Bluffcatch with 99 300bb deep against an aggro?

adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 61 ✭✭
edited March 29 in Live Poker Hands
I had a really fun hand last night playing $1/2. As the title mention, I think it essentially boiled down to bluffcatching with 99 super 300bb deep against an aggro opponent.

Preflop
Two limpers, main Villain limps behind in EP. I'm in MP with 99 and raise to $20 (typical for the game). Both limpers call.

Flop
$63 in the pot
4h3s2h
First limper checks, main Villain bets $40, I call, first limper folds.

Turn
$143 in the pot
(4h3s2h) - 2s
Villain checks, I bet $100, and after thinking for a few seconds, he jams.

Reads
Villain was a very good aggro. He probably had over $1000 in chips and was crushing the table. Barreling a lot, and it was working. Not afraid to put a lot of money in with a bluff at all. Got caught bluffing the river multiple times. Definitely had a betting range that was unbalanced towards bluffs, but not too too unbalanced.

I probably had an image as a solid TAG. Earlier on I had a nitty image. I won a huge pot to put my stack at about $600 and when I did I joked with the main Villain and the guy to my left who also had about $600 that it's going to be crazy playing so deep stacked or something like that. I think it could have indicated that I was uncomfortable getting it in without the nuts.

In a conversation earlier, main Villain talked about how important aggression is in poker, and how a new player is probably better off being a bad aggro because it's hard to teach that aggro instinct.

When I raised preflop, it appeared that he thought for a second before calling, but I'm not sure.

To be clear, I very much get the impression that Villain is capable of bluffing here.

My thoughts
He can't have overpairs because he would have raised and/or 3bet them preflop, so that's immediately out of the question.

Earlier on he was opening wide but then he tightened up his opening preflop to a normal amount. He also did have a limping range. So I'm not sure what he's doing with 22-44 preflop, but I feel like they have to be discounted somewhat because of the limp.

I discounted 22-44 slightly more due to my read preflop that he thought for a second before calling my open, because you'd think it'd be an instacall, but I could be overreacting to this information.

I think A5s, A2s, and 65s needs to be discounted for the same reasons as 22-44. A5o and A2o, perhaps not. I don't get the impression he'd play 65o pre, but I guess it's possible.

I discounted value hands somewhat because of the way he played the turn. It seems like an odd way to play value. It puts a ton of pressure on my overpairs, and he wants to get value from my overpairs. He could have gotten solid value by betting a normal amount on the turn and river from my overs. But again, I could be overthinking this part.

He's very capable of bluffing, and there's tons of good draws available to bluff with.

Comments

  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    I think I can agree with you he he likely doesn't have a great overpair, such as 10s-AA, as he just limp called, but poker rarely is a game of absolutes, but highly unlikely.

    Without tenancies, ranges, ect, just look at the betting and say "what story is being told, and does it make sense?" It's a wonky line for sure, but player dependent, it could make a lot of sense. You hand is very face up as an overpair, and you will almost never have very strong holdings here (a 2, a set, or a straight). He retains all of these holdings, and some bluffs.

    Next, look at the price your getting, and what % of the time you need to call down to avoid being "over bluffed". The hand that comes to mind that is an auto snap call is AA, not just cause AA lol duh, but due to the A5, A2 removal factor. But if we only call our aces, we are probably gonna not be calling enough. I don't wanna fire up the calculator and or equilab because I would have never bet the turn lol, but hey, can't do nothing bout that now. I think you need to break down: what hands like to limp, call. What hands might want to lead, and what hands check shove the turn. He will have some bluffs. He will have some semi-bluffs. I doubt he rarely has air. Now plug in 99 and see where you are at, but I'm betting that even against his semi-bluffs, he's got decent equity.
  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 61 ✭✭
    edited March 31
    Hey jfarrow13, thanks for the response. You think this is a good spot to look for a balanced continuing range? To me, this seemed like a good spot not to be balanced. To look for an exploitative response to his bet instead. It was an odd spot to be in that likely won't come up too often, I was towards the end of my session, and I don't play live too often, so future games against this opponent, especially in spots like this, are unlikely to occur too frequently.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,052 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Nice hand here. If you discount all his value hands, not sure what there is to say.

    Perhaps go over all these hands willing to take this line? The ones i see put you at a severe equity disadvantage.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 773 ✭✭✭
    IMO @300BB deep:

    Discounting any hand can very costly. Villains are incentivized to play almost anything, especially capable LAGS

    One pair hands are not that valuable. In general I think we should always be on the lookout for sensible pot controlling lines. Overpairs become great candidates for bluff catching through checking and check/call lines

    To answer the question in the title of your post:
    Yes 99 is a bluffcatcher at 300BB deep. Bet50BB/270BB Jam by villain/ call off is not a bluffcatching line

    Checking the turn so you can call the river is bluffcatching to me. I would have done this with all my overpairs

    As played i would just fold all my overpairs. My thoughts would be: Villain may be capable of buffing here, and if he did kudos to him, but I'm the one that handed him the golden opportunity

    IMO
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,052 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes, sully, his hand/range may want a non zero amount of protection but instead goes toward the pole, which is the real story of this spot.
  • MichaelBMichaelB Red Chipper Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
    Playing super deep against a super aggro opponent who's capable of making monstrous bluff in a spot like this, turn looks like a check back to me too. The best possible hand you can have is a crying call. Letting him know you can check back overpairs on the turn should also mean your river bluffs get more credit in the future. As played though, I'm not sure I can make this call unless I really know the guy.
  • Warrington_1Warrington_1 Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    Because you stated he was a good aggro and not a maniac ill give him 18.4% preflop. Thats all pocket pairs, AJo+, KQo, suited 1 gappers down to 65, ATs+, A5-A2s. This range is best 23% of the time. Flush Draw 9% and OESD 5%. I would put him on Ace high with a flush draw and gutshot. If you dont have a 9h in your hand he has 13 outs for the nuts.

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