Can I fold a jack on JJ797?

adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
$1/2 at Red Rock; 100bb stacks; game is weak-passive; Villain looks like he's about 40 years old, white male, seems to pretty straightforward and can hand-read a little bit

Preflop
Hero Jc8c SB
Main Villain in BB
5 limpers, I call, BB checks, and we see a flop.

Flop
$12
JJ7
I bet $10, two callers

Turn
$42
(JJ7)-9
I bet $25, one caller

River
$92
(JJ79)-7
I bet $50, Villain raises all in to about $150

My thoughts
In the moment I'm thinking to myself that the raise seems super, super strong, but I basically have the nuts. On the other hand I think he'd just flat with a jack. No real need to reraise. He wasn't the type to look for thin value.
I call, he shows J9, and I lose.
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Comments

  • osirus0830osirus0830 Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
    For 100bb I don't think you can even fold a seven tbh. If you were ridiculously deep then it would be a decision because you don't want to call just to chop, but 100bb deep, I think that it's a snap call.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2
    Not playing trash from SB avoids such situation. Don't complete from SB just because "it's only 1$".
    Maybe this would be worth your read: https://redchippoker.com/complete-small-blind-in-live-poker/
  • osirus0830osirus0830 Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
    J8s from the SB is a snap call. If it were J8o then your point would be slightly more valid, but J8s should pretty much always be played from the SB in a limped pot.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 3
    Playing OOP MW with a hand with meh equity (weak draw) and kicker issue.
    How do you win money? !?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,923 -
    So what is a decent SB complete range...?

    Moderation In Moderation
  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 217 ✭✭✭
    edited April 3
    with 5 limpers, if you think BB is unlikely to squeeze, @osirus0830 is on the money regarding preflop. You simply are getting too too good of a price, at literally 13:1, even with rake. That Splitsuit video has a decent premise (most people complete too much in the SB), but lacks good justification for a 14% complete, as opposed to a 25%.

    The key with these hands is to look for draws and not to overvalue pairs with bad kickers. Jason Koon played a Triton cash hand last year where he flatted Qs9s on the button in a 4way pot, flop QdJd7d, UTG bet MP call Koon folds. You should be playing these hands extremely extremely tight unless you flop flush or straight draws.

    As played, you have to call with a J here, imo. There's 4 combos you lose to and like 50 you chop with. I think you can fold a 7, as V should really only be raising jacks full or better.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭✭
    Yes @Phil Ebbs , once we get trips, we have to call. It's way too high in our hands distribution to fold from the flop; and on river we split with any JX.

    Problem is then: if we call preflop, what's our strategy to win in the long run MW and OOP on these so many boards we kinda hit but not that strong. Like JTX ? KJX ? 8XX ? XcXcXx ? T9X ? If we get too much action, we will have to fold the equity we bought preflop and just be easy passive dead money.
    I'd agree to flat from BU - IF SB/BB are too passive AND IF villains are rather weak folder - since we could abuse our position, even MW. But being OOP, it's a no go to me.

    I agree it's such a great price. But J8s is way too weak IMHO to call with and hard to be +EV. (Raise is but another question)
  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 217 ✭✭✭
    edited April 3
    Red wrote: »
    Yes @Phil Ebbs , once we get trips, we have to call. It's way too high in our hands distribution to fold from the flop; and on river we split with any JX.

    Problem is then: if we call preflop, what's our strategy to win in the long run MW and OOP on these so many boards we kinda hit but not that strong. Like JTX ? KJX ? 8XX ? XcXcXx ? T9X ? If we get too much action, we will have to fold the equity we bought preflop and just be easy passive dead money.
    I'd agree to flat from BU - IF SB/BB are too passive AND IF villains are rather weak folder - since we could abuse our position, even MW. But being OOP, it's a no go to me.

    I agree it's such a great price. But J8s is way too weak IMHO to call with and hard to be +EV. (Raise is but another question)

    @Red, quick thought experiment: If EP min raises, 5 guys call, and you have Jc8c in the BB, are you folding? Because that is essentially the situation the SB has here, assuming BB doesn't squeeze very often. 12:1 pot odds against a bunch of capped ranges.

    Our strategy with these hands is to X-call or X-R on OESD, FD, and two pair or better. Regarding your exact questions, I would X-fold anything worse than top pair on the flop. I would X-call top pair one street if no one else calls the bet and look to fold to turns and rivers that don't turn me straight or flush draws.

