call you're giving the others a great price, and most people don't look to limp-fold when they have a good price, so I'd expect this to go multiway a large percentage of the time. And when it does, your QJo doesn't perform particularly well. And being so multiway, you're not going to have much fold equity. So I think it's either a fold or a 3bet preflop. I'd prefer a fold and to save your 3betting for better hands like suited aces and suited connectors.

    On the flop, I don't mind a check but I'd prefer a bet. Once Villain checks, they probably don't have an ace, but there is a lot of stuff they could have that would want to call a bet from you, and your hand is vulnerable right now, so for those reasons I'd prefer a bet. Still, I don't mind looking to get to showdown either.

    On the turn I definitely don't think it'd be too tight to fold with your second pair because second pair is a very weak hand on this board. However, I don't hate the call. When a fourth spade comes, I think Villain's betting range becomes very polarized. I think they're just betting flushes and air. I think they're looking to get to showdown with an ace, two pair, or even a set. So your second pair is probably a fine bluff catcher if you think your opponent is bluffing enough here. I would assume that your opponent is not bluffing enough though. Bluffing on a four-suit board is a very sophisticated play that I wouldn't credit most opponents making. I think people save their bluffs for better and more standard spots, so I'd assume that Villain is extremely value-heavy and elect to fold here.

    Once the river comes, I feel even more strongly that Villain is very value-heavy here. It takes a lot of balls to bluff twice at a four-suit board. I think the overwhelming majority of opponents are not pulling off that play, especially at a high enough frequency where you should be bluffcatching. However, that doesn't mean you can't bluff raise.

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