Fold AK on QQ4AQ?

adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
edited April 2 in Live Poker Hands
$1/2 at Red Rock; ~100bb stacks; game is weak-passive; Villain is a middle aged white guy who I have no reads on

Preflop
Villain UTG
Hero BTN AKo

Villain opens to $10, folds to Hero, I 3bet to $35, Villain calls

Flop
$73
QQ4
Villain checks, I decide to check back.

Turn
$73
(QQ4)-A
Villain checks, I bet $60, he calls

River
$193
(QQ4A)-Q
Villain shoves for about $100. Hero???

My thoughts
Is he ever shoving something like KK or JJ here? I wouldn't think so. An ace looking to get value? I think he'd just check-call with aces. A bluff? I wouldn't think so. But AK is so high up in my range.
I call. Villain shows AA and wins the pot.
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Comments

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,889 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Calling down rivers against nits at a vegas locals' hang has never made anyone money. You're going to be making your win rate capitalizing on their lack of defense and felting their short stack errors.
  • CASEY MCASEY M Red Chipper Posts: 127 ✭✭
    Why not bet flop??
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,583 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 6
    Going off on a tangent for a second, let's say a player limps EP with A9 and you raise AQ and get called. The Axx flop goes check/bet/call, the same on an x turn, and then the case ace comes on the river. You'd be surprised how many villains think their hand just improved. At least I'm surprised how many people donk the river big here.

    Having said that, you can't win this hand, you can only chop at best. You need to chop at least half the time to break even (you lose $100 when you lose, and you win $100 when you win). If the player is a weak passive nit as has been hinted at, then we might guess at these combos....

    Let me digress for a second and advise you to add suits to all hands even if you don't think it's important, so you get in the habit of considering more detail and what you block. If you hold :AH: :KD: and the board is :QH: :QS: :4D: :AS: :QD:, you are slightly more likely to win money against a nitty player than if you held :AC: :KD: . There are only so many ways your opponent can have a Q in his hand here and if you can reduce some of them it might help.

    Let's see if we can give him some sort of range. Assuming the only hand he'll be raising with a Q is AQ, then he has 2 combos of quads. If he only raises AQs, then it depends on the board and your hand how many combos he has. He has 1 combo of AA. He has 6 combos of AK. That's probably about it. So that's in your favor.

    Your read is that he would check/call with "aces", which I assume means 1 ace in his hand. So based on that read this is a fold, right? If you mean he'd check/call with pocket aces, well I'm not sure about that.
  • FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    Gross spot. I do not think that you ever win this pot outright as played. At best, you are chopping. In real life, I probably have trouble folding, but if I take a breath and analyse the situation, I just do not think you are ever good taking this line. Also, the lead on the river (at these stakes) says to me that villain wants to get value from a premium hand and doesn't want it to go check-check.

    Also, I am curious why you check the flop? In a 3-bet pot with that is dry, when IP, I fire here at a high frequency (probably close to 100% considering my 3-bet vs. UTG open range).

    My line on this run out would've probably been this:
    Flop bet 1/3 pot on this dry board. When he calls, I suspect he has Qx, pocket pairs and floating you with A-high and/or some backdoor draws. His UTG open/call range is probably pretty strong.
    Turn: He checks, I check back for pot control given the range I assign him and I do not want to value own myself here when I am up against a Qx hand. Pot only ~$123 at this point
    River: I do probably call a reasonable sized river bet since his range is wider when I check-back the turn.
  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    Thanks for the advice guys. I'm glad I posted this hand. In real time I felt like my hand was too good to fold, but now I'm seeing that that isn't actually true.

    As for checking the flop, my thinking at the time was that Villain has a lot of pocket pairs when he opens UTG and that a lot of air is calling because the board is so dry (yes that isn't bad for me because my AK is ahead, but it isn't as good as getting a fold). I'm not saying I was correct in this choice though, just answering the question of what my reasoning was.

    @jeffnc I agree that suits are useful. I just didn't have time to record them during the live session.

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