    The one thing that makes this pretty close is rake. At a casino, 10% rake is pretty substantial and probably makes this play slightly winning. In a low rake game, this is 100% a limp-along.

    You are right that the hand is weak. But "IMHO it's too weak" is not convincing justification. With 12:1 pot odds, you should probably be calling here with like 35% of holdings, and suited cards that can make two different nut straights just have to be in there. Jc8c has something like 17% against a 37% limping range, the price is simply too good to be folding that equity.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »

    @Red, quick thought experiment: If EP min raises, 5 guys call, and you have Jc8c in the BB, are you folding? Because that is essentially the situation the SB has here, assuming BB doesn't squeeze very often. 12:1 pot odds against a bunch of capped ranges.
    Yes, I'm folding in this scenario as well (for the same reason).
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Our strategy with these hands is to X-call or X-R on OESD, FD, and two pair or better. Regarding your exact questions, I would X-fold anything worse than top pair on the flop. I would X-call top pair one street if no one else calls the bet and look to fold to turns and rivers that don't turn me straight or flush draws.
    Problem is: you flop 2P or better 2.5% of the time. You got FD and OESD what, 17%? (I'm at work, no flopzilla here).
    So either you're playing fit-or-fold postflop and over folding. Or you're overly aggro (aka raising with too few strong hands compare to all the draws to raise with). The only ok-ish scenario is to x/c with a draw and correct odds when many others called as well - still, are our outs alive (how often are we drawing against a better FD for ex) ?

    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    You are right that the hand is weak. But "IMHO it's too weak" is not convincing justification. With 12:1 pot odds, you should probably be calling here with like 35% of holdings, and suited cards that can make two different nut straights just have to be in there. Jc8c has something like 17% against a 37% limping range, the price is simply too good to be folding that equity.

    Against ONE limping range. You're facing several of them. Even if they are bad limping range, you're still losing equity here.
    Let alone there is still OOP in the field, uncapped and with position on you.
  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    edited April 3
    See https://premiumpokertools.com/hit-calculator/5ca4f0657e6d9c001559a229 for how J8s hits the flop.

    It makes two pair or better 5% of the time. If we assume that we get one more street of value (let's suppose a full pot bet), we'll be risking $1 to win $24, which is a profitable "2p+ mine". But being so multiway, I think that we can expect to win more than one street from one opponent when we hit. Yes, we've got the reverse implied odds as well (as I experienced in this hand), but "2p+ mining" still seems very +EV.

    We also make a pair, flush draw or straight draw about 40% of the time with J8s. I agree that these aren't the most pristine spots to be in because there'll be reverse implied odds when we're drawing and because we won't really be able to steal any pots when we're so multiway, but it still adds something to the playability of J8s.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 751 ✭✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »

    You are right that the hand is weak. But "IMHO it's too weak" is not convincing justification. With 12:1 pot odds, you should probably be calling here with like 35% of holdings, and suited cards that can make two different nut straights just have to be in there. Jc8c has something like 17% against a 37% limping range, the price is simply too good to be folding that equity.

    You also have produced an argument without convincing justification.
    But you do have more numbers in your statement so it's got that going for it

  • adamzerneradamzerner Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    edited April 3
    Also, I love splitsuit but I wanted to see what other pros have to say about completing the SB, because I gather from this discussion that there can be arguments made on both sides. I wasn't able to find much, but here is what Ed Miller says in The Course:
    First, I’ll address the one obvious difference between the two. In limped pots, you have the option to fold the small blind, but not the big blind. Naturally, you’ll fold the offsuit junk— unconnected hands with no card higher than a jack. So you’re folding J-4 and 9-6 and 5-2 and T-3. You’re completing the small blind (or raising) with most other hands—meaning any pair, any suited hand, any offsuit hand with high cards, or a hand with connected value. Don’t think too hard about this. This complete- or-fold decision doesn’t come up that often in the higher-stakes games you’ll eventually be playing. The difference in expected outcome between completing and folding some of these marginal hands at lower stakes is counted in pennies. And it would take a whole lot of complicated math to estimate how many pennies and with which hands. It’s not worth it. Don’t sweat it.
  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 217 ✭✭✭
    edited April 3
    Red wrote: »
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »

