Facing a weird raise on the river

adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 55 ✭✭
$1/2 at Red Rock; ~100bb stacks; game is weak-passive; Villain looks like he's about 65-70 years old, white male, seems to be loose-passive

Preflop
Hero AsJs in SB
Villain EP

Villain limps EP, two callers, BTN raises to $7, I decide to flat because BTNs iso range was strong, Villain then makes it $15, and we all call

Flop
$77
9s9h5d
Checks all around

Turn
$77
(9s9h5d)-Ks
Checks all around

River
$77
(9s9h5dKs)-5s
I made it $50, Villain reraises all in to about $165, folds to me.

My thoughts
I'm sitting here with the nut flush. Villain's play really confuses me here.

What 9's is he limp-minreraising preflop? What 9 is letting this get checked through to the river when we're so multiway.

Then again, this guy did not strike me as the type to pull off a big river bluff at all. Nor does he strike me as the type to go for some sort of thin-ish value with an overpair or small flush.
I reluctantly call and lose to J9o. Wut.
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Comments

  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 423 ✭✭✭
    adamzerner wrote: »

    Villain limps EP, two callers, BTN raises to $7, I decide to flat because BTNs iso range was strong, Villain then makes it $15, and we all call

    How is BTN's iso raising range strong? His range should naturally be at its widest with absolute position postflop. Also, I don't get the sense that BTN loves his hand given that he 3.5xs it with 3 limpers in front.

    I think we should be 3 betting this hand against a button open.
  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 55 ✭✭
    @Jordan Power BTN was a very passive player who loved to limp behind and didn't like raising or isoing.
  • Warrington_1Warrington_1 Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    I figure he has a king so he has showdown value and figures you have air. Its weird to see someone that old be loose passive also.
  • solDragonsolDragon Red Chipper Posts: 53 ✭✭
    Old guys in early position like to limp in with AA or KK and then back raise if they get someone to raise the pot for them. I don't understand the play, but it is a basic tenet of the OMC manual. I would probably give the guy credit for AA pre and just roll my eyes and fold.

    Against the button open, I would three bet to 25 and when the OMC four bets, I am out.

    In any case, there are not enough bluffs in a 1/2 game to call that all in on a paired board with a flush. As played, just fold.
  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 55 ✭✭
    @solDragon You'd fold pre after Villain raises to $15 even with the good pot odds?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,981 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you can explain this guy's min-ish raise pre and his thought process, his soul is yours.
  • osirus0830osirus0830 Red Chipper Posts: 71 ✭✭
    edited April 5
    In my player pool, they call raises like this sweetners and its overweight with JT and QJ. Double paired board, I fold.
  • solDragonsolDragon Red Chipper Posts: 53 ✭✭
    edited April 5
    @adamzerner I would have threebet to 25. If he back raises my threebet it is an easy fold. Playing AJ out of the blinds is a pain in the behind . Raise and take it is best.

    As played I would call the 15 and bail out at the first sign of trouble. I would have checked the flop but bet the turn when the second spade appeared. Probably 25 to see if the check around was disinterest or slow play. I would not call a raise or put anymore money in on the river.
  • FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    adamzerner wrote: »
    Villain limps EP, two callers, BTN raises to $7, I decide to flat because BTNs iso range was strong, Villain then makes it $15, and we all call

    What is his "strong" button iso range then? Why would BUT raise for such a small sizing if he were truly trying to iso? How can it possibly be so strong that you would not 3bet AJs from the SB?! Why willingly play a potentially multi-way pot with a strong hand in the SB guaranteed to be OOP the rest of the way? What is your 3-bet from SB versus BUT raise range (JJ+, AK)?

    I would raise to $30. You have a decent shot of taking down $13 dead money pre-flop. If you get 4-bet, fold. If the original raiser calls you have a better sense of his range (77-JJ, suited broadways assuming he 4bets his premiums) and you go to the flop with the initiative. As played, you are hoping to hit a hand. If you take the lead as the aggressor you can steal pots and exploit your opponent's post-flop errors. If the PRF is fairly tight as I infer from your post, I imagine he overfolds to aggression in 3-bet pots. If you continue with 1/3 pot c-bet does he defend the 75% of his range he is suppose to? How about ~67% if you bet 1/2 pot? On such a dry flop with the lead against likely an inferior opponent I think you want to get the button "all alone" so you can exploit him post-flop.
    adamzerner wrote: »
    River
    $77
    (9s9h5dKs)-5s
    I made it $50, Villain reraises all in to about $165, folds to me.

    Why bet 2/3 pot on the river here? I know it sucks, but (as played) I think I turn the nut flush into a bluff catcher here. Not sure too many call with worse for 2/3 pot against 3 opponents. I think you may get some interest with an A high or middling pocket pair or K that does not bet turn if you bet 1/4 to 1/3 pot.

    DISCLAIMER: I am a break-even player, so take any of my comments/suggestions with a grain of salt.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 772 ✭✭✭
    edited April 7
    persuadeo wrote: »
    If you can explain this guy's min-ish raise pre and his thought process, his soul is yours.

    LOL. I would normally ask if his soul is worth having but now there is $200 to get back

    confirmation bias: The tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories.

    Just because we have an iso range I don't think we should expect the other 99% of 1-2 players to have one :)
  • DavidDavid Red Chipper Posts: 59 ✭✭
    Two questions: First, when you bet $50 what hand were you expecting V to have to make a call? Second, if you checked and V shoved what would you do? Have not read spoiler yet.
  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 55 ✭✭
    @David
    First, when you bet $50 what hand were you expecting V to have to make a call?
    Worse flushes and kings.
    Second, if you checked and V shoved what would you do?
    Probably fold, because I assume he wouldn't be shoving (or betting) a king or a smaller flush for value.
  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 55 ✭✭
    @FishyFishy20

    In retrospect, I'm thinking more that a 3bet could have been good as a way to isolate and then take it down postflop, like you're saying. I'm not sure though, because I try to stay away from strong ranges. I interpreted his iso as strong because he was the kind of guy who was limping behind with everything and playing very passively, so when he decided to iso, I figure he's on something like 99+/AJ+. I know his size was small, but I think it's more likely to simply be a poor play than a sign of a wider ranger.

    If I'm not 3betting and we're deciding between folding or calling, I feel like I have to call. Because it's likely to go very multiway, I have a hand that does solidly multiway, especially against bad players, and I have a good price. Folding doesn't seem too crazy to me either though.

    I thought about checking the river, but it felt like too good of a hand to check, especially given the action. I figured I could get some value from worse flushes and kings, and maybe from random pocket pairs. I do think I sized it too large though, in retrospect I think $35 or $40 would have been a lot better if I'm targeting weaker stuff. Idk though, I could also definitely see a value bet being too thin here.

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