    @Red, quick thought experiment: If EP min raises, 5 guys call, and you have Jc8c in the BB, are you folding? Because that is essentially the situation the SB has here, assuming BB doesn't squeeze very often. 12:1 pot odds against a bunch of capped ranges.
    Yes, I'm folding in this scenario as well (for the same reason).
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    Our strategy with these hands is to X-call or X-R on OESD, FD, and two pair or better. Regarding your exact questions, I would X-fold anything worse than top pair on the flop. I would X-call top pair one street if no one else calls the bet and look to fold to turns and rivers that don't turn me straight or flush draws.
    Problem is: you flop 2P or better 2.5% of the time. You got FD and OESD what, 17%? (I'm at work, no flopzilla here).
    So either you're playing fit-or-fold postflop and over folding. Or you're overly aggro (aka raising with too few strong hands compare to all the draws to raise with). The only ok-ish scenario is to x/c with a draw and correct odds when many others called as well - still, are our outs alive (how often are we drawing against a better FD for ex) ?

    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    You are right that the hand is weak. But "IMHO it's too weak" is not convincing justification. With 12:1 pot odds, you should probably be calling here with like 35% of holdings, and suited cards that can make two different nut straights just have to be in there. Jc8c has something like 17% against a 37% limping range, the price is simply too good to be folding that equity.

    Against ONE limping range. You're facing several of them. Even if they are bad limping range, you're still losing equity here.
    Let alone there is still OOP in the field, uncapped and with position on you.

    1. If you fold this in the BB, you are leaving money on the table. Keep in mind that mathematically, BB should be defending a button 2x open like 90-95% of the time (assuming no rake). Add in rake and more players with capped ranges and yes, this required defence is going to go down, but it is not going to go below 25%.

    2. Yeah, you flop 2p or better something like 4.5%, and a FD or OESD 15%. So, you will get to continue on 19.5% of boards, plus some that check through. For 12:1 pot odds, slam dunk call. Again, it is crucial to realize that you are investing $1 into a pot of $22. You can check-fold here like 85-90% of the time and not be overfolding.

    4. The 17% was assuming against 5 other 37%ish limping ranges, not one player. Jc8c has more than 30% equity against a single 10% UTG open. (what equity calculation are you using that gives you 17% equity against one limper?!)


    Trust me, I am the biggest advocate for not limping preflop, but this is the one time in low-stakes games (where BB doesn't squeeze often enough) that this is a good play.

    @Sully , it is regrettable that you find my justification unconvincing, but I'm not sure how I can help you in this regard. Did you have a specific question, or were you just commenting that you didn't understand my answer?
  • BrantBrant Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    "Can I fold a jack on JJ797?"

    No. There's 4 combos that beat you, a few dozen you chop with, and a host of others V could do this with that you beat (not including bluffs). You're getting 3:1 to call, you're far ahead of 25% to win. Unless there's some supernatural read going on, how could you EVER fold it?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,889 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Strategically, once you get over the question of folding or not, completing or not, which are mostly equity/price driven, simple propositions or starting points, you want to move on to "how do i contort my actions so that i don't want to fold my best hands." In this and related fashions we start talking about expected value, the real measure of play.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,583 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 5
    Red wrote: »
    Don't complete from SB just because "it's only 1$".

    Agreed that you shouldn't call because of an absolute dollar amount (this is why so many people donate at online microstakes). But relatively speaking I'm not folding this hand getting 13:1 either and only .5% of my stack. Even SplitSuit's example wasn't that extreme.

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,583 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 5
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    If EP min raises, 5 guys call, and you have Jc8c in the BB, are you folding? Because that is essentially the situation the SB has here, assuming BB doesn't squeeze very often. 12:1 pot odds against a bunch of capped ranges.

    It's actually better for us in one sense because we're twice as deep. The only thing that improves in your scenario is no chance of BB raising us out.

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,583 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 5
    Back to the original question, the thing that strikes me is that OP seems rather surprised he got raised on the river, and bet without thinking of the consequences.

    A rule of thumb that I sometimes use is "If you have a strong hand that you don't want to fold, then don't take a line that might lead you to prefer folding."

    That advice is not going to hold up to rigorous math, with EV calculations over various lines and decisions against different ranges, but I think it will do as a start.

    So my advice would be for OP to look back over the hand and see if he could have taken a different line for which he gets paid some money relative to what his hand is worth given possible opponent hands, and at the same time doesn't fold away his chance to win some money or stack off if he loses. This isn't video poker, your hand is OK but not easy to get paid a whole lot either. In other words, your hand is not as good in a relative sense as it is in an absolute sense.

    hint: there are 6 players in this hand, all of whom can see the 2 jacks on the board very clearly.